Tornadoes in Minnesota, July 28, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
235 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Short term concerns remain convective/severe weather threat into
the evening. See latest SPC SWOMCD for particulars.

Expect upper trough and attendant MCV to exit into western WI
early this evening. This should take and severe threat east into
west central WI for the early evening. Will trend PoPs from the
west into the evening, and end them into Wisconsin late.
Otherwise, latest HRRR has continued to generate some widely
scattered convection with the secondary cold front progged into
western MN later in the evening. This could generate some isolated
showers as they die off after sunset. Clouds expected to remain
to the east with some breaks developing to the west overnight.
Then low level CAA and leftover RH will generate some clouds
across mainly the eastern half of the CWA into Monday. Cooler
850MB air drops over the region during the day (+8c) and with
clouds, northwest breeze, and dewpoints dropping into the 50s, it
will feel like an early fall day.

Clouds should erode to the east into Monday night with overnight
temperatures dropping off through the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

It looks to be quiet for most of the week as we sit downstream of
the large scale ridge with dry northwest flow much of the time.
We'll eventually see some precipitation chances return by the end
of the week as warm advection increases and we start to see some
moisture return on the backside of the surface high. Model
guidance is in good agreement through the period, leading to
decent confidence in a dry forecast through at least Thursday.
Could easily see a delay in the chance PoPs that are re-introduced
across the area Friday into Saturday given the persistence of the
surface ridge to our east and the intermittent nature to the warm
advection signal to our west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move east
into the early evening. Could see IFR conditions with heavy
rain/thunder across the northern and eastern TAF sites. Should see
intensification of activity over easter central MN by about 19z-
20z and move east across west central WI into the evening. This
has greatest potential of severe thunderstorms with strong winds
or an isolated tornado. Expect period of MVFR cigs as the system
exits. Secondary front moves into northwest CWA later this evening
but believe any convection potential is small. Lower clouds could
break some to the west but believe a mainly MVFR trend is in
storm for the northern and west central WI TAF sites into Monday
morning. Surface winds E-SE becoming W-NW into tonight as system
exits. Could see gusts to 23kt or so into Monday afternoon.

KMSP...Showers/thunder move back into the area by 20z and could be
heavy. Then decreasing trend expected after 00z as system exits to
the east. May see a brief period MVFR cigs after system exits and
again into Monday morning as colder air moves in. Should lift to
VFR Monday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon night...VFR. NW wind 5 kt.
Tue...VFR. NW wind 5 kt.
Wed...VFR. SE wind 5 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

MNZ041>044-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-291800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Benton-
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-
Renville-Redwood-
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and west
central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible into this evening. Some storms may be
severe with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

MNZ045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-291800-
Kanabec-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-
Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown-Nicollet-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and this evening. Some
storms may be severe with damaging winds and perhaps a couple
tornadoes, especially across east central Minnesota and west
central Wisconsin. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
evening.