Damaging Winds in Nevada, June 14 to 17, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
249 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled pattern will result in occasionally
breezy winds and mountain shower and thunderstorm chances into
early next week. Dry conditions are expected by the middle of next
week with temperatures gradually increasing to slightly above
normal.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Friday.

TONIGHT...
As of 2 PM, satellite imagery shows shallow cumulus,
areas of cumulus congestus, and isolated thunderstorms/convection
over higher terrain for districts north of Interstate 40. The mid
level shortwave, which has pushed modest moisture into the
region, has crossed the southern Sierra and is currently spinning
into southern Nevada; associated broad mid-level forcing will aid
in updraft develop over the terrain through the evening. Storms
will have a tendency to stick to the higher terrain, but a 10-20
mph northwesterly storm motion may push a few high-based showers,
possibly thundershowers, into adjacent valley (this includes the
Las Vegas valley). Activity should diminish this evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

With very dry low levels combined with nearly dry-adiabatic mid-
level lapse rates, strong outflow winds are possible with convection
through the afternoon and evening. Downdraft CAPE values suggest
that mature convection may produce locally gusty winds up to 30-45
MPH. There is a minimal flooding threat due to the very dry sub-
cloud layer; however, anchored storms may result in bouts of
moderate to heavy rain leading to minor flooding.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...
The aforementioned shortwave trough should exit
late this evening, with a weak shortwave ridging building in behind
it. Although moisture will linger across the region Saturday, mid
level warming will limit convection to the Sierra crest and Spring
Mountains. Elsewhere, dry conditions with shallow cumulus is
expected. On Sunday another shortwave will encroach on the region
and bring another round of gusty south winds that may peak around 25-
35 MPH. Along with the wind, thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern and central Great Basin along with the Sierra. As the
trough moves across the region Monday winds will relax and afternoon
storms are expected to fire up again over the central and southern
Great Basin. Temperatures will be moderated by the passing wave
and stay a right around normal for mid-June.

NEXT WEEK...
Moisture will dwindle on Tuesday, leaving dry conditions through
the remainder of the week. Synoptically, a Rex Block is progged to
develop in the eastern Pacific which may allow more weak
perturbations into region keeping temperature near normal and
bringing increased rain/thunder chances the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A passing weather disturbance, which has prompted
showers and isolated thunderstorms today, will move east of the
region tonight. As it does, storm activity will diminish. Dry
conditions will persist in lower deserts through the next week
allowing fuels to reach near-critical levels. Another disturbance is
expected to track over the region on Sunday which will increase
winds across most of the region. Near-critical fuels, gusty winds,
and low humidity will elevate fire risk/potential on Sunday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds will remain relatively light out of
the east to southeast this afternoon outside of any wind shifts due
to shower and storm outflow. Storms have been developing over the
higher elevations of the Spring Mtns and slowly drifting
southeastward into the valley. Hi-res model guidance continues to
pick up on an outflow boundary moving through the terminal with a
westerly component which looks like the more likely scenario between
22z-02z. However, the speed and direction will be solely dependent
on where storms/showers decide to develop across the valley.
Activity will wane after sunset and winds will become light at 8
knots or less favoring the southwest overnight. On Saturday, winds
will remain light following near to diurnal trends with drier
conditions expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds through this evening will favor the southwest to
west in areas south of Interstate 40 and and north to northwest
north of Interstate 40 with gusts up to 20-25 knots outside of
showers and storms. Strong, erratic outflow winds will be possible
in the vicinity of showers and storms which will continue to develop
through this evening across southern Nevada and Inyo County. The
exception will be the western Mojave Desert where gusts up to around
30 knots will be possible again overnight. Elsewhere, lighter winds
are expected overnight into Saturday with isolated shower and storm
activity possible during the afternoon across the southern Great
Basin.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Boothe
AVIATION.................Guillet

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1140 AM PDT FRI JUN 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE ENTERPRISE        36.00N 115.23W
06/13/2019                   CLARK              NV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DUST DEVIL LOFTED DEBRIS INTO A VEHICLE
            CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO THE WINDSHIELD.

&&

AB