Hail in Montana, June 14, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
948 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Sent an update this morning to try and pick out the best model
agreement for storm development later today. Expecting
thunderstorms to begin over central Montana around mid-day, then
spread eastward through the afternoon hours. Some of the storms
could be marginally severe with gusty winds and small hail.
BMickelson

Previous discussion: A surface low is near the NE corner of MT
early this morning. That low will slowly drift into western ND
today. A cold front currently over Alberta and Saskatchewan will
move south across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave trough will accompany the front along with an unstable
airmass. This will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms to
develop as CAPE rises to around 1500 j/kg and lifted index falls
to near
-5. With SPC having marginal risk of severe weather, will mention
the possibility of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening.

The shortwave trough remains over the area tonight which will keep
the showers and thunderstorms going. The trough will drift to
eastern Saskatchewan late tonight which will diminish the chance
for storms in the west.

Another cold front is expected Saturday afternoon with NW flow
aloft over the area. This will bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms to most of the region.

The next wave in NW flow aloft is expected Sunday afternoon with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday looks mainly dry with surface high pressure.

Then, a slow moving upper low is expected for the mid and late
part of next week which will bring a wet pattern to the forecast
area. Forrester

&&

.AVIATION...

Expected Flight Category: VFR most of time. Brief periods of MVFR
to IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening..

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and tonight. Strong erratic winds, brief heavy
downpours, and lightning will be the biggest aviation impacts with
these storms.

Synopsis: A cold front is expected today with another cold front
on Saturday. Unsettled weather will continue into next week with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. Ceilings should
typically remain VFR through the period as well.

Winds: Light and variable early, then, winds will become
northwest winds of 10-15 knots by late morning. NW winds will
continue tonight around 10 knots. Gusty and erratic winds will be
possible near active showers and thunderstorms the next couple of
days.

BMickelson

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
102 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

MTZ016-060-142000-
Southwest Phillips-Central and Southeast Phillips-
102 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS AND
NORTHERN PETROLEUM COUNTIES...

At 101 PM MDT, a couple strong thunderstorms were located just
northwest and southeast of the Zortman area, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Zortman, Fourchette and Landusky.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4792 10889 4792 10863 4799 10861 4798 10855
      4798 10844 4805 10843 4783 10779 4759 10805
      4759 10813 4758 10815 4785 10889
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 296DEG 16KT 4782 10839

Mottice

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
114 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

MTZ021-142015-
Petroleum-
114 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PETROLEUM COUNTY...

At 112 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles southwest
of Flatwillow, or 21 miles north of Roundup, moving east at 20 mph.
This storm will be slow to move across Highway 87 and may lead to
localized flooding.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Flatwillow.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4684 10863 4684 10862 4691 10861 4686 10836
      4676 10822 4675 10863
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 263DEG 16KT 4675 10863

Mottice