Thunderstorms produced lots of hail close to the Kansas state line on this Thursday morning. Some of the hail was as large a tennis balls.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Thunderstorms produced lots of hail close to the Kansas state line on this Thursday morning. Some of the hail was as large a tennis balls. Between 5 and 6 AM CST, a lone thunderstorm developed over Furnas county. This storm rapidly developed into a supercell and produced tennis ball size hail just south of Orleans, and 2 inch hail near Republican City. This storm subsequently moved east along Highway 136, producing severe hail between the size of quarters and golf balls all the way to Superior. As this storm was in progress, other storms began developing along Highway 136. However, the only other storm to become severe occurred over northeast Nuckolls and northwest Thayer counties, where it produced hail up to the size of golf balls. The supercell ceased producing severe hail after Superior as it merged with other storms over Thayer county and become multicellular. For a while, storms trained along Highway 136 through 11 AM CST. There was one report of 2.08 inches of rain over southwest Thayer county.
During the nighttime hours, a strong cold front had been sagging south through Nebraska. By dawn, it had dropped into northern Kansas, but its forward progress had slowed to the point that it had temporarily become stationary. While this occurred, weak low pressure moved out of southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas. This increased the lift atop the front which resulted in the elevated storms atop the cooler air mass. The morning radiosonde launch at North Platte, NE indicated southeast winds at 30 kt at 850 mb, just above the frontal surface. The upper-level flow was zonal across the majority of the U.S., but observed flow in the mid-levels showed that there was a subtle shortwave trough at 700 mb. MUCAPE was just over 1000 J/kg with very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km. Deep layer shear from the lifting condensation level was between 35 and 40 kt.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 28, 5:50 AM CST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 650 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 426 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 The long expected cold front has made its way south to almost clear our CWA. A surface low is forming along the front in Kansas and helping to slow the front down. North of the front, elevated convection is expected to erupt this morning near the Nebraska and Kansas border, with much of the precip possibly landing just on the Nebraska side, the way it appears, getting some help from the low-level jet in the matter of some modest low-level convergence. It looks like there will also be a mid-level low-amplitude piece of energy traversing the area about the same time. Considering that PWs are a bit high for this time of year, and the fact that there may be a little ice left in the ground, along with a fairly saturated ground to begin with, I would not be entirely surprised if we had at least some ponding of water if we can really get some convection going, and it appears by looking at short-term models, the place to watch this morning will be areas southeast of the tri-cities in Nebraska, namely the Superior, Hebron, and Geneva. Enough instability hangs around to give us a small hailer up to the size of nickels this morning, especially in the south half of the CWA. After the low- level jet and associated convection moves off to the east, our thunder chances decrease dramatically. We will maintain a pretty stiff northeast breeze today behind the front, and highs today in the 50s will be a far cry from our 70s from yesterday. Wind will likely decrease a bit by afternoon. Models have consistently forecasted a lull in precipitation by this evening, and I'm continuing to agree. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 426 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 As another shortwave trough tries to pull out of the Rockies onto the Plains by Friday morning, isentropic lift will ensue over our area, with increasing moisture. I expect a resurgence of precip coming in by Friday morning, and lasting into the evening. A good punch of cold air advection finally gives us enough cold air to produce some snow by Friday evening, but by then, most of the precipitation should be just about done, and snow amounts still look like they will be an inch or less. Interestingly, the GFS has bumped up snow amounts a tad in our northern CWA, while the ECMWF backed off from its previous run, and the NAM keeps most of the major accumulating snow well to our northwest. One general theme from models is clear, and that the most snow stays west and northwest of us. Its looking more and more like this cold snap will be rather short-lived before our next nice rebound next week. We will still struggle to top 40 degrees for Friday and Saturday, but by Monday, we should be hitting upper 50s, which is near normal for us, and we will be back into the 60s and 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday as an amplified upper ridge moves through. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday) Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase this morning, but should remain mostly to the south of the terminals, although the terminals will be on the normal fringe of convection. Ceilings will likely dip to MVFR during the day for a short time until the convection moves off to the east by late afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && SHORT TERM...Heinlein LONG TERM...Heinlein AVIATION...Heinlein
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 636 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 291200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 636 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorm chances will continue today, with the better chances mainly along and south of Interstate 80 and into north central Kansas. There will again be the potential for a few stronger storms, capable of producing hail near the size of nickels and wind gusts near 40 MPH, mostly south of Highway 6. Some storms could produce heavy rain and produce localized flooding, especially areas south of Highway 6 and east of Highway 281. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Accumulating snow is possible primarily Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow amounts are currently forecast to be an inch or less, but be sure to monitor the forecast for any possible changes. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight, but any reports of hail, strong winds, and flooding would be appreciated. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Heinlein
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Hastings NE 636 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019 NEZ072-073-082-083-281215- Phelps NE-Harlan NE-Gosper NE-Furnas NE- 636 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS... SOUTHEASTERN GOSPER...NORTHERN FURNAS AND NORTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT... At 635 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Hendley, or 25 miles north of Norton, moving northeast at 30 mph. Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Loomis, Edison, Atlanta, Hendley and Hollinger. LAT...LON 4009 9999 4026 10008 4049 9949 4025 9935 TIME...MOT...LOC 1135Z 247DEG 27KT 4021 9995 Heinlein
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
712 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019
NEZ082-083-281245-
Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
712 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FURNAS AND HARLAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...
At 711 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oxford, or 20 miles southwest of Holdrege, moving east at 20 mph.
Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Alma, Oxford, Orleans, Stamford, Huntley and Ragan.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4035 9942 4035 9929 4006 9926 4006 9968
4033 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 1211Z 259DEG 19KT 4024 9966
FayThe Grand Island radar (KUEX), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:20 UTC.
9 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail along this path ranged from quarter to tennis ball size.
Hail ranged from nickel to golf ball size.
Hail ranged from quarter to golf ball size.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, March 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 806523, 806531, 806532, 806533, 806535, 806537, 806528, 806539, 806540.