Strong Wind in Florida, March 28, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
408 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers badgering the Atlantic waters and east coast
throughout the day today will continue to linger during the
overnight hours and for most the day tomorrow. POPs tonight top out
at 30 percent with POPs tomorrow topping out near 20 percent. With
pretty decent capping layer in place, noted by MFL's 28/12Z
sounding, thunderstorms do not look very likely; however, a brief
storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out. Along with the rain
came gusty N/NE winds blowing across the region. These winds are
expected to gradually taper off overnight into tomorrow.

Synoptically speaking, the SW oriented trough and attendant surface
low pressure east of the Bahamas will continue to slide farther east
across the Atlantic tonight, gradually relaxing the pressure
gradient in the process. As high pressure swoops in across the
peninsula tonight, a more NE wind component will prevail for Friday.
With this in mind, breezy winds are still expected (not as gusty
as today with sustained winds at 8-15 mph with 15-25 mph gusts
along the east coast) as it will take a bit of time for winds to
slacken. Winds will continue to veer more E and weaken by
Saturday and SE by Sunday.

For Friday through Sunday, some low-level moisture (with model
derived PWAT values around 1.0-1.1 inches) will sneak the chance
for rain showers across the region, moreso around the east coast
metro and Atlantic waters. Thunderstorms are not expected with
this as mid- upper level ridging abounds. Highs are expected in
the low to mid 80s across the region Saturday and Sunday, with
upper 80s across the SW interior.

For next week, still a little back and forth as the timing and
strength of the next system to affect the area. GFS is running a
bit faster than ECMWF, but overall time frame looks to be next
Tuesday into Wednesday. The system across the southeastern US will
work its way down the peninsula early next week, however, mid-
upper level flow will be fairly zonal at the time and the front
looks to have trouble making it this far south. Right now,
guidance suggests it to stall to the north of Lake
Okeechobee. The next mid to upper level trough is expected to
swing into the southeastern US shortly thereafter, likely leading
to another low pressure system developing somewhere over or near
Florida as we head into mid next week. Specific impacts remain up
in the air, but expect at least a return to scattered showers and
storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface low continuing to trek eastward of the Bahamas will allow
winds to gradually slack throughout tonight into tomorrow, though
they will still be breezy. 20-25 kt winds will prevail across the
Atlantic tonight before weakening to 15-20 kt by Friday with 15-20
kt winds across the Gulf. In concerns to seas, 2-4 ft in the Gulf
waters with 10-14 ft in the Atlantic, especially near the Gulf
Stream. Atlantic seas will continue to diminish throughout the day
Friday and should be under 10 ft by the late morning hours.

With this in mind, hazardous seas are expected to linger for
portions of the Atlantic into Friday night as the remainder of
swells sneak in from further north.

Therefore, the SCA currently in effect for the Atlantic has been
extended through 4 PM Friday for all waters and 8 PM for the
northern Atlantic waters. Additionally, the SCA currently in
effect until 11 AM Friday stays untouched for Biscayne Bay.

Lastly, allowed the SCA across the Gulf to expire this afternoon
as winds and seas quieted down; however, SCEC remains in place
through Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
VCSH remains in the TAF for east coast terminals through tonight,
except for KPBI. Generally VFR conditions expected for the period
but quick moving SHRA may produce brief MVFR cigs. Gusty NE winds
expected to continue across all terminals before waning a bit
overnight, and becoming breezy again tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Strengthening storm system to the east of the Bahamas will
continue to bring hazardous beach conditions along the Atlantic
beaches tonight into Friday.

Surf heights are expected to peak around 8-11 feet tonight along
the Palm beaches, with 6 to 8 feet lingering into early Friday
evening. Therefore, extended the High Surf Advisory to 5 PM
Friday evening for Palm Beach County. For Broward and Miami-Dade
counties, surf heights should peak around 3-6 ft tonight, just
below the high surf criteria of 7 feet. With that in mind, given
the longer period fresh swell filtering down and potential for
erosion, especially along the northern county beaches, will keep
the current High Surf Advisory in effect as is for Broward
County.

A Coastal Flood Advisory can't be ruled out, but confidence is
growing stronger that it will likely not be needed. Regardless, will
have to monitor tide gauges with the next few high tides to see
what the departures are.

High risk of rip currents remains in effect for Atlantic beaches
through at least Friday. The threat is likely to linger through the
upcoming weekend, especially as winds become more easterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  65  78  66  80 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  67  78  68  80 /  20  20  20  10
Miami            66  80  67  81 /  20  20  20  10
Naples           60  80  62  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ168.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ651-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ630.

GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...03/Fell
MARINE...03/Fell
AVIATION...11/HVN
BEACH FORECAST...03/Fell

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1047 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
290300-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1047 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is forecast at all
Atlantic beaches today.

Winds: Breezy winds are forecast across the forecast area with winds
of at least 20 knots across all waters. This will create hazardous
boating conditions for all waters.

Waves: Waves of 8 to 12 feet are forecast across all Atlantic
waters, with waves of 14 to 17 feet forecast in and near the Gulf
Stream. Waves of 3 to 6 feet are forecast across the Gulf waters.
This will create hazardous boating conditions for all waters.

Coastal Flooding: Increasing swells and waves will cause high surf at
Palm Beach County and Broward County beaches today. Minor coastal
flooding and beach erosion will be possible. This will cause
hazardous swimming conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Hazardous boating conditions are expected to continue through the
end of the week.

There is a enhanced risk of rip currents on Atlantic beaches
through at least Friday. There is a continued potential for beach
erosion and minor coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.