Between the mid-afternoon of Tuesday the 25th and early morning of Wednesday the 26th, mainly the eastern half of South Central Nebraska endured two rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, with the first round by far the most impactful as it produced some of the largest hail of 2019 within the area (up to 3 diameter). m.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Between the mid-afternoon of Tuesday the 25th and early morning of Wednesday the 26th, mainly the eastern half of South Central Nebraska endured two rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, with the first round by far the most impactful as it produced some of the largest hail of 2019 within the area (up to 3 diameter). Examining Round 1 in more detail, it unfolded from 4-8 p.m. CDT within several counties south of Interstate 80 and east of Highway 183, but with the majority of action focused within Adams, Webster and Nuckolls counties. The primary player here was an initially isolated, high-precipitation supercell that developed over western Adams County, gradually growing upscale into more of a supercell cluster as it surged southeastward before departing into northern Kansas. This storm was a prolific hail-producer, particularly within southwestern Adams County where there were numerous reports of stones ranging from quarter to larger than baseball size. The area in and near Holstein was particularly hard-hit, as hail as large as 3 was documented there by an NWS employee (although the vast majority of stones were smaller than this). As this massive storm sank farther south it became increasingly outflow-dominant and more of a wind-producer, with several gusts of 55-70 MPH reported in the Guide Rock and Superior areas. Independent of this storm of the day, other severe storms flared up during the afternoon and early evening within counties such as Clay/Fillmore/Franklin, producing hail of 2 diameter near Ong and golf ball size in Naponee. Rainfall-wise, though not extreme, amounts of 1.50-2.50 fell within much of Adams/Webster counties. This led to minor flooding on the Little Blue River, with the gauge near Deweese cresting at 10.3 feet on the afternoon of the 26th (flood stage 10 ft.).
After Round 1 departed into Kansas, all was quiet on the local front for several hours. However, Round 2 got underway after 1 a.m. CDT on the 26th and persisted until past sunrise. This round of convection was not as intense, mainly producing heavy rainfall, sub-severe wind gusts and small hail within northeastern portions of the area (mainly northeast of an Ord-York line). However, there were a few severe-criteria reports including quarter size hail in York and a 61 MPH wind gust near Waco. Technically, Round 2 consisted of a few separate areas of storms: one small cluster that blew up over York County along the nose of a nocturnal low level jet and another larger complex that expanded across several northeastern counties between 3-7 a.m. CDT before finally weakening and departing the vast majority of South Central Nebraska by 9 a.m. CDT. Rainfall totals of 1.50-3.00 were fairly common with this early-AM activity, highlighted by NeRAIN totals of 3.60 near York and 3.33 north of Osceola. Resultant flooding was relatively minor, including along the Clear Creek in northern Polk County, which crested at 8.3 feet on the morning of the 27th (flood stage 8 ft.).
For yielding so many severe weather reports, this was actually a fairly weakly-forced event in the mid-upper levels, with Nebraska positioned along the southern periphery of broad westerly flow and no significant shortwave troughs of note. However, the intense afternoon-early evening convection was clearly tied to low-level convergence along a west-east oriented, quasi-stationary surface front. As afternoon temperatures climbed into the upper 80s F, the mesoscale environment became quite supportive of severe storms (including supercells), featuring 2000-3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear. Later in the night, Round 2 was fueled by a classic increase in convergence/moisture transport within the exit region of a 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 3:58 AM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 458 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 A bit of a tricky forecast this morning as a weak frontal boundary is slowly sagging south across the local area. A few thunderstorms along this boundary resulted in very strong winds across our northern counties early in the night, but have since tracked well to the northeast of the local area with only a few light showers or sprinkles evident on radar imagery early this morning. With the aforementioned frontal boundary not expected to move much over the course of the day...this front could provide the focus for shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon or evening...as evidenced in a few of the short term models. The tricky part, however, is the strength of the CAP as ample instability and shear exist for severe thunderstorm development late in the day, but forcing is a bit in question. While some models...such as the NAM nest and GFS have enough forcing to trigger fairly robust thunderstorm activity, other fairly reliable short term models such as the RAP and HRRR have been slow to catch on...although the latest runs of both these models are now also firing convection late this afternoon...albeit not quite as widespread as some other guidance. Given this...and the fact SPC has now placed parts of our area in an enhanced risk for severe weather this afternoon...there is growing confidence for afternoon convection...which if it initiates...should rapidly become severe given the ample instability of 3-4 KJ/kg along with 35KTS or so of 0-6 KM shear. If this activity does fire, it looks to be mainly a late afternoon through evening event...as the LLJ should focus convection to the east northeast of the local area late in the evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through the extended periods as a well advertised upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the plains. While there will be a couple small chances for thunderstorms...with Wednesday night being the best looking chance at the moment...most of the area will likely remain dry through the upcoming weekend as temperatures soar into the mid 90s...which is about 5 to 9 degrees above typical late June highs. Looking at some of the details...Wednesday is expected to start off dry...with an upper level disturbance in westerly flow expected to provide at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the local area during the evening and overnight hours. This disturbance should be riding over todays front as it lifts north...providing a bit of a focus for evening and overnight thunderstorms. With the aforementioned boundary then well to the north and heights rising aloft...a hot end to the work week and upcoming weekend is of fairly high confidence...along with dry conditions...as there is little in the way of disturbances to speak of undercutting the upper level ridge and impacting the local area through the end of the week and into next weekend. Late in the weekend...the ridge is expected to flatten in response to a low crossing near the Canadian border...bringing back small chances of precip late Sunday night through next Monday. This should also bring some relief in temperatures to the region...with highs creeping back down closer to normal to start next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 A modest LLJ is developing ahead of a weak trough/cold front forecast to cross the area overnight. Expect a few VCSHs or VCTSs as this front passes by...with LLWS associated with the LLJ diminishing around daybreak. Already seeing some returns approach the forecast area...and with modest instability aloft...think a few of these showers and thunderstorms will hold together as they cross the terminals over the next 6 hours. Surface winds overall will be light and fairly variable through the period...with the trough stalling across the local area during the daytime hours Tuesday...generally resulting in a weak pressure gradient and winds less than 10 KTS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && SHORT TERM...Rossi LONG TERM...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Hastings NE 517 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 261015- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 517 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary near the Nebraska and Kansas state line during the afternoon through evening hours, some of which could rapidly reach severe limits. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will both be possible with the strongest storms. In addition...an isolated tornado or two can also not be ruled out...especially across north central Kansas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday night and again Sunday night through Monday afternoon. A few storms could reach severe limits Wednesday night...with large hail and strong thunderstorm wind gusts both a concern. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Rossi
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Hastings NE 113 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 NEZ039-040-046-047-250700- Valley NE-Howard NE-Greeley NE-Sherman NE- 113 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY...VALLEY...SHERMAN AND HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT... At 112 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 16 miles north of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area to near Comstock to near Ansley. Movement was east at 50 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms and associated outflows. Locations impacted include... Ord, Greeley, St. Paul, Loup City, Spalding, Scotia, Arcadia, Dannebrog, North Loup, Wolbach, Litchfield, Elba, Ashton, Farwell, Rockville, Hazard, Elyria, Cotesfield, Cushing and Fort Hartsuff State Park. LAT...LON 4174 9829 4105 9829 4105 9921 4174 9921 TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 272DEG 44KT 4210 9923 4163 9923 4124 9942 Rossi
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
205 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 AM TSTM WND GST ORD AIRPORT 41.62N 98.95W
06/25/2019 M75 MPH VALLEY NE ASOS
&&
KSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
218 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW ORD 41.62N 98.95W
06/25/2019 M52 MPH VALLEY NE MESONET
MESONET STATION NB052 ORD 2N.
&&The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:45 UTC.
22 hail, 5 thunderstorm wind, 2 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A CoCoRaHS station recorded a rain total of 3.60 inches for the day, with rain ongoing at observation time. Most rain fell early morning of the 26th.
An NERAIN observer recorded a 24-hour rainfall of 3.33 inches 7 miles north of Osceola. Another NERAIN observer recorded a 24-hour rainfall of 3.25 inches 4 miles west northwest of Shelby. Most rain fell early morning of the 26th.
Hail ranging in size from ping pong to tennis ball size was reported along this path.
Hail ranging in size from golf balls to 3 inches in diameter was reported. About a half hour after the hail had stopped, an NWS employee reported that the diameter of hail left on the ground was up to 3 inches.
Hail ranging in size from quarters up to 2 inches in diameter was reported.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
Quarter to half dollar size hail was reported.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 70 MPH.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
Quarter to golf ball size hail was reported.
Overflow water from Pawnee Lake damaged a short section of railroad track. There was still a small amount of standing water at 3 pm.
A 61 MPH wind gust was measured by a mesonet station located approximately one-half mile east of Waco.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 837641, 837642, 837482, 837484, 837485, 837489, 837492, 837501, 837507, 837522, 837581, 837585, 837590, 837591, 837595, 837596, 837599, 837600, 837603, 837608, 837606, 837610, 837607, 837613, 837616, 837617, 837636, 837648, 837637, 837639.