Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 12, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
248 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

An upper level trough was currently traversing the area. The
first round of showers associated with the surface front is
currently exiting the area. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms...associated with the left exit region of an
approaching jet max...has developed over northwest Missouri and is
currently diving southward. Instability is still attempting to
recover and shear remains rather weak. While overall convective
coverage will be scattered...believe that the severe potential
will be limited to just a few isolated storms and marginal in
nature for this afternoon and evening.

Convection should be out of the area by midnight as surface high
pressure begins to build into the area. Thursday should be dry and
fair with temperatures about 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

As high pressure pushes to the east Thursday night into
Friday...the Gulf opens up again and moisture and warm air
advection begin to take place. In addition...the upper level
pattern begins to shift from a current northwest flow to a more zonal
flow by Friday morning to a southwest flow pattern by Satruday
evening. This will push a surface front down into central Missouri
by Sunday where it will stall and meander for the remainder of
the forecast period.

Unfortunately...this sets up the region for several rounds of
potentially heavy rainfall. As upper level waves move through the
southwest flow...they will bring up Gulf moisture that will
interact with the front to produce more rain. The period of
heaviest rains look to be Sunday into Monday evening and then
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Given the above normal rainfall so
far this year...this system will need to be monitored closely.

Temperatures will moderate to more seasonal levels by Saturday as
the moisture and warm air again returns to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

Upper level trough currently extends along the MO-KS border with
an associated surface front roughly bisecting the CWA at this time.
Ahead of the front...showers have continued to move eastward
across the area. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions are occurring within
the rain areas in the vicinity of the front.

Behind the rain area...the atmosphere is beginning to destabilize
once again. Would expect showers and thunderstorms to begin
redeveloping after 20z mainly along and east of Highway 65.
Convection is expected to be scattered in nature with MVFR
conditions occuring in the vicinity of this activity.

Conditions should begin to improve from west to east as the front
pushes eastward. Expect SKC-SCT250 in the terminal areas after 03z
and for the remainder of the area after 05z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
348 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-132100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
348 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into the mid
 evening. Some of the stronger storms...mainly north of Highway
 60...will be capable of producing hail to the size of quarters
 and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

 More showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Friday
 through Wednesday. This system need to be monitored closely as
 the potential exists for heavy rain to occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Gaede

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

MOZ081-130000-
Laclede MO-
622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LACLEDE COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

At 622 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Lebanon, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon...                        Bennett Spring State Park...
Morgan...                         Conway...
Phillipsburg...                   Bennett Springs...
Twin Bridges...                   Competition...
Eldridge...                       Lynchburg...
Sleeper...                        Falcon...
Dry Knob...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 112 and 140.

LAT...LON 3789 9263 3784 9260 3780 9256 3780 9254
      3748 9225 3748 9285 3772 9284 3772 9286
      3789 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 334DEG 30KT 3780 9275

Titus