The Mississippi River rose above flood stage at the end of the month in response to snowmelt and rain in the northern parts of the river basin.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The Mississippi River rose above flood stage at the end of the month in response to snowmelt and rain in the northern parts of the river basin.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 6:10 AM CST, 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 610 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 610 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 Updated aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 Despite increasing clouds, we will have one last day of unseasonably warm temps today as southerly winds pick up ahead of an approaching cold front. The surface wind shift to the northwest is expected to begin this afternoon in the northwestern tier of counties, and should be complete by about nightfall. Due to quasi-zonal flow aloft and westerly 850 mb winds, moisture return will be lacking with this feature. Thus, all we might see may be virga and sprinkles today. Tonight and Thu, with colder air in place near the surface, shortwave energy aloft is forecast to produce light pcpn, the bulk of it after 12Z Thu across parts of the region, with lesser chances in areas north of I-64. Thermal profiles currently indicate the possibility of a brief period of freezing rain early Thu, mainly across southeastern MO and southernmost IL, with some sleet possible closer to I-64. Confidence in the occurrence of this wintry pcpn and therefore the resulting impacts on the morning commute, was not quite high enough to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. We will default to the day shift for re-evaluation. An SPS will be written in its place for now. Rain probabilities will wane Thu night, leaving our region dry and mostly cloudy until possibly Fri night, when more low-amplitude shortwave energy aloft may produce a little light rain. Temps are forecast to moderate a bit by then. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 Models continue to be in a great deal of flux which is not unusual as we try to transition seasons. The models continue to differ in their timing of the weekend system. Although they do agree on a cold front coming through but the timing and exact placing of synoptic features continue to differ in solutions. One thing they are coming in better agreement with much colder solutions with not as great a spread in temperatures. In fact the blend has us struggling to even reach freezing for highs on Monday. The GFS is starting to look like the outlier. The FV3...ECMWF and Canadian model seem to be in better agreement on the system and timing. So will weight the solution in that direction. The blend of course has taken somewhat of an average of the proposed solution. So we will probably have pops in residence longer than what actually comes to fruition. Either way we will have weather this weekend and Sunday is looking like the better chance of any wintry precipitation. It will likely start out as rain Saturday as a secondary front moves through the region. In its wake an Arctic blast of cold air will advect in on gusty northerly winds. This will help change over post frontal precipitation to snow Sunday. Its still a bit early for exact amounts but an inch of snow looks possible. However the greatest impact will likely be the cold temperatures and gusty north winds. && .AVIATION... Issued at 610 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 A cold front will sweep through the region today, with little pcpn associated with it. The wind shift from southwest to northwest will occur from midday through nightfall, depending on location. Meanwhile, wind speeds should remain below 15 knots. MVFR cigs are forecast to progress eastward today, and should remain in place over the region through the 24 hour TAF period, except late tonight roughly north of I-64 where cigs may go VFR. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...KH AVIATION...DB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 500 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-281100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 500 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. Minor to major flooding continues in our region on most rivers, their tributaries, and nearby low lying areas. Refer to the latest Flood Warnings and Statements for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is a chance of light freezing rain or sleet late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. There may be minor amounts of accumulating snow later Saturday night into Sunday over the area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 435 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 ILZ084>086-088>093-MOZ076-086-087-100-107-110-111-272200- JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER- PULASKI-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- STODDARD-SCOTT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, HARRISBURG, JONESBORO, VIENNA, GOLCONDA, ELIZABETHTOWN, CAIRO, MOUND CITY, PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT, VAN BUREN, BLOOMFIELD, AND SIKESTON 435 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 ...Wintry precipitation is possible early Thursday... A period of light freezing rain is possible across most of southeastern Missouri and southernmost Illinois early Thursday, beginning before daybreak in the Missouri Ozark Foothills as temperatures fall below freezing. Sleet may also occur closer to the I-64 corridor. This light precipitation is expected to change over to rain by afternoon. Since road temperatures will start out above freezing, impacts to the morning commute may be reduced somewhat. However, some slick spots on area roadways, especially on bridges and overpasses, may still occur with air temperatures below freezing.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding began on the Mississippi River as the month was drawing to a close. Low-lying woods and fields near the river were underwater, along with boat ramps and river access roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 803180.