A slow moving storm system in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding, extensive areal and river flooding of adjacent areas over portions of Bootheel of Missouri on February 11th and 12th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A slow moving storm system in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding, extensive areal and river flooding of adjacent areas over portions of Bootheel of Missouri on February 11th and 12th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 11, 5:36 PM CST, 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
536 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019
.UPDATE...
Updated to include 00z aviation discussion.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Stalled front over the Mid-South is beginning to lift north as a
warm front in response to the potent mid-level trough approaching
the region. Over five inches of rain has fallen across parts of
this region and a flood watch continues tonight north of I-40.
Lots of back roads, ditches and fields are flooded across the
northern tier and areal flood warnings continue. Plan to add Cross
County to the flood watch given rainfall totals in that area.
The mid level trough will push into the region tonight as surface
low pressure tracks from Oklahoma across southern Missouri into
the Ohio Valley. As the warm front moves north this afternoon
expect the rain to diminish some in the short term as the lift
weakens across the Mid-South. That break will be short lived. As
the trough pushes east the flow will become strongly diffluent
aloft and lift across the area will blossom once again. A 70-80
kt mid level jet will approach the region from the southwest and
more showers will develop this evening within a pre-frontal
surface trough and push into the area. Expect some embedded
thunder in this activity as cold air aloft associated with the mid
level trough pushes in. Latest model data indicates the heaviest
QPF overnight should be south and east of where the heaviest rain
has fallen over the the last couple of days. Expect around
another inch across NE AR...around 2 inches along I-40 and around
an inch in Tupelo. The main flooding story will continue to be
north of I-40 where most of the rain has fallen so far however
some localized flooding is possible south of the Flood Watch area
in the areas of heavier convection overnight.
By sunrise the heaviest activity will have pushed east into
Alabama. Showers will linger...especially east of the MS River for
a good part of the day. Clearing will start to occur from the
west late in the day. Quiet weather and somewhat mild weather
Tuesday night through Wednesday night as Pacific high pressure
moves in. Lows in the 30s Tuesday night...highs in the 50s
Wednesday and Lows in the 40s Wednesday night.
Thursday into Friday night...A cold front will sink south...
stall and provide the focus for more rain during this period. 12z
models are a bit all over the place and the event does not look
significant in terms of heavy rain or flooding...at least for now.
Weekend...The cold front eventually moves through and cold high
pressure will bleed into the area with temps dropping below
normal. The weather looks dry right now but confidence is fairly
low in this fast moving flow aloft.
Early next week...Cold high pressure may be in place on Monday as
an overrunning pattern sets up which will lead to more
precipitation. There is some concern for winter weather across
northern sections Sunday night into Monday though it is really
early and guaranteed to change.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAF Cycle
Mostly MVFR conditions begin the period as moisture continues to
advect into the region ahead of an approaching front. This will
allow lower VSBY and CIGS to continue into the night. Winds will
become more southwesterly overnight, when rain could become
moderate to heavy at times with FROPA. Timed this roughly with
TEMPO, as IFR conditions will be possible. Conditions gradually
improve on Tuesday morning, with winds becoming more northwesterly
and gusty behind the front. All terminals will likely be clearing
by the end of the period.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for Clay-Craighead-Cross-Greene-
Mississippi-Poinsett.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Benton TN-Carroll-Crockett-
Dyer-Gibson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-Weakley.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 350 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-130000- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 350 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A flood watch is in effect for areas north of Interstate 40 through tonight. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding concerns for area rivers and low-lying flood prone areas. Localized flooding is possible south of Interstate 40 as a cold front moves through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probablility of widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
140 PM CST MON FEB 11 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0112 PM HEAVY RAIN JONESBORO 35.82N 90.69W
02/11/2019 E4.50 INCH CRAIGHEAD AR EMERGENCY MNGR
A MANUFACTURING PLANT'S ROOF COLLAPSED DUE TO AN EXCESS
OF RAIN.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
156 PM CST MON FEB 11 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0121 PM FLOOD N WILSON 35.57N 90.04W
02/11/2019 MISSISSIPPI AR BROADCAST MEDIA
ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING: COUNTY ROAD 924
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
157 PM CST MON FEB 11 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0121 PM FLOOD E JOINER 35.51N 90.15W
02/11/2019 MISSISSIPPI AR BROADCAST MEDIA
ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING: SCR 391 EAST OF JOINER.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CST MON FEB 11 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM FLOOD 5 E JONESBORO 35.82N 90.60W
02/11/2019 CRAIGHEAD AR BROADCAST MEDIA
NESTLE ROAD NEAR I-555 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&
JABPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CST MON FEB 11 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0326 PM FLOOD 5 W JONESBORO 35.82N 90.78W
02/11/2019 CRAIGHEAD AR PUBLIC
BIG CREEK WEST OF TOWN OVER ITS BANKS AND CAUSING AREAL
FLOODING.
&&
JABPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
331 PM CST MON FEB 11 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM FLOOD 5 E JONESBORO 35.82N 90.60W
02/11/2019 CRAIGHEAD AR BROADCAST MEDIA
NESTLE ROAD CLOSED NEAR I-555 DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&
JABThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Route DD three miles west of Heloise is closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 805623.