Heat in Missouri, August 13, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1228 pM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18Z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Latest surface analysis shows a front stretched out to our north
from central IN westward through central IL/MO and back into the
central Plains states. Convection is ongoing at the time of this
writing and is focused along this boundary. This boundary will
continue to slide south this morning and into the afternoon. As it
does there will be a threat for additional showers and storms. We've
been watching the cluster of storms that headed southeast and
impacting parts of southeast IL and southwest IN. The gust front
continued to head south allowing additional development.

During the morning hours, best chances for additional development
will be across the northern sections of the area, as the front
enters the CWA. Unsure how widespread the convection may be at this
point so keep PoPs in the scattered to low likely category.

As we head toward mid morning and into the afternoon, the focus will
shift farther south. After 18Z, the main areas that should be
impacted will be southeast MO, far southern IL and western KY. Right
now, the timing of said convection is where the challenge lies.
Models are split on whether renewed convection fires in our southern
counties or just to our south (AR/TN). After 00Z, only western KY
should be seeing any lingering PoPs.

As far as the severe threat...still looking like far southern MO and
all of west KY have the best chances. Instability will obviously not
be lacking today. Overall shear is weak, but may be enough to
organize a few cells that could be strong to severe.

Lastly, we have the issue of heat related headlines. We've been
toying with the idea of a heat advisory for today for several days
now and even as of this writing, it is still not an easy decision to
make. Latest suite of short term models indicate that even by
18Z, dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s. It is not until
later in the afternoon that dewpoints start dropping in our
northern areas. The bigger question right now is, how warm will we
get despite any clouds and convection. By the time we reach peak
heating, the best chances for reaching heat advisory criteria will
be in southern MO and western KY and that also the time where
convection has the best chance to fire. But determining exact
convective initiation with regards to the boundary placement is
going to be a challenge. The best coverage of storms may end up
firing just to our south. Given the uncertainty, it is probably
best to issue the advisory for the southern half of the area just
to be safe. It may only be a small window of time where we achieve
advisory level numbers though. However, we are already starting
out pretty warm, so it won't take long to reach the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

High pressure will bring cooler and less humid air into the region
Wednesday and Thursday, along with rain-free conditions.  Heat and
humidity will arrive for the weekend, but not to the extent we are
observing today in Missouri and far west KY. Model variability
becomes high by early next week, when it is possible another cold
front could arrive.

On Friday, the 500 mb trough will lift northeast. This will allow
slightly warmer and more humid air into our region, but highs will
still be under 90. GFS and ECMWF suggest some potential that a short
wave moving east from the Plains could bring an MCS type system very
close to the I-64 corridor early Friday, but decided to leave any
specific mention out for the time being, as NBM data suggests.

Model variability increases over the weekend into early next week.
The forecast blend gives previous model runs a heavy weighting, so
the forecast remains dry this weekend. Forecast highs remain in the
lower 90s with more uncomfortable dew points around 70 to the lower
70s. Afternoon heat indices are likely to creep back up to near 100
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

A surface cold front was making its way slowly southeast into the
kmvn area at noon. The main concern is when and where storms will
develop along the front this afternoon. Most of the high-res cams
models indicate storms will form over western Kentucky by mid
afternoon. Therefore, the mention of vcts was kept for kpah and
kowb. Otherwise, the main impact of the front will be a short period
of scattered to broken cumulus clouds. Winds will shift into the
northwest as the front passes.

There is some potential for fog around sunrise where winds manage to
become calm. Typically, this occurs most readily at kmvn and kcgi.
Added some lower vsbys at thos sites around sunrise. Mainly clear
skies and light winds are expected Wed.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for ILZ088>094.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for KYZ001>013-015>017-020>022.

&&

Aviation...MY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
353 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
353 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There will be scattered thunderstorms across the area today as a
cold front sags south into the region. While any of the storms
will be capable of very heavy rainfall and lightning, a few of the
storms may become severe, especially across parts of southeast MO
and western KY. Damaging winds would be the main severe threat,
although large hail is also a possibility.

Afternoon heat index values are expected to climb into the triple
digits once again. Refer to the heat advisory and special weather
statement for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible over parts of southeast MO and west
KY today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
737 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     TSTM WND GST     CUTLER                  38.03N 89.57W
08/13/2019  M63 MPH          PERRY              IL   PUBLIC

            POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

CHRISTIW