A weak surface wave riding along a slow moving cold front produced severe thunderstorms across portions of northeast Mississippi during the mid afternoon hours of may 11th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A weak surface wave riding along a slow moving cold front produced severe thunderstorms across portions of northeast Mississippi during the mid afternoon hours of may 11th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 11:48 AM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1248 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1108 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019/ UPDATE... Latest KNQA radar sweep shows a large area of showers moving across northeast Arkansas at this hour. To our southwest, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed along a stationary frontal boundary. Temperatures remain much below normal with readings only in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Latest surface analysis places a stationary warm front from Tupelo, MS...southwest back through Greenwood, Mississippi and nearly parallel to the Mississippi River. A weak area of low pressure is near the ArkLaMiss and slowly lifting northeastward. As it does, expect showers and thunderstorms to spread into north Mississippi along a warm front over the next hour or so. Storms may contain small hail and gusty winds, but should remain below severe limits. To the north of the front, expect temperatures to remain cool with periods of light rain showers through mid afternoon. The surface low is expected to move into northeast Mississippi by early evening. As it does, rain showers will taper off considerably for areas along and west of the Mississippi River, with main activity confined to areas near the Tennessee River. Bumped up POPs through the morning hours for area across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee and trimmed POPs west of the Mississippi River during the late afternoon hours. Also increased thunder potential over north Mississippi based on latest radar trends and consistent CAM solutions. The rest of the forecast is in good shape with no further changes needed. AC3/KRF PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... The split flow pattern continues across the CONUS this morning with a cut-off upper low spinning near the SoCal coast and a northern stream trough traversing the upper Midwest. Southwesterly flow aloft persists downstream of this trough and there are several shortwave troughs embedded within this regime. One wave is moving across the LA Delta with a second tracking slowly east across the Southern Plains. The former is too far south to affect the Mid-South but latter will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area today. The cold front that moved across the CWA yesterday has pretty much stalled from central LA into northern AL. We expect this boundary lift back north today as the Southern Plains trough approaches, but it really isn't expected to move much farther north than the Interstate 40 corridor, keeping the northern half of the area on the cool side of the boundary. Temperatures north of the front will likely remain in the low/mid 60s today while readings to the south warm into the 70s. Occasional drizzle and fog, in addition to a few showers, are expected early in the morning, but showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon hours. A few strong storms are possible this afternoon, mainly across northeast MS where updrafts will be able to tap into surface-based instability on the warm side of the retreating warm front. HREF SBCAPE values approach 1500 J/kg near Tupelo, with deep layer shear ~30 kts. This suggests a multicellular convective mode. The likelihood for severe hail will be limited, but the stronger storms could produce damaging winds. North of the front, instability will remain scant with the potential for thunderstorms quite low. The front will move back to the southeast tonight as a deepening surface low lifts northeast into eastern KY. Additional elevated showers and drizzle are expected tonight continuing into the day tomorrow. The shortwave trough finally lifts northeast of the area by Sunday afternoon and will take most of the precipitation with it. However, a stronger, trailing trough in the northern stream will move across the area Sunday evening, potentially causing some evening showers across the northern portion of the CWA. Impacts should be limited with only light QPF. We'll get a much needed respite from the rain early next week. Drier air in the wake of a secondary cold front will provide us with a few dry days as a Rex Block in the western CONUS keeps the next trough well to our west through midweek. Expect below normal temperatures during this period with overnight lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s and afternoon highs in the 70s. The SoCal cut-off low is progged to finally approach the Mid-South late Tuesday or Wednesday, merging with the northern branch of the jet stream as it traverses the Lower MS Valley. Moisture will be limited and this trough will be filling, limiting the potential for appreciable rainfall. Low PoPs were included for Wednesday, excluding most of north MS. A few showers will be possible into Wednesday night as well, mainly in the north. A weak cold front is progged to move south into the area by Thursday and could give us another chance for showers and thunderstorms. The slight chance PoPs were maintained during this period with dry weather expected Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will approach climatology by the end of the week with highs near 80F and lows near 60F. The 00z global models all depict a strong trough moving into the Plains over the weekend. This could provide the Mid-South with another chance for showers and thunderstorms as we move into Sunday. However, there are still a lot of details to hash out as this pattern evolves. Stay tuned for updates. Johnson && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs KNQA/KGWX radar and METARs showed a surface warm front lifting north through north MS at 1745Z. A couple of TSRA cells were noted riding this front between UOX and MEM. This TSRA, as well as any warm sector TSRA behind it, may get as close as 25 miles of MEM and have added TS back to TAF. The HRRR has readjusted to this scenario, while the 12Z 3km NAM kept the TS too far south and east of MEM early this afternoon. TSRA should exit TUP by late afternoon, followed by post-cold frontal IFR returning to the region this evening. Another round of TSRA possible near TUP during late overnight, but stronger convection should be focused southeast of TUP. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 428 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121100- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 428 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few strong thunderstorms are possible today, mainly across northeast Mississippi. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1057 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019
MSZ010-011-020-111630-
Coahoma MS-Tallahatchie MS-Quitman MS-
1057 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR...
Southeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...
At 1057 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail and
winds to 40 mph was located near Shelby, moving northeast at 40 mph.
People in southeastern Coahoma...northwestern Tallahatchie and
southwestern Quitman Counties should monitor this storm closely.
LAT...LON 3399 9045 3399 9066 3411 9066 3426 9057
3409 9030 3398 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 219DEG 36KT 3395 9066The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:43 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree down on old Highway 8 east of Houston.
One large tree down on Lake Lilly Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 823644, 823647.