Strong north winds to near 60 mph were measured by a mesonet station near Shot Point in the wake of an Arctic cold front early on the 16th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Strong north winds to near 60 mph were measured by a mesonet station near Shot Point in the wake of an Arctic cold front early on the 16th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 15, 6:40 PM EST, 5 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
640 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a mid/upper level ridge
from western Canada into Alaska with a downstream deep trough/vortex
in the vicinity of Hudson Bay which will bring the first in a series
of clipper shortwaves/Arctic air intrusions through the Upper Great
Lakes this evening.
Models indicate the clipper shortwave and the associated cold front
will move across Lake Superior this evening as the sfc low tracks
just north of the lake through northern Ontario. 850 mb temps behind
the front drop near -20C late tonight into Wednesday as winds veer
from west to north-northwest. Cold airmass behind the front will
support wind parallel lake effect snow bands with the convective
cloud depth reaching into the DGZ to support fluffier snow
accumulation tonight into Wed morning. Big negatives on snow
accumulation will be lack of enhancement potential (deep layer q-
vector convergence associated with the shortwave passes through late
today early this evening ahead of wind shift from frontal passage)
and sharp ridging/anticyclonic flow and influx of drier air at low-
levels as noted on model soundings. Model qpf blend and SLRs of 20-
25:1 equate to total lake effect snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches
tonight into Wed for the north-northwest wind snowbelts with local
accumulation close to 4 inches for a few locations over the eastern
counties. At any rate, total lake effect snow accumulation for
tonight into Wednesday should stay blo advisory criteria. Lows
tonight will generally drop into a range from the single digits over
the interior west to the low teens east half and near the Great
Lakes. The strong north-northwest winds will likely cause minor beach
erosion along the Lake Superior shore, especially east of Marquette
late tonight where waves reach near 15 feet for a brief time period.
As a result will issue a lakeshore flood advisory for Alger and Luce
counties.
Wednesday, as surface ridging builds into the area with inversion
heights falling to 3-4kft, the LES should rapidly diminish to
flurries. Expected highs in the teens will remain below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
Bigger storm systems once again will remain south and east of Upper
Michigan rest of this week into the upcoming weekend as split flow
pattern continues. Upper Lakes will be affected by multiple cold
fronts in the northern branch which will bring progressively colder
air to the region. Looks like peak of this first period of cold
occurs this weekend as H85 temps drop to at least -27c with even
shot at -30c per GFS-FV3. Probably will be into wind chill criteria
by that time. Certainly will be lake effect snow showers most of the
period with arctic air flowing across the ice free waters of Lake
Superior. With such cold air, biggest impact from LES will be small
snowflakes leading to sharply reduced visibility which will only be
aggrevated by even moderately strong winds.
Wed night into Thu: Cold front that blasts through Upper Michigan
tonight heads off the east coast on Wed evening while high pressure
builds from scntrl Canada across the Great Lakes. Some low inversion
and high SLR snow showers Wed evening east of Munising will slide
offshore overnight as winds back sw. Maybe up to 1 inch before the
snow showers end. Could be some clearing otherwise, so inland areas
late Wed night may drop below zero. Thu will serve as a transition
day to increasing lake effect and gusty nw winds/blsn by Thu night.
Differences in how quick snow moves in on the Keweenaw on Thu, but
looks like better chances will be later in the day so have pops
bumping up to likely. Looks pretty quiet elsewhere on Thu, at least
during the daytime hours.
Thu night through Sat: Shortwave slides by across northern Lk
Superior and northern Ontario, but stronger cold front does swing
across all of Upper Michigan. Soundings indicate surge of deep
moisture on Thu evening followed by sharp drying aloft overnight
into Fri. NW flow areas likely see lake enhanced LES for a period on
Thu night. Went with higher widespread pops and high end of models
for qpf/snow 00z-06z Fri/7 pm Thu-1 am EST Fri before diminishing
pops on Fri. High pressure ridge building in/subsidence should
diminish pops steadily on Fri west, even as H85 temps stay at or
below -20c. However, farther east, MSLP pattern with ridge building
from northern Plains to Upper Mississippi River Valley/northern WI
does favor stronger low-level convergence setting up probably east
of Marquette to Grand Marais Fri into Fri night as nw winds over Lk
Superior likely will end up more backed to w over western Upper
Michigan and veered to the n-ne over far eastern Upper Michigan due
to land breezes. Soundings over Lk Superior only indicate inversions
up to 4kft with slightly higher lake induced EQL. Still a decent
amount of the lake effect convective layer will be within the DGZ at
least in those areas where convergence zone is expected. Would not
be surprised to see stronger convergence band of snow develop btwn
Marquette and Grand Marais later Fri into Fri night/Sat AM.
Sat into early next week: Cold for sure with daytime highs this
weekend struggling to reach 10 above many areas and nighttime lows
mainly below zero except along the immediate Great Lakes shores.
Stronger low pressure system tracking across lower Great Lakes
into Mid Atlantic states results in mainly north winds over Upper
Michigan Sat and Sun. LES should continue into Sat, especially
over east half where stronger convergence persists. Eventually
stronger shortwave slides across Upper Great Lakes, bringing shot
of very cold air over Upper Great Lakes late Sat night into Sun.
In general the LES pattern on Sat will continue into Sun but will
be energized some as energy from shortwave crosses and colder air
flows across Lk Superior. Dry air will quickly move in though on
Sun, so expect better increase of more widespread LES occurs Sat
night as this colder air first arrives. As alluded to earlier,
will probably be near wind chill criteria on Sun, especially over
the west half. Possible that low wind chills near advy could
continue into Mon as well. LES will continue though winds will
shift around as ridge moves across on Mon followed by possible low
pressure system though it is pretty early to get focused in on
those details.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
IFR ceilings have developed at both KCMX and KIWD with the passage
of the better frontal forcing snowfall this evening, with even a
brief drop into LIFR visibilities at KCMX due to some freezing fog
there. Gusty winds also plagued KCMX with the passage of the front
with gusts hitting 45 knots there for an hour, thanks in good part
to the local terrain influences. As winds shift more northwesterly,
impacts of gusty winds will diminish at KCMX but gusts will remain
around 30-35 knots for the next several hours. KIWD and KSAW will
not see as strong of winds but will experience gusts of 22-28 knots
through the night at times. As winds relax and drier air begins
filtering in, snow showers to gradually end late tonight and early
Wednesday morning. KIWD and KCMX will see ceilings gradually improve
overnight into Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area, with
MVFR and potentially VFR conditions developing late in the forecast
at KSAW and KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 323 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
Southwest gales 40 to 45 knots will shift northwest this evening and
then north-northwest late tonight into early Wed with solid gales to
45 knots expected over north central and eastern Lake Superior as
deeper mixing with colder air brings stronger winds to sfc. The
combination of strong winds and colder airmass will support heavy
freezing spray late tonight into Wed morning. Winds will then
diminish blo gales on Wed as high pressure builds in quickly from the
west. Winds will generally stay below 30 knots through the rest of
the forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
MIZ006-007.
Lake Superior...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for LSZ242>245-248>251-263>267.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ243>245-264>267.
Gale Warning until 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ Wednesday for LSZ241-242-
263.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ248>251.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VossHazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Marquette MI 622 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019 MIZ006-007-161200- Alger-Luce- 622 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Waves up to 12 feet along the tip of the Keweenaw Peninsula and up to 15 feet east of Marquette to Grand Marais may cause minor beach erosion late this evening through late tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Waves up to 15 feet early Wednesday morning east of Marquette to Grand Marais may cause minor beach erosion. As arctic air moves in late this week into this weekend expect lake effect snow showers to produce sharply reduced visiblities at times. Wind chills will drop to 5 to 15 below zero at times this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. MIZ001>005-009>014-084-085-161200- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Gogebic- Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 622 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019 /522 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight A cold front moving through this evening will bring some freezing drizzle and light snow for all but far south central Upper Michigan. Scattered snow showers and patchy blowing snow are expected overnight especially near Lake Superior. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday As arctic air moves in late this week into this weekend expect lake effect snow showers to produce sharply reduced visiblities at times. Wind chills will drop to 15 to 25 below zero at times this weekend, especially over the west half of Upper Michigan. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-161200- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 622 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019 /522 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight Northwest gales to 45 knots are expected across much of Lake Superior tonight. Heavy freezing spray is expected over the northern and eastern lake tonight. See the latest Marine Weather Message and open lake forecasts for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Heavy freezing spray is possible over northern and eastern Lake Superior Wednesday morning. See the latest Marine Weather Message and open lake forecast for further details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-161200- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 622 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. JLA
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
602 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.14N 88.82W
01/15/2019 M45 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
KCWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
603 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0519 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HOUGHTON CO AIRPORT 47.17N 88.49W
01/15/2019 M52 MPH HOUGHTON MI ASOS
ASOS STATION CMX, HOUGHTON CO. AIRPORT.
0545 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE COPPER HARBOR 47.47N 87.88W
01/15/2019 M43 MPH KEWEENAW MI ASOS
ASOS STATION P59, COPPER HARBOR.
0533 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW LAURIUM 47.22N 88.46W
01/15/2019 M42 MPH HOUGHTON MI MESONET
MESONET STATION MC030, 1 SW LAURIUM.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
712 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT 47.18N 87.22W
01/15/2019 M56 MPH LSZ266 MI BUOY
BUOY STATION STDM4, STANNARD ROCK.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
838 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0744 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N GRAND MARAIS 46.68N 85.98W
01/15/2019 M43 MPH LSZ251 MI MESONET
&&
KCWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1015 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0903 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW KINGSFORD 45.82N 88.11W
01/15/2019 M37 MPH DICKINSON MI ASOS
ASOS STATION IMT, KINGSFORD.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1027 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE COPPER HARBOR 47.47N 87.88W
01/15/2019 M53 MPH KEWEENAW MI ASOS
ASOS STATION P59, COPPER HARBOR.
&&
KCWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A mesonet station just west of Shot Point measured a peak north wind gust of 58 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, January 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 803888.