Two periods of freezing rain from February 5th through February 7th resulted in significant ice accumulation on the order of a half to three quarters of an inch across portions of central lower Michigan. This resulted in thousands of downed trees, limbs and power lines.
Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRR wrote it up.
Two periods of freezing rain from February 5th through February 7th resulted in significant ice accumulation on the order of a half to three quarters of an inch across portions of central lower Michigan. This resulted in thousands of downed trees, limbs and power lines. Approximately one hundred and fifty thousand people lost power. |Schools in the area were closed for days.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 6:55 PM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 655 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 -Freezing rain and sleet late tonight and Wednesday morning creating difficult travel and perhaps some power outages -Another round of freezing rain late Wednesday night into Thursday, although lighter amounts and mainly north of I-96 -High winds likely Thursday night and Friday, accompanied by a sharp temperature drop/flash freeze, and lake effect snow && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 Models have trended up considerably with QPF tonight, with good model agreement that amounts will be from one half to three quarters of an inch south of a line from Muskegon to Mt Pleasant. This seems reasonable given the coupled jet structure aloft, mid level FGEN forcing and even some negative EPV aloft. Most of this falls rather quickly between 06Z and 12Z tonight and will be convective in nature. In fact there is already some thunder noted in southeast Iowa related to elevated instability rooted above 750 mb and this instability moves across srn Lwr MI between 09z and 15Z. Would therefore not rule out an isolated tstm mainly south of I-96. The higher precip amounts obviously raises concerns for more total ice accumulations and bigger impacts. Unfortunately it's very hard to say exactly where the heaviest amounts will set up given that convective precip typically leads to only localized streaks of heavier amounts. Also, heavier precip rates during a freezing rain event with temps near 30 can actually make for less efficient ice accumulation rates per the FRAM/FRAT. Will therefore not be upgrading to a warning anywhere, especially since winds will not be particularly strong and sfc temps are expected to rebound above freezing on Wednesday where the heaviest ice accumulates. The most likely zone for the localized heavier amounts of ice up to one half inch looks to be from Holland/Saugatuck to Grand Rapids and Hastings, over to the Lansing area. Meanwhile, least impact expected in the far SW corner of lwr MI including Van Buren Co - possibly AZO Co too - where sfc temps look a little too warm. Have scaled back on ice amounts across the southern portions of these counties but the far nrn portions could still see significant ice impacts. North of the I-96 corridor including RQB/MOP, soundings support higher probabilities of sleet, although still mixing with freezing rain. Even farther north for the U.S. 10 corridor and north of there it looks like mostly snow with lesser amounts of freezing rain and sleet expected. Precipitation will taper off rapidly from west to east Wednesday morning after 9 AM as the deeper moisture peels away, leaving behind only areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle. The second freezing rain event for late Wed ngt into Thursday is farther north and lighter, with only about a tenth of an inch of glazed /localized up to 0.25/ expected north of I-96. Temps everywhere warm above freezing on Thursday, melting most ice of trees and power lines. This is good news given that a high wind event arrives Thursday night. Rapidly deepening sfc low crosses MI on Thursday night and should lead to a period of wind gusts as high as 45 mph once the low gets up to near Sault Ste Marie and falls to near 988 mb. Temps plunge rapidly into the teens in the cold advection and any standing water will freeze up abruptly. The cold air will also generate lake effect snow showers and blowing snow which will greatly impact the Friday morning commute. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 655 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 IFR conditions are expected to develop this evening as freezing rain and sleet moves in from the west. LIFR is expected by Wednesday morning and persist into the afternoon before some slight improvement late in the afternoon. Winds will be east around 10 knots overnight and become variable less than 10 knots on Wednesday. There could be some thunder late tonight but this was left out of the forecast for now. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 Water from the huge snowmelt last weekend continues to work its way through the river system, first impacting the small streams, and then eventually making its way into the larger rivers (like the Muskegon, Grand, and Kalamazoo). Significant rises have been observed on most of our streams and rivers. Many of the small streams are cresting today or are expected to crest overnight tonight. The larger rivers will keep rising for several more days. No widespread flooding is expected. The cause for concern is much more localized, as the expected rises may be enough to break the ice and send ice chunks downriver, which could create additional ice jams. Several small ice jams have formed around the area, including on the Chippewa River and Macatawa River. So far, no major impacts/flooding have been observed. Once a river has crested and water levels begin to fall, the threat of ice jams will diminish significantly. There is a flood warning in effect for the Muskegon River at Bridgeton, where ice continues to clog the river channel and cause significantly elevated water levels. Impacts have been highly localized, and additional water level rises are anticipated in the next few days. The impact to the rivers of several rounds of precipitation over the next few days is hard to nail down, as much of the rain may freeze on the ground and not make it to the rivers right away. If these storms come through warmer and/or wetter than anticipated, the most likely impact would be to prolong the crest expected on our mainstem rivers into late this weekend/early next week. We will be watching closely over the next several days to fine-tune the forecast. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. && SYNOPSIS...Meade DISCUSSION...Meade AVIATION...Ostuno HYDROLOGY...AMD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 357 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-060845- Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- 357 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Freezing rain and sleet will develop just before midnight and continue overnight. Along and south of Interstate 96 total ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch are expected, with localized amounts of up to one half inch possible. Lesser amounts of ice accumulation are expected further north, with more in the way of sleet and snow, but travel impacts are still likely. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Another round of freezing rain is expected late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but mainly north of I-96. Wind gusts to 45 mph are possible Thursday night and Friday morning, and will be accompanied by temperatures dropping abruptly into the teens with a flash freeze. Lake effect snow and blowing snow on Friday will impact travel. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Freezing rain of a quarter to half an inch resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
A half to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
Up to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
A half to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
Up to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
A half to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
Up to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
A half to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
Up to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
A half to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain resulted in numerous downed trees, limbs, power lines and widespread power outages.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 807799, 807800, 807801, 807802, 807803, 807804, 807805, 807806, 807807, 807808.