Strong to damaging westerly winds developed over eastern New York and western New England on Sunday, February 24th into Monday, February 25th, in association with a deep low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes. Gusts in excess of 50 mph were common across the area, with several sites recording gusts in excess of 60 mph.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
Strong to damaging westerly winds developed over eastern New York and western New England on Sunday, February 24th into Monday, February 25th, in association with a deep low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes. Gusts in excess of 50 mph were common across the area, with several sites recording gusts in excess of 60 mph. Gusts were measured as high as 69 mph near Adams, MA. Numerous power outages and downed trees occurred as a result of the winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 24, 6:55 PM EST, 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
655 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening and intensifying storm system will be moving across
southeastern Canada tonight, as a very strong cold front moves
across the region with scattered snow showers, much colder
temperatures and very windy conditions. Strong to damaging winds
will continue late tonight through tomorrow with some lake
effect snow impacting the western Adirondacks and the western
Mohawk Valley. Blustery and cold conditions will continue Monday
night into Tuesday, as high pressure will build in Tuesday
night with diminishing winds and below normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High Wind Warning for the entire region 7 pm EST tonight until
7 pm EST Monday...
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 pm EST tonight to 7 pm
EST Monday for Herkimer...Hamilton and northern Fulton
Counties...
As of 653 PM EST...Surface observations indicating the cold
front is just now pushing through the Capital District, as winds
have shifted to the northwest associated with a line of showers
along the leading edge of the front. Wind gusts generally in
the 25-40 mph range with this first surge behind the initial
cold front. The much stronger winds are back across
western/central NY at this time, but will be progressing
eastward. Made some adjustments for the rest of the evening to
raise pops across much of the area due to the line of showers
moving through with the front. The front should clear the entire
area by 9 PM.
In the wake of this front low pressure continues to deepen and
intensify northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to 970-975
hPa. The cold front will focus some showers with gusty winds, as
the cold advection occurs in the wake of the front. The rain
showers will transition to snow showers initially over the
higher terrain with strong low to mid level cold advection, as
H850 temps will tumble to -10C to -12C across the forecast area.
The winds at H850 winds increase to 50-70 kts. The latest 12Z
GEFS continues to show +u-wind anomalies /westerlies/ +3 to +4
STD DEVs above normal. We start the High Wind Warning early as
some gusts of 40-55+ mph with this initial surge are possible
tonight. We believe the winds will increase before daybreak
with sustained winds of 20-40 mph with gusts hitting the 55-65
mph range. We will talk about winds more in further detail in
the short term section. Scattered to widespread power outages
are possible, and the high wind warning begins early this
evening.
Meanwhile, in the wake of the cold front, cyclonic flow will
persist with southwest/west upslope conditions along the western
spine of the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Some locations
could receive a quick 2 to 5 inches of snow. The latest 3-km
NAMnest, and HREFs shows this possibility for northern Herkimer,
and western Hamilton Counties, portions of the southern Greens
could receive 1-3". The western Mohawk Valley may get a few
inches and light coatings to a half inch are possible in the
Schoharie Valley, and the Capital Region. The winds will be
blowing all the snow around. We kept the advisory going for the
western Adirondacks, and the western Mohawk Valley, as this
looks like a long duration event.
Lows tonight will range from the teens to lower/mid 20s over the
mountains and hills, and mid and upper 20s over the valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High Wind Warning for the entire region 7 pm EST tonight until
7 pm EST Monday...
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 pm EST tonight to 7 pm
EST Monday for Herkimer...Hamilton and northern Fulton
Counties...
Tomorrow...Strong to damaging winds are expected Monday morning
through the afternoon, as an impressive isallobaric rise/fall
pressure couplet will move over the forecast area. The pressure
rises continue to get to 8-12 hPa/12 hours. The H925 low-level
westerly jet moves down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital
Region, northern/central Taconics and Berkshires at 45-55 kts.
The low-level lapse rates steepen to close to H850, cold air
advection continues with the channeled west to northwest flow
down the Mohawk Valley. Mixing heights from BUFKIT soundings
continue the possibility of momentum transfer of 50-60 kts of
wind from 2-3 kft AGL. If we mix higher, then the wind gusts
could be even strong. It is not often have the 10-m GFS MOS
product have multiple 3-hr period of 35 kts for KALB. Everything
is in place for a high impact wind event. Some clouds around
could occasionally inhibit strong gusts from reaching the
surface. Some locations in the upper Hudson Valley, and the mid
Hudson Valley may get winds mainly in the 45-55 mph range, but
downsloping off the eastern Catskills, and the eastern
Adirondacks could produce damaging winds. Sustained winds may be
in the 20-40 mph range.
The other issue we are monitoring is possible lake effect snow.
Some of the CAMs are showing the potential of a single lake
effect snowband forming in the late morning downstream of lake
Ontario, and extending through the Mohawk Valley and possibly
into the Capital Region, northern Taconics, southern Greens and
Berkshires. We were not confident enough to issue a warning
(possibly a Blizzard warning) for portions of Herkimer county,
as we increased snow tallies a bit to 4-8" over a 18-24 hour
period. The BUFKIT profiles at KUCA/KRME indicate mainly
conditional instability with inversion heights gradually
lowering to 5 kft AGL by the late afternoon/early evening. The
local CSTAR inland extent lake band tool supports a downstream
extension of close to 200 miles. We have extended the advisory
into northern Fulton County for 3-6" of snow, and we do have
4-8" over an 18-hr or so period for southern/central Herkimer
Counties. We may have to extend the advisory into the early
evening or upgrade later in time. Blowing and drifting of the
snow is possible with the powerful gusty winds. Highs Monday
will be in the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s in the valley areas,
and upper teens to mid 20s over the mountains. Light snow accums
are possible in the Capital Region, northern Berkshires,
northern Taconics, and the eastern Catskills with a coating to
less than an inch.
Monday Night...The winds start to decrease below high wind
thresholds by 00Z/TUE, and we may have to replace the High Wind
Warning with a wind advisory for some areas. A sfc trough looks
to move through, and allow the low-level flow to veer more to
the northwest which should allow any lake effect snowband to
push southward and weaken west of the region. The subsidence
inversion will also be lowering. We have an additional few
inches of snowfall for southern Herkimer County in the night
time period. Again, if we find a window for 7 or more inches,
then we may have to issue a warning later. Expect an even
greater surge of cold advection with the sfc trough moving
through with H850 temps falling to -18C to -26C from south to
north across the forecast area. The temps combined with the
winds may produce wind chills close to 20 degrees below zero in
the southern Adirondacks, and possibly the high peaks of the
southern Greens. We will mention the possibility of a wind chill
advisory in the HWO. Other higher terrain areas will have wind
chills zero to close to 15 below, and the valley areas will have
wind chills in the single digits to 5 to 10 below, as the winds
will continue from northwest at 15 to 25 mph with some gusts
still 35-45 mph. The actual lows will be zero to 5 below over
the southern Dacks, and southern Greens. Single digits overt
north and west of the Capital District, and teens from the Tri
Cities south down the Hudson Valley into the southern Taconics,
southern Berkshires and NW CT.
Tuesday...Cold and blustery conditions continue with low
pressure near the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure
building in from the western Great Lakes Region. The sfc
pressure gradient will continue to be strong. Max temps will
run close to 10 to 15 degrees below normal with single digits
to teens outside the Hudson River Valley, and 20s mainly within
the Hudson River Valley, across the southern Berkshires, east of
the the southern Greens, southern Taconics, and NW CT. NW winds
of 15 to 25 mph with some gusts in the 30-40 mph range will
produce wind chills in the single digits to below zero.
Tue night...High pressure builds in with diminishing winds, but
it will be very cold with lows below zero north of the Mohawk
Valley, and the Capital Region, as well as across the southern
Greens, and single digits to lower teens from roughly I-90
corridor south.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will be downright unpleasant from start to finish, with
lots of cloudiness throughout, modest temperature swings, some snow
early on, and the potential for serious icy wintry conditions for
the weekend. High pressure immediately yields to a fast-moving low
that brings a period of snow showers to our region Wednesday night.
High pressure behind it will be broken down by a trof which will
keep skies mostly overcast until a bigger storm heads our way just
in time for the start of climatological spring.
Freezing rain, sleet and snow of varying mixtures looks to be what's
in store and it appears it will be a major event that will include
high winds. T his is being triggered by low pressure which is
expected to rapidly intensify as it crosses the Great Lakes into
southern Quebec. Still far out, it bears watching; the Canadian
model does bust this event, while the ECMWF gives us up to 2.00"
QPF. The compromise GFS is going with just under an inch.
High temperatures will range from the mid teens to upper 20s on
Wednesday, the mid teens to around 40 degrees on Thursday, mainly in
the 30s on Friday, the mid 30s to mid 40s Saturday, and from around
20 degrees to the mid 30s on Sunday. Lows will range from the upper
single digits to lower teens Wednesday night, from around 10 degrees
to the mid 20s Thursday night, mostly in the 20s Friday night, and
the mid teens to upper 20s Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions still occurring in the moist air
mass immediately preceding the cold front, which is will
quickly be moving through the terminals through around 01Z or
02Z. Until the front passes through, low level wind shear will
continue, due to a southerly jet still overhead. Once the front
passes through, the threat for LLWS will end as winds will align
from the west and increase in intensity.
Conditions will improve from IFR to MVFR this evening. A brief
period of moderate rain showers may accompany the front. Then,
precip will be more scattered the rest of the evening through
the overnight hours. Some lake effect snow showers may affect
the KGFL/KALB/KPSF terminals late tonight into Monday with brief
MVFR/IFR conditions, but duration is not expected to be long
enough to mention in TAFs at this time.
Winds will be south-southeast around 5-10 kt until the cold
front pushes through, then will shift to the west-southwest and
increase to 15-25 kt with gusts of 30-40 kt developing
overnight. Winds speeds will increase further to around 25-40 kt
with gusts of 40-50 kt by late Monday morning.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological significant impacts the next several days.
Total additional liquid equivalent from showers transitioning
to snow showers will be in the tenth to quarter of an inch
range this evening.
The rainfall into this evening, combined with warmer
temperatures, allowed for some brief snowmelt and some minor
rises on area rivers. The latest MMEFS continues to show no
flooding at this time, as well as the latest NERFC forecasts.
The tidal gauge at Poughkeepsie may hit the alert or caution
stage the next couple of high tidal cycles starting tonight.
Colder air moves back into the region tonight with lake
enhanced or lake effect snowfall the main precipitation type
into Monday night. Cold and mainly dry weather is expected for
Tuesday, and some scattered snow showers for the mid week (Wed
into THU). Flows should lower quickly, and colder than normal
temps are expected for the mid to later portion of the week.
Some ice thickening and reformation is possible.
Another system will potentially bring some mixed precipitation
into the HSA on the weekend. Exact precipitation amounts and
types are still uncertain.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013.
NY...High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-
038-082.
MA...High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025.
VT...High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013>015.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...MSE/JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WasulaHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 527 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084- VTZ013>015-251200- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga- Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene- Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster- Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 527 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, the Lake George Saratoga Region, Taconics, central and eastern Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital Region, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, mid Hudson Valley of east central New York, and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. A Wind Advisory may be needed Monday night into Tuesday, if widespread wind gusts of 46-57 mph are expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NYZ032-033-038-082-251200- Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Northern Fulton- 527 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western Mohawk Valley, and the west and southwest Adirondacks of eastern New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Winter Weather Advisory. A Wind Advisory may be needed Monday night into Tuesday, if widespread wind gusts of 46-57 mph are expected. Wind Chills may approach advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday morning over the western Adirondacks. A wind chill advisory may be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Massachusetts in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Massachusetts, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 808802, 808803.