Damaging Wind in Maine, July 2, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1012 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front tracks south through the region today. High
pressure builds in from the west tonight through Thursday and
then shifts offshore Friday. Very warm temperatures are in
store Wednesday through Friday. A cold front will approach
Friday and cross the region Saturday or Saturday night, with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10am update... Adjusted for current temps and cloud cover. The
eastern portion of the area remains in full sun with
temperatures warming quickly. This area of heating coincides
with the region of thunderstorm threat for this afternoon and
have updated Pop to focus highest probability on southern
Somerset, Waldo, and Knox counties where the upper support and
low level heat and humidity coincide.

545 AM...I've added the mention of small hail and gusty winds
to the forecast this afternoon for the eastern third of zones.
Moderate shear and moderate instability are enough to produce
at least a little rotation in some of these storms.

520 AM...Some light rain showers making it to the ground out of
the mid deck thanks to WAA. ADjusted the forecast to throw in
some showers/spkls through about 12-13Z outside of the mtns
/where there were chc POPs already. Otherwise forecast holds for
the rest of today.

Previously...Weakening 500 MB trough moves SE across nrn ME
today, and will drag a weak front thru the region. That front is
likely to wash out over central and srn NH, and is unlikely to
do much across SW ME either today, other than provide clouds
this morning. Across ern and nrn areas, generally E of a PWM-
LEW- Rangeley line, could see some sct showers or thunderstorms
develop late morning into around mid afternoon, as 500 Mb cold
pool slowly exits to the east, should be good enough lapse rates
to get some lightning going with an outside chance of small
hail in any storms, although I think coverage will limited, so
more places in the east should stay dry than get any SHRA/TSRA.
So after early morning clouds look for skies to star to clear
from W to E during the mid to late morning across NH and far wrn
ME, and into early to mid afternoon across central ME, although
the chc for any showers will continue here until late
afternoon, but should diminish quickly by early evening.

Highs should still make into the upper to low 80s across much
of the CWA, and into the mid 80s in the more urbanized areas of
srn NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
It should clear out quickly tonight and showers expected to be
done before sunset. Should be enough NW flow to prevent
widespread rad cooling, but certainly the mtns vlys and the CT
vly will see winds drop off and fog develop late /considering
Tds in the 55-60 range in the these areas/. So lows range from
55-60 in inland areas, except for srn NH which will be mostly in
the lower 60s, which will also apply to most coastal areas.

Sfc high will build in from the west under strong NW flow at 500
MB, which will make for a mostly sunny day. The strong mid
level will not begin in earnest until Thursday, and flow will
be light in the mid- lower levels, so mixing may be limited to
the sun, which is quite strong still, so I only moderated temps
by a degree or two based on full mixing, and highs should make
to 80-05 inland areas across nrn NH as well as western and
central and 85-90 in central and srn NH and interior SW ME. Sea
breeze will develop, but coastal zones should still make in into
the upper 70s to low 80s, with the beaches and areas around
Penobscot Bay limited to the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build over the northeast Wednesday
night and Thursday. Will see another mild night with lows in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Sunshine continues on Thursday with
highs ranging through the 80s to lower 90s. Will also see
humidity creeping back into the picture as dew points edge into
the lower 60s.

Thursday night looking quiet with lows similar to Wednesday nights.
Hot and sunny weather now likely to last through Friday as GFS
solution has slowed approaching frontal boundary more in line
with past runs of the ECMWF. Highs will again range from the mid
80s to lower 90s.

Cold front will finally sag south into the region Friday night and
Saturday. Will likely see some very heavy downpours in
associated convection as PWAT's peak around two inches across a
good portion of the forecast area. Highs on Saturday will range
through the 80s.

Showers and and thunderstorms will gradually come to an end in
southern and coastal sections of the forecast area as the front
pushes offshore Saturday evening. Looking for clearing
overnight inland with areas of fog. Low clouds and ocean stratus
may persist in the far south into Sunday morning. Lows
overnight will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday through Monday looking fair with seasonable temps as high
pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR today thru Wed. Will have to watch for
some TSRA at KAUG/KRKD this afternoon. Also, expect IFR or
lower in vly fog at KLEB/KHIE late tonight into early Wed.

Long Term...
VFR Wednesday night through Friday night. Areas of MVFR ceilings
Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds an seas remain well below SCA levels today
through Wed.

Long Term...No problems noted.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Concord NH ASOS is out of service, with only the
backup altimeter reporting. Techs have visited the site and found
the transformer is damaged, presumably during storms on Sunday.
This site will remain out of service pending the arrival of new
parts, likely through the end of the week. Due to this outage
the Concord TAF will not have scheduled amendments. Additionally
climate data may be unavailable for Concord, although a backup
system may become available.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Sinsabaugh
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
547 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

MEZ008-009-013-014-021-022-025>028-031000-
Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Franklin-
Southern Somerset-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-
Coastal Waldo-
547 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine, west
central Maine and western Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this morning into the
afternoon.  Some storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ007-012-018>020-023-024-NHZ001>015-031000-
Northern Oxford-Southern Oxford-Interior York-Interior Cumberland-
Androscoggin-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-
Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-
Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
547 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, southwest Maine,
western Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire, northern New
Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ150>154-031000-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
547 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1230 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

MEZ014-021-022-021715-
Interior Waldo-Southern Somerset-Kennebec-
1230 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WALDO AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES...

At 1229 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pittsfield,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsfield, Thorndike, Clinton, Unity, Knox, Canaan, Dixmont,
Burnham, Brooks, Detroit, Jackson, Palmyra, Troy and Monroe.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 142 and 156.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4454 6918 4471 6955 4487 6942 4483 6929
      4480 6929 4473 6927 4472 6925 4473 6920
      4464 6918 4467 6906 4466 6905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 299DEG 23KT 4475 6939

MLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
127 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

MEZ022-026>028-021815-
Interior Waldo-Coastal Waldo-Lincoln-Knox-
127 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KNOX AND SOUTHERN
WALDO COUNTIES...

At 127 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Liberty, or 13
miles west of Lincolnville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockland, Camden, Lincolnville, Liberty, Thomaston, Rockport,
Islesboro, Palermo, Hope, Appleton, Belmont, Searsmont, Montville,
Union, Washington, Hibberts Gore, Morrill and Northport.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4407 6918 4437 6946 4449 6927 4426 6886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 314DEG 28KT 4435 6927