A surge of heavy rain moved into Bell County on the evening of May 11th, following earlier rainfall. This led to a couple of mudslides, as well as minor flooding near poorly draining culverts.
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A surge of heavy rain moved into Bell County on the evening of May 11th, following earlier rainfall. This led to a couple of mudslides, as well as minor flooding near poorly draining culverts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 6:33 PM EST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 733 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 733 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2019 The forecast is pretty much on track so far this evening. We have been tracking batches of rain showers across the area so far, and these will continue to move in from the southwest this evening and through out the night. We've also been watching scattered thunderstorms form and move through portions of northern Alabama and south central Tennessee this evening. For this reason thunder will be left in the grids as we continue monitoring how the storms evolve as they move our way. The latest obs from the past few hours were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends in the hourly temperatures, winds, dewpoints, and RH. The forecast will be left as is for now, but at least one update will be issued later in the shift to take out evening wording and to make any other necessary changes. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 401 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2019 Current surface analysis across the region features the boundary that pushed east through Kentucky last night is still over the Appalachian range. This boundary is now showing more warm frontal characteristics through this evening as more moisture will continue to stream northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. Some evidence of another surface low is forming and another wave is forming to shift northeast into the TN valley in the next 24 hours. The current model runs support this setup as the GFS and NAM bring the next wave northward into the region tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring the warm front further to the north putting eastern Kentucky in an overrunning situation. Model soundings support some elevated instability with this setup so will keep the chance of thunder in the forecast tonight but strong storms are not expected. The saturated air mass in place coupled with the chance of a storm or two tonight will lead to a few heavy rainers but this is mainly in the far east. Have mentioned this in the HWO but overall, the heavy rain threat is minor. By tomorrow, continued showers will develop over the area through the day. As the boundary pushes east and coupled with the terrain, a few storms will be possible in the ridges to the east. The bulk of the heavy saturated air and instability will be to the south and east. Thus, model agree on a wet and mainly uneventful short term weather wise. Concerning the boundary shifting east, most of the rain will fall over the east as total rainfall amounts have lessened drastically. The trough will finally push east by Sunday night and pushing the boundary across the Appalachian Range finally. Some post frontal showers will be the only threat for Sunday night. All of this cloud cover and rain will make for cooler temperatures for tonight through Sunday night. In fact, high temps for tomorrow will be around 5 degrees below normal as well as tomorrow nights low temps. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 355 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2019 The models are in fair agreement with the start of the long term, showing an upper level trough progressing over the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a surface low pressure system will move to the northeast of the state. Wrap around moisture from this low will keep some chances for showers through Monday, but chances will decrease from west to east in the evening. Surface high pressure will then take hold for early Tuesday through Wednesday morning, ushering in drier and clearer weather during this time. An upper level disturbance is then slated to move through the upper Ohio Valley midweek and bring some chances for showers and also thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening, at least according to the GFS. The ECMWF shows little to no QPF during this time. Therefore, have followed the blended solution for PoPs closely with only minor adjustments given this discrepancy and uncertainty. Surface high pressure along with upper level ridging will then dominate the region for late week, with drier and clearer weather returning to eastern Kentucky Friday and into the start of next weekend. Temperatures will gradually increase over the extended period. Highs are expected to begin in the mid 60s Monday afternoon and increase to be around 80 degrees by next Saturday. Lows will also generally increase from the mid 40s to mid 50s by Saturday morning. Also, due to clearer skies and light winds, there will be the potential for the valleys to be cooler than the ridgetops Tuesday and Wednesday mornings and then again Friday morning.&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2019 With a stalled boundary over the area and moisture streaming northward. Thus will expect MVFR and below through the TAF period. Another wave will shift north tonight bringing another round of showers to the area. The saturated air mass in place with the boundary in place will keep IFR cigs in place. Will expect IFR and below cigs to continue through the rest of the TAF period. Due to the lack of a gradient in place, winds will be light and variable through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2019 A stalled out frontal boundary, along with a steady northward steam of Gulf of Mexico moisture, will bring rounds of showers, and perhaps a few storms, to eastern Kentucky during the TAF period. A wave of low pressure moving along the front will be the trigger for rain this evening and overnight. Based on the orientation of the front, and the anticipated movement of the aforementioned wave of energy, LOZ, SME and JKL should see the best chances for rain and the most widespread and intense rain. MVFR and IFR conditions were ongoing at the TAF sites at forecast issuance, and we expect conditions to fluctuate between the two overnight. By around dawn Sunday, IFR conditions are expected to set in for several hours, before gradually improving to MVFR through out the day. Rain should begin affecting all the TAF sites between 0 and 3Z. The rain should finally begin to taper off between 12 and 15Z on Sunday, with only scattered showers left over by around 18Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...AR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 341 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-122245- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 341 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible on the VA border on Sunday. Thunderstorms will also be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. SHALLENBERGER/CGAL
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service JACKSON KY 910 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019 KYZ086-116-117-120200- Clay-Knox-Leslie- 910 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KNOX...WEST CENTRAL LESLIE AND EASTERN CLAY COUNTIES... At 909 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fount, or 9 miles northeast of Barbourville, moving northeast at 30 mph. Locations impacted include... Manchester, Brightshade, Barnyard, Salt Gum, Goose Rock, Barcreek, Jarvis, Cranes Nest, Girdler, Jonsee, Ice Cliff, Park Valley, Cottongin, House, Hector, Boho, Oneida, Sibert, Bluehole and Horse Creek Junction. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. LAT...LON 3689 8373 3694 8393 3731 8365 3712 8336 TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 222DEG 28KT 3698 8377 GEOGERIAN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch reported water backing up onto the roadway at the intersection of Kentucky Highways 1491 and 190 near Clear Creek Springs.
Dispatch relayed a report of water running onto U.S. Highway 25E near Ferndale.
Dispatch reported a mudslide near the intersection of Kentucky Highways 1491 and 190 near Clear Creek Springs due to recent rounds of moderate to heavy rain.
Dispatch reported that multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall led to a mudslide on U.S. Highway 25E near Ferndale.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 812621, 812625, 812629, 812633.