Gusty southwest winds occurred this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. These winds, at times gusting up to 40-45 mph, led to isolated damage southwest of Monticello in Wayne County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Gusty southwest winds occurred this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. These winds, at times gusting up to 40-45 mph, led to isolated damage southwest of Monticello in Wayne County. Fallen trees took down power lines on Kentucky Highway 1009 between Jennings Hollow Road and Kentucky Highway 200, resulting in the closure of the road late this afternoon into the evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 30, 1:45 PM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 245 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 30 2019 Updated the grids mainly to fine tune temperatures and dewpoints through the rest of the afternoon - higher temps and lower dews are leading to lower RH values, as well. Also tweaked the PoPs and thunder chances through evening per the latest guidance from the CAMs and SPC-HRRR. Winds were increased with deeper mixing leading to higher gusts over our western counties currently. On account of this, have also updated the Fire Wx forecast and the wildfire spots that are active this afternoon. The updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1115 AM EDT SAT MAR 30 2019 14z sfc analysis shows strong WAA underway over eastern Kentucky in the warm sector of a developing sfc low to the north and ahead of an approaching cold front to the northwest. This is supporting winds out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible - mainly west - through the afternoon. On radar, a few showers are tracking through our northwest counties with others poised to affect western parts early this afternoon, while the east will be mainly dry per the latest CAMs. Temperatures have rebounded to well into the mid and upper 60s across eastern Kentucky under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Dewpoints, meanwhile, range from the low 50s west to the mid 40s east. For this afternoon and into the evening have kept the Wx grids mostly clean with showers and any storms mostly expected to stay west through sunset. Did beef up the thunder wording for the HWO given the upgrade for our western counties to marginal risk for severe storms from SPC - owing to a good wind field and potential for a bit more instability around this afternoon. However, for our area we will likely have to wait for the front to get closer to sustain storms so the threat drops off quickly to the east with time this evening. Did update the grids with the above thoughts reflected and also to add in the latest obs and trends to the T/Td ones - noting that dewpoints are slow to increase so far this morning. The grids have bee sent to the NDFD and web servers along with an updated set of zones and HWO. UPDATE Issued at 805 AM EDT SAT MAR 30 2019 Radar mosaic continues to show very light echos across the area this morning. A quick look at surface obs indicates little if any of this activity is reaching the ground. However, radar trends indicate that some returns may become strong enough across the north to warrant an extention of PoPs for a few more hours before a lull in activity sets in. HRRR has suggested activity should weaken as it pushes eastward but this goes against trends. Will be making the necessary adjustments and bring grids in line with current conditions. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 519 AM EDT SAT MAR 30 2019 Surface analysis shows a frontal zone to our north across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. High pressure to our east and low pressure to our west will tighten up the surface pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley today, producing some gusty southerly winds across our area today. Some weak isentropic lift is evident in some of the higher resolution models and isolated to widely scattered returns on regional radar would support that idea. This activity will wane through the early morning as support lifts further north. Models appear to be in good agreement. Low pressure to our west will deepen slightly and move northeast into the Great Lakes in response to a mid/upper level trough dropping out of Canada. Some southern stream energy will phase with the trough, complicating the surface pattern just a bit and possibly delaying the cold fronts advance slightly. The surface cold front is expected to push across our forecast area tonight, entering our CWA by around 8 this evening. The frontal boundary is quite progressive and could be to the east of our area by as early Sunday morning. Ahead of the front we will gradually moisten up. NAM and GFS steepen up the boundary layer lapse rates considerably by this afternoon (>7 C/km), suggesting some sunshine and destabilization through a good part of the day. Mid level lapse rates are not far behind but are more moderate (~6-6.5 C/km). MUCAPE and shear are marginal over our area but are higher to our west supporting a better threat for thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction has issued a reasonable Marginal threat for severe thunderstorms across central portions of the Commonwealth as a result. This area reaches just up to some of our southwestern most counties. We will be monitoring in the event that area expands futher eastward into our CWA more proper. Sensible weather features a spike in afternoon highs today, solidly into the mid 70s, supported by a little sunshine and some gusty southwest winds. As inferred, trends in model solutions and guidance suggests we could see a bit of sun through the first half of the day. But more robust cloud cover will overspread the area by this afternoon as the threat of showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms increases. We are not expecting anything severe at this time, but with the marginal threat just to our west we probably could not rule out an isolated strong storm to the west of I-75. The threat does not appear to be high enough to mention in other products for now but will monitor for changes. Much colder and drier air will invade eastern Kentucky behind the cold front tonight. Temperature will drop into the 30s tonight and only climb into the mid 40s Sunday. But the weather will be fair with plenty of sunshine by Sunday afternoon, after morning clouds scour out from the exiting storm system. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 519 AM EDT SAT MAR 30 2019 An area of surface high pressure will progress east and crest across eastern Kentucky Sunday night into Monday morning. This will lead to a hard freeze and the potential for widespread frost, with low temperatures in the low to mid 20s in the valleys and mid to upper 20s on the ridges. Given some areas already have crops susceptible to freezing temperatures have hoisted a Freeze Watch for area generally south of I-64 from 3z to 14z Monday. This surface high pressure will remain in place Monday and will lead to a clear and calm day. There is some uncertainty for frost or colder temperatures for Monday night, as the surface high progresses east and a upper level wave ejects east out of the Southern Plains. Given this didn’t include frost Monday night due to the potential for some high clouds from this upper level feature and high shifting east allowing for a bit more mixing. The soundings indicate some lower clouds are also possible by Tuesday night leading to a lower chance for frost in the far east, so will keep better chances in in the western parts of the CWA. After this period of colder overnight low temperatures, the temperatures warm Wednesday into Thursday under the influence of upper level ridging and surface high pressure. The next feature of interest will be a developing surface low and upper level trough axis moving east out of the Plains Thursday night into Friday. There remain some model inconsistencies on the location of the surface low and the development of the trough axis and this will have implications on the sensible weather. There is enough agreement to keep chance to likely POPs, as surface low and cold front track across the Ohio Valley. Given some instability and decent mid-level lapse rates did add slight thunder for Friday afternoon, but given the cloud cover couldn’t go much more than slight at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT MAR 30 2019 Generally looking at VFR conditions through the first part of the aviation forecast. Flight conditions will deteriorate into MVFR territory after sunset as a cold front pushes through the region, producing widespread showers. Included a mention of thunder at our southern and western most terminals where instability will be best early this evening. Otherwise, strong gradient south to southwest winds can be anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front, to between 10 and 15 kts with gusts to between 25 and 35 kts. These winds will switch to the northwest with the passing of the front and fairly quickly diminish to between 10 and 20 kts late this evening. The post frontal, lower cigs will break up Sunday morning from west to east while wind will be northwest at around 10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...RAY/GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 310 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-312215- Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne- McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe- Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie- Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 310 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Through early evening gusty southwest winds will bring winds of between 30 and 35 mph to the area. Combined with relative humidities falling into the 30s there will be an enhanced fire risk through sunset. Thunderstorms are possible into this evening as a strong cold front moves through the region. A few of the storms this evening could be strong with damaging wind gusts the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A hard freeze is expected Sunday evening through Monday morning. Frost will also be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms are possible on Friday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. KYZ044-050>052-312215- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, and Morehead 310 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Through early evening gusty southwest winds will bring winds of between 30 and 35 mph to the area. Combined with relative humidities falling into the 30s there will be an enhanced fire risk through sunset. Thunderstorms are possible into this evening as a strong cold front moves through the region. A few of the storms this evening could be strong with damaging wind gusts the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Frost and freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night. Frost will also be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. RAY/GREIF
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 805478.