5 inches once again fell across portions of southeast Kentucky. This led to renewed flooding issues and additional mud/rock slides in Rockcastle, McCreary, Perry, and Harlan Counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
After a couple day dry spell, rainfall amounts of up to 1-1.5 inches once again fell across portions of southeast Kentucky. This led to renewed flooding issues and additional mud/rock slides in Rockcastle, McCreary, Perry, and Harlan Counties.
This round of rainfall prompted the Perry County Judge-Executive to declare a local state of emergency for the county as damages from this and previous events totaled over $100,000.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 17, 1:11 PM EST, 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 111 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 111 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2019 Freshened up the PoP trends into this evening once again. A batch of convection blossomed across north central Kentucky in the past hour and is currently moving across our Bluegrass counties. Meanwhile, a line of showers and storms is ongoing across portions of the Cumberland River Basin, and this looks to continue over the next few hours, before the precipitation shield likely expands more. Have upped the thunder chances based on the latest radar trends and lingering elevated instability across the region through this afternoon. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 1151 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2019 Temperatures have warmed well above freezing at this point, so let the advisory expire. Shower activity is already refiring across our area, with even a few lightning pulses noted. Have freshened up the hourly PoPs through this evening to account for the latest radar as well as higher model resolution trends. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 1037 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2019 The first batch of rainfall is moving out as the best speed shear associated with a low level jet core has moved off to the east. Temperatures have responded this morning; however, there are a few stragglers still hovering around freezing. As such, held onto the winter weather advisory another hour for locations along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Have also tried to show at least a few hour lull in the activity as evident by the latest radar mosaic trends. Precipitation will then fill back in out ahead of another low level jet speed max moving in across the region and as broad low pressure shifts across the Ohio Valley. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 658 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2019 Widespread rain is moving east across east Kentucky with temperatures continuing to struggle to reach freezing. Updated temperatures to lower values through the next several hours as its probably not until after dawn that temperatures will finally start to climb. Thus, this change provided more freezing rain in the advisory area and south and thus, the freezing rain advisory was expanded earlier. So far the pavement outside the office here is not slick, but ice is accumulating on elevated surfaces such as cars. More rain continues to develop upstream and will move into the area through the morning, providing a very damp day across much of southeast Kentucky. A few more breaks from the rain may be noted north of the Mountain Parkway today. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 417 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2019 Isentropic ascent is spreading into east Kentucky this morning with widespread precipitation developing across the region. Temperatures continue to struggle to rise much with areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway still struggling to get above freezing. Plenty of warm air aloft to lead to an only liquid setup. Given the slower than expected rise and precipitation spreading into the area through dawn, have opted to go with a winter weather advisory for the freezing rain threat this morning. Opted to run the advisory through 10 am to give us plenty of space in case temperatures stay locked in below freezing. May need to watch areas just south of the advisory as temperature remain a degree or two under freezing. Still thinking worst case scenario is that temperatures should be above freezing by late morning. To the south, mainly a cold rain is expected. The initial surge of rain will exit to the east by midday, but a ribbon of elevated instability will push northeast across the area this afternoon leading to additional showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms. Already seeing thunder to our southwest this morning. This will lead to a small mention of thunder this afternoon. A cold front will cross the area this evening with widespread rain again expected along and ahead of the boundary. The heavier rain should target mainly southeast Kentucky today, where upwards of an inch of rainfall could be seen through this evening. We should be able to handle this amount of rain with only some small rises on creeks and rivers, but could prime the Cumberland River Basin for rainfall later this week. Rain will come to an end overnight, but cold advection will kick into gear with temperatures falling into the 30s by late tonight. Monday will be a chilly day as clouds will likely hold tight and temperatures struggling to rise much through the day with ongoing cold advection through the first part of the day. Will stay under guidance for highs today and tomorrow given the abundance of cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 500 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2019 Upper level heights should increase into Monday night as a shortwave ridge moves across the area. This axis of this ridge should move northeast of the area by late Tuesday. A strong mid and upper level ridge is expected to be centered near the Bahamas. At the beginning of the period, an upper level low/trough will be moving into the Four Corners region and across the Desert Southwest. As a another upstream trough nears the Pacific Northwest late Tuesday into Tuesday night, the upper level low/trough will move/eject into the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday and reach the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday night. Guidance remains consistent that this pattern of the mid and upper level ridging remaining in place to the southeast of East KY and centered near the Bahamas and trough passing by to the west will allow for steep SW to NE flow of deep moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico and southern Plains into the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley as well as the southern and central Appalachians. Even as the upper level low and trough weaken and pass by the northwest Wednesday night into Thursday, another trough will have deepened across the West, keeping southwest flow aloft in place through the end of the week. Weaker shortwaves in this flow will likely move across the OH Valley region until the system gradually moves into Plains around or near the end of the period. Uncertainty remains in the timing of when this will occur as with any of the individual waker shortwaves within the southwest flow aloft. Guidance remains in rather good agreement with the southwest flow aloft and periods of stronger moisture transport into the OH and TN Valley areas and portions of the Appalachians though some timing details remain uncertain and there is some variability in QPF. However, heavy totals are anticipated from Tuesday into Saturday. . At the surface, high pressure will be in control for Monday into Monday night associated with the shortwave ridge moving across the area and the associated height rises. However, once the SW flow takes hold, an initial area of low pressure is expected to track into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley late Tuesday night and into Wednesday and then depart to the northeast and weaken. A trailing cold front or sfc trough should reach near the crest of the Appalachians and possibly stall. This could be a lingering focus for rounds of rain as mid level waves in southwest flow pass. The southwest flow will lead to temperatures remaining on the mild, with no strong pushes of cold air behind the passing mid week system. Any of the passing weaker wave moving in this flow are expected to be able to tap into the persistent flow of deep Gulf moisture and lead to periods of strong moisture advection into the region. As the trough moves toward the Plains late in the period, another surface low should organize over the Gulf Coast states and begin approaching East KY. The consensus of blended model guidance, operational runs and WPC guidance remains very similar to the previous forecast cycle, with a multi day QPF of near or just over 2 inches in the north to as much as 5 inches across portions of the Cumberlands/northern Cumberland Plateau near the TN border into the KY/VA/TN tri state area. With soils already wet and the southern portion of the area expected to experience another significant rain in the short term period combined with the above normal rainfall over the past few weeks and months, forecasted rainfall of this magnitude is concerning. Rainfall of this magnitude will likely lead to flooding issues, especially across the Cumberland River basin into the headwaters of the Kentucky River basin where some of the highest 4 to 5 inch amounts are currently forecast. This rainfall will occur over a 5 day period, and as noted above, the eventual outcome may vary from the current guidance consensus. Timing as well as the magnitude and location of the heaviest rainfall could still change. However, there remains enough model consistency for moderate confidence in some level of flooding and associated impacts across the CWA. A Hydrological Outlooks has been issued for this threat and it will also be highlighted in the HWO and Weatherstory. Near the arrival of the precipitation late Tuesday into Tuesday evening, some snow or mixed precipitation may occur especially near or north of the Mtn Parkway and in the highest terrain near the VA border. Accumulations, if any, from that should be light. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2019 MVFR/IFR ceilings will fill in across the area through the rest of this afternoon, with widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms occurring at times. A cold front will move through the region this evening, with widespread rains coming to an end from northwest to southeast overnight. Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR and eventually VFR from the south into Monday. Southerly winds, of around 5 to 8 kts, will veer to the southwest and eventually west through this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW/JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 1133 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-181200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1133 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through early this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain through next week will bring a threat of flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers across the area. At this time, it appears that this threat is highest for locations south of the I-64 corridor. Please see the latest hydrological outlook for more information. Snow or mixed precipitation is possible generally north of the Mountain Parkway and in the highest elevations near the VA border on Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. KAS/JP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy rain, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Local dispatch relayed a report of water over Kentucky State Highway 92 southwest of Hollyhill.
Department of Highway officials reported a later rockslide due to heavy rainfall over the past couple of days.
Dispatch reported water over Mt. Zion Church Road outside of Renfro Valley.
Dispatch reported a mudslide, due to previous heavy rain, onto Kentucky State Highway 3449 west of Coldiron. This resulted in the closure of one lane for several hours.
The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet reported a mudslide on Kentucky State Highway 699, causing the blockage of the road for several hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 797841, 797870, 797840, 797842, 797843.