After a brief break in the rain on February 9, light rain began to once again impact eastern Kentucky on February 10. This continued through the 12th, causing additional mudslides across portions of Perry, Floyd, and Magoffin Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
After a brief break in the rain on February 9, light rain began to once again impact eastern Kentucky on February 10. This continued through the 12th, causing additional mudslides across portions of Perry, Floyd, and Magoffin Counties. The largest of these was south of Salyersville on Kentucky Highway 7 in Magoffin County, where an entire hill gave way and caused the closure of the road.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 12:37 PM EST, 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1237 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1029 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 We are monitoring light precipitation that is beginning to progress into portions of eastern Kentucky this morning. Some of this will fall as a mix of light rain, freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow, as the cold air remains nearer the surface and warmer air moves in aloft across the region this morning. The obs have been variable in reporting precipitation, but KIOB and KLEX are showing mixed precipitation and we had a MPING report of rain/snow mix south of London about around 10 AM. The light nature of the liquid/frozen precipitation should limit any issues on the roads, but some elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses could see some isolated issues particularly across the Bluegrass. Updated the grids to better show a mix of precipitation this morning and updated temperatures to better reflect the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 The forecast generally remains on track. Did tweak up the PoP timing based on the latest radar trends through this morning. Temperatures are recovering early today, with readings ranging from the mid 20s in the east and north, to the lower 30s west of I-75, and some mid 30s just on our doorstep across south central Kentucky. Still think any winter impacts will be minimal by the time the column can saturate enough based on upstream trends. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 453 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 The latest surface map features a weakening arctic high from the Great Lakes down to the Mid-Atlantic states. Low pressure is centered near the front range of the Rockies with an inverted surface trough nudged eastward across the Plains. Aloft, a deep upper level low is churning across the southern Oregon coast, with a short wave trough lifting east into the Plains. Skies had remained mostly clear across eastern Kentucky through around 3 am, before thicker mid and high level clouds advected in from the west. Current temperatures range from the upper teens in some of the cooler eastern valleys to around 30 degrees in portions of the southwestern valleys. Wet weather remains ahead, as an inverted surface trough becomes established across the Ohio Valley, while bouts of mid and upper level support move through aloft. This will bring widespread precipitation to the area today through Monday, with the more significant rainfall amounts likely holding off until Monday evening and beyond, as a more significant upper level trough moves through the Plains. Light rain/snow will move into the area this morning. Most of the higher resolution model guidance has been on the slow-side compared to radar mosaic trends. Consequently, did speed up the timing somewhat this morning. Most places in the southwest will likely be above freezing by the time all liquid falls to the surface, so will not mention any freezing rain potential at this time, but will monitor this closely. Further north, some snow will fall; however, very low snow ratios and light QPF will limit the accumulation to perhaps a dusting in a few places at best. Precipitation will transition to all rain into this afternoon, gradually overspreading the area from west to east. Highs today will range from the upper 30s north of I-64, to the mid 40s in southeastern Kentucky. Rain will continue tonight into Monday, gradually pivoting more toward the northwest with time, priming our area for potential hydro problems just beyond the short term. As such, will maintain the current Flood Watch configuration. Temperatures will trend above normal into Monday. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid to upper 30s. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 40s north, to the mid 50s south. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 453 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 The models begin in fair agreement with the upper level pattern, showing a deep trough over the central CONUS progressing into the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon. However, the GFS is slightly quicker than the ECMWF with the progression of this trough. At the surface, a warm front, associated with a progressive low pressure system moving in from the central Plains, will lift over the Commonwealth Tuesday. This will bring continued rain and also increased temperatures, with highs reaching the low 60s. With frontal passage, winds will also increase Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday, particularly in west-central Kentucky. Expecting some gusty winds during this time. Adjusted PoPs slightly Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the progressive nature of this system. Also, as the system moves to the east of Kentucky, a rain/snow mix is possible in the north and east early Wednesday due to decreasing temperatures overnight from cold front passage. Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will build over the southeastern CONUS, ushering in drier and clearer conditions for midweek. Another system is then slated to progress over eastern Kentucky to end the work week, bringing another round of rain and also the potential for a brief period of light snow and/or a rain/snow mix early Saturday with decreasing temperatures overnight; however, models are not in good agreement with this portion of the extended. Thus, confidence is low with precipitation onset, amounts, and type at this time. Future model runs will be monitored for better consensus on the development of this system. Because of this, decreased PoPs from the given categorical Thursday night through Friday. High temperatures will cool to be near normal Wednesday before warming to the 50s Thursday and Friday. Temperatures Saturday will then decrease to be below the seasonal norm. Low temperatures will begin well above normal, around 50 degrees Tuesday morning due to the passage of the surface warm front. Lows will then be slightly above normal for midweek, with the potential for valleys to be cooler Thursday morning due to light winds and few clouds. Friday morning lows will be in the 40s; however, Saturday morning will be much cooler with lows returning to be just above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 Periods of rain and even a wintry mix continue to track across portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon. There will be a relative lull in the precipitation until around 20Z or so based on the latest radar scans and short term models before rain fills back into eastern Kentucky. The CIGs are holding at VFR this afternoon, but we will see the CIGs decrease through the afternoon and evening. This will lead to a steady drop into MVFR CIGS through the evening, before seeing IFR or lower CIGS as we move through the night into Monday. There will also be further VIS restrictions of MVFR to IFR later this afternoon and tonight, as period of moderate to even at times heavy rain fall across the TAF sites. There is some potential for improvements in the restrictions late in the period, as we see the potential for a dry slot to develop Monday afternoon. The winds will remain light out of the south and east through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Tuesday afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-104-106-108-111. && UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...DJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 1138 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-104-106-108-111-111945- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Wolfe-Lee- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, Monticello, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Campton, and Beattyville 1138 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. A period of light wintry precipitation is possible through early this afternoon. This could lead to some isolated slicks spots mainly on elevated surfaces along and north of I-64. The main stem of the Kentucky River will run high through tonight as additional rainfall moves back into the area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Additional rounds of rainfall from Monday through Tuesday could result in minor flooding along creeks, streams, as well as some of the larger rivers. Also, these rains will bring a threat for mud and rock slides. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed for heavy rains and flood potential early in the week. KYZ080-084>088-107-109-110-112>120-111945- Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Johnson-Magoffin-Floyd- Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of London, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Paintsville, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1138 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. The Cumberland River near Williamsburg will run high through tonight due to recent rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Additional rounds of rainfall from Monday through Tuesday could result in minor flooding along creeks, streams, as well as some of the larger rivers. Also, these rains will bring a threat for mud and rock slides. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed for locally excessive rainfall early in the week. DJ
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 1127 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 KYZ044-050>052-101830- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, and Morehead 1127 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 ...Periods of Mixed Precipitation are Possible Through Early This Afternoon... Light wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet and even a touch of light freezing rain are possible through the early afternoon hours. The precipitation is expected to remain light, but this could still lead to some isolated slicks spots mainly on back roads and elevated surface such as bridges and overpasses. However, temperatures are expected to creep above freezing through the afternoon leading to a transition to all rain. DJ
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Department of Highways reported a mudslide on Kentucky Highway 80 east of Hazard, resulting in the closure of the road for over one day.
Kentucky Transportation Cabinet officials reported a mudslide on Kentucky Highway 1428 between Prestonsburg and Allen, forcing the closure of the road for over 2.5 hours.
A trained spotter observed water over Kentucky Highway 2011 near Beverly.
Department of Highway officials reported a massive mudslide on Kentucky Highway 7 south of Salyersville near Kentucky Highway 1766. The entire hill over the road gave way due to persistent rainfall, resulting in power lines becoming entangled in trees and forcing an extended closure of the highway.
Department of Highway officials reported a mudslide on North Main Street in Hazard. This caused trees and mud to cover the roadway as the hillside continued to give way.
The Department of Highways reported that heavy rain later resulted in a mudslide along Kentucky Highway 451 near the community of Christopher.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 797120, 797118, 797649, 797122, 797121, 797839.