Two to four inches of snow fell across north central Kansas on this Saturday night and Sunday. A large shield of light snow moved east out of Colorado into Kansas during the early to mid-evening hours.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Two to four inches of snow fell across north central Kansas on this Saturday night and Sunday. A large shield of light snow moved east out of Colorado into Kansas during the early to mid-evening hours. Between 10 PM and 12 AM CST, this area of snow overspread north central Kansas. Snow continued steadily falling through 4 AM CST. Between 4 and 6 AM CST, the snow ended from west to east. Snowfall amounts averaged 2 to 4 inches.
A bitterly cold Arctic air mass encompassed the central United States. High pressure over Montana was 1048 mb. The flow aloft did not depict how cold temperatures were at the surface. The flow was zonal, but a subtle shortwave trough extended from Kansas south to northern Texas. A very cold 510 dm low was over northern Ontario. The shield of light snow was produced from a combination of mid-level frontogenesis and quasi-geostrophic forcing associated with a a coupled jet streak configuration.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 9:49 PM CST, 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
949 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
Comments regarding the rest of tonight into Sunday AM:
1) Overall, only "cosmetic" changes have been made to overnight
snowfall expectations, as we are still calling for a healthy range
from less than one-half inch in counties north of Interstate 80,
generally 1-3 inches between the I-80 and Highway 6 corridors, 3-5
inches near the state line, and as much as 4-7 inches in our north
central KS zones.
2) Headlines (Advisories/Warnings):
The only change this evening was to drop a few of our northern
counties (Valley/Sherman/Howard) from the Winter Weather Advisory,
as snow amounts in these counties should be less than one-half
inch, and just not worthy of a formal headline for snow.
Otherwise, have kept Winter Weather Advisory going for most
Nebraska zones along/south of I-80 and the Winter Storm Warning
for KS zones, which have a greater chance of seeing 6+ inches.
Also, the ENTIRE coverage area goes under a Wind Chill Advisory
later tonight and lasting through Monday morning.
3) We are just starting to see our next round of accumulating snow
(more than flurries) get going across our southern zones, and this
activity will peak in intensity mainly between 11PM-5AM before
fading away to flurries and eventually ending by mid-morning. The
latest 00Z NAM/GFS runs looks very consistent with previous model
data, and thus very minimal/hardly any changes have been made this
evening to expected snow totals (as outlined above). As is often
the case, if nothing else, there might end up being a sharper
gradient than currently depicted along the northern edge of the
snow shield (between places that see almost nothing and those that
might pick up a good 1-2 inches), but incoming overnight shift
can adjust this with time if needed.
UPDATE Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
Quick note regarding the start time of the Winter Storm Warning
for our KS zones:
While there has been zero change in meteorological reasoning/snow
expectations from the main discussion below, felt it was at least
marginally worthwhile to officially delay the "start time" of the
Winter Storm Warning from 6PM to 8PM, as there should be little
more than flurries happening through that time, and in fact the
"main show" probably won't really get underway until the 10PM-
Midnight time frame. So, in all honestly probably could have
delayed the start of the Warning even more, but 8PM is at least an
improvement, and also coordinates well with Warning start times
from neighboring WFOs ICT/TOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 433 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
Round #2 of snow and bitter cold wind chills on track for
tonight.
Today has played out largely as expected thus far. Really the
only deviation from the previous forecast was that today's band of
snow was slightly further S. Snow amounts within the band have
largely been around 1 to 3 inches, though there have been a few
isolated areas of around 4 inches in a narrow swath from
Gothenburg to Minden to perhaps just S of Hastings. The first
round of snow has dissipated quite quickly over the last 1-2 hours
and is exiting the E/NE CWA as we speak. Flurries are possible
just about everywhere and anytime through early this evening, but
additional accumulations through 9pm look very light, if any.
Winds have been a bit higher than expected and has already
resulted in some blowing and drifting snow due to the very
dry/fluffy nature of the snow.
Attention shifts to the next round of snow expected to begin S
and W of the Tri-Cities in the 9pm to midnight time frame. Models
are in good agreement tracking a band of heavy snow along and S of
the NE/KS state line between midnight and 6am, with lighter snow
N of the main band, mainly between the state line and I-80. Snow
should quickly taper to mainly flurries N of I-80. Looking at the
forcing for this second round, it is strong, but progressive.
There is a classic coupled jet structure at H3 above strong
frontogenesis in the mid-levels, most notably in the H7-H5 layer.
Point forecast soundings along and S of the state line show a
saturated and very deep dendritic growth zone (DGZ) from near the
sfc to H5. The deep DGZ, isothermal layer in lowest 3km, and cold
sfc temps should lead to climatologically high snow to liquid
ratios near 20:1. All of the above factors could lead to heavy
snow rates of 1" to possibly 2" per hour over our KS counties for
an hr or two in the 06Z to 10Z time frame.
Snow Amounts: Have raised snow amounts an inch or two within the
warned area for tonight. Expect storm total snow of 4-7" in these
areas, with locally higher amounts certainly not out of the
question given the potential for high rates. Further N, expect a
fairly quick drop off in amounts with only 1-2" for the Tri-
Cities. Also, the gradient in snowfall between north central KS
and I-80 may be tighter than what is currently depicted as the
northern extent of the main band of snow still remains somewhat
uncertain.
Winds: North winds are forecast to increase once again late this
evening with gusts up to 30 mph and continue overnight. The snow
will be dry and fluffy, so it won't take much to create areas of
blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibilities.
Wind Chills: Wind chills falling to -15 to -30 degrees are on
track for tonight after midnight, coldest N of I-80. Recovery on
Sun aftn is very limited with values likely remaining -10 to -15
even during the middle of the aftn. Even though this is
technically above Wind Chill Advisory criteria of -20, felt these
values were significant enough to just continue the Advisory
through all of Sun and through Mon AM as well as values once again
fall to -20 to -30 Sun eve/night. May even have a case for Wind
Chill Warning for Valley and Greeley Counties Sun night, but will
let later shifts make that determination.
Otherwise, highs on Sun will be very cold...only in the single
digits. It still looks like we have a chance at breaking the
record cold max temp for calendar day (March 3) at both Grand
Island (GRI) and Hastings (HSI). Will try to update the "Climate"
section of the AFD later this evening or overnight. Highs on Mon
are not much better in the low to mid teens. Overnight lows Sun
night fall to around -10 degrees, and near zero Mon night.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 433 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
Not much time devoted to the long term portions of the forecast,
but the main story is continued COLD temperatures and at least a
few chances for more wintry precipitation.
Tue-Wed will be well below normal temperature wise and dry as an
axis of sfc high pressure dominates the Central Plains. Lows Tue
AM will be near or below zero with highs Tue aftn only in the
teens to low 20s. Modest warm air advection on Wed could push
highs into the 20s to maybe low 30s.
The next disturbance looks to arrive Wed night or Thu and bring
the potential for accumulating snow, perhaps mixed with rain in
the south. There also have been some hints at a more significant
system for next weekend somewhere in the region. Model to model
and run to run agreement regarding these systems is poor at this
time. However, the pattern appears to be an active one, and with
plenty of cold air still in place (going to be tough to warm up
much given widespread, significant snow cover) any wave that moves
through will have a good chance to produce wintry precipitation.
Something to keep in mind if traveling late this week or over the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 710 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
General overview:
The main issues during the period include a decent chance of
mainly light accumulating snow especially during the 05-11Z time
frame, and also just how much of the first half of the period
features MVFR versus VFR ceiling. Confidence is medium to medium-
high on these concerns. Otherwise, confidence is high regarding
winds, which will be fairly breezy through the entire period, but
with the strongest northerly sustained speeds of 15-20KT/gusts to
around 24KT focusing during the first half of the period, then
with a gradual decrease in speeds during the daytime Sunday.
Although not yet reflected officially, speeds by the very end of
the period should be under 10KT. Read on for more element-specific
details...
Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
As for ceiling, have high confidence in VFR through most of the
latter half of the period (and especially the final 6 hours).
However, these first 12 hours are a tricky call as to whether MVFR
or VFR prevails. Current thinking is that low-end VFR will be most
common right away this evening, with MVFR more favored between
05-11Z when steadier snow is more likely. As for visibility, will
start off this evening with very light snow/flurries promoting
mainly visbility of 5+ miles, but the aforementioned steadier
snow mainly 05-11Z time frame could easily result in several hours
of 2-3 SM (and perhaps briefly lower), before VFR returns for the
daytime Sunday. As for total new snow accumulation between now
and sunrise, am currently calling for generally 1-2", but with
both terminals near the far northern edge of the main snow band,
would not be surprised if it ends up being a bit less than this.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 948 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019
..Various notes on our remarkably cold recent/upcoming weather for
Grand Island/Hastings, our two primary long-term climate data sites..
MARCH 3 (TODAY) RECORD FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE LOOKING VERY
POSSIBLE:
- Although it could be a very close call (especially right around
when the calendar day starts at Midnight), we are currently
expecting both Grand Island and Hastings to set new records for
coldest March 3rd high temperature.
- The current record for Grand Island is 8 degrees in 1916
(forecast calls for a calendar day high of 6 degrees).
- The current record for Hastings is 9 degrees in 2002 (forecast
calls for a calendar day high of 7 degrees)
SECOND COLDEST FIRST WEEK OF MARCH VERY LIKELY:
- Based on observed data through these first two days and our
current official forecast through the 7th, both Grand
Island/Hastings are expected to endure the 2nd-coldest first
week of March on record. The top spot currently belongs to 1960,
when the first week averaged an incredible 28 degrees below
normal at Grand Island, and 26 degrees below normal at Hastings!
LONGEST STREAK AT-OR-BELOW FREEZING IN DECADES?
- Today will mark the 17th-consecutive day that both Grand Island
and Hastings will fail to climb above the freezing mark (32
degrees)!
- Based on our official forecast, this streak of remaining at-or-below
freezing could POTENTIALLY last through at least March 8th,
which would bring it up to at least 22 days!
- The last time Grand Island (GRI) had a 22+ day streak of at-or- elow
freezing was 26 years ago, with a 22-day stretch from Dec. 9-
30, 1983. The record-longest streak is 31 days from Jan. 22-Feb.
21, 1936.
- The last time Hastings (HSI) had a 22+ day streak of at-or-below
freezing was actually the record-longest streak of 30 days, way
back from Jan. 23-Feb. 21, 1936.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for NEZ060>062-
072>076-082>087.
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Monday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ005>007-
017>019.
Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Thies
LONG TERM...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...PfannkuchHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Hastings NE 919 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 031200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 919 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Overnight. Most Nebraska counties along and south of Interstate 80 are in a Winter Weather Advisory. All north central Kansas counties are in a Winter Storm Warning. The entire outlook area will be in a Wind Chill Advisory starting late tonight. Please refer to all Advisory and Warning statements for further information. Minor flooding continues along the Platte river in east-central Hall County, particularly near the Interstate 80 and Highway 281 interchange. Please refer to the Flood Advisory statement for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for the entire outlook area from Sunday morning through Monday morning. Please refer to the Advisory message for further information. Although wind chill readings Monday night into Tuesday morning should not be as severe as previous nights, they could still drop to as low as -15 to -20 degrees in much of the area. Minor flooding is expected to continue along the Platte river in east-central Hall County for several more days, particularly near the Interstate 80 and Highway 281 interchange. Please refer to the Flood Advisory statement for more details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. However, we encourage spotters to pass along any snowfall reports. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Pfannkuch
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
635 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM SNOW GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.31W
03/02/2019 M1.7 INCH HALL NE ASOS
OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND SNOWFALL SO FAR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW ONGOING.
&&
PFANNKUCHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
639 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM SNOW NWS HASTINGS OFFICE 40.65N 98.38W
03/02/2019 M2.0 INCH ADAMS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS
OFFICIAL HASTINGS SNOW SO FAR TODAY...LIGHT
SNOW ONGOING.
&&
PFANNKUCHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, March 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 806672, 806674, 806675, 806676, 806677, 806678.