Although this six-county North Central Kansas area was spared the considerable wind damage that impacted several Nebraska counties within 25-50 miles north of the state line, there were still a few severe-criteria wind reports during the early morning hours of the 21st as the southern ends of two separate linear mesoscale convective systems (MCS) tracked through. m.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Although this six-county North Central Kansas area was spared the considerable wind damage that impacted several Nebraska counties within 25-50 miles north of the state line, there were still a few severe-criteria wind reports during the early morning hours of the 21st as the southern ends of two separate linear mesoscale convective systems (MCS) tracked through. The first storm complex traversed the area between midnight-3 a.m. CDT, mainly favoring locations north of the Highway 24 corridor. Upon first entering Phillips County, a mesonet near Logan clocked a 59 MPH wind gust. After this first system departed local counties to the east, there was a brief lull in convection before the second MCS arrived from the northwest, entering Phillips and Smith counties between 4:30-5:30 a.m. CDT. This system intensified a bit as it migrated east-southeast, producing a 60 MPH gust at Burr Oak (estimated) and 62 MPH near Webber (measured). The back edge of this second MCS departed the local area out of Jewell and Mitchell counties by 7:30 a.m. CDT, finally ending the stormy night.
Looking at the meteorological setup, this was a fairly classic recipe for intense overnight convection in the Central Plains. In the mid-upper levels, seasonably-strong, west-southwesterly flow was in place, downstream from a large-scale trough centered over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, North Central Kansas resided directly along a west-east oriented front. As a low-amplitude disturbance entered primarily southern Nebraska during the evening, this forcing combined with a very unstable airmass and increasing moisture convergence within the exit region of a 30-40 knot southerly low level jet to spark the MCS activity. By late-night standards, it was a fairly volatile mesoscale environment, featuring 2000-4000 J/kg most-unstable CAPE and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear. Fortunately for North Central Kansas, the most intense portion of the night's first MCS remained slightly north of the state line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 20, 7:48 PM CST, 3 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 848 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 ...Short Term Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Some commentary about the next 12-24 hours: 1) Overnight severe storm potential still on track: Per the latest Mesoscale Discussion from SPC, we are still very much anticipating at least one or more clusters/rounds of strong- to-severe storms overnight (mainly after 11 PM), and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most/all of the CWA is anticipated to be issued sometime in the next few hours. From our local perspective, things are still very much on track from the main afternoon discussion below. We have apparently "dodged" the slim possibility of any early-evening storm development in our southern zones (although a severe storm did develop slightly east of our CWA in northeast KS a few hours ago). Thus, nearly our full attention is focused westward, where isolated severe convection is well- underway in the NE/KS/CO border region. With time, this convection will roll east into our CWA, and likely grow upscale into one or more lines/clusters, with more isolated activity probably developing behind these larger-scale complexes in response to lift along the residual elevated cold pool/along axis of southerly low level jet evident at 850 millibars. Even late in the night, elevated instability/CAPE in the 850-700 millibar layer is progged to remain quite stout (2000-4000 J/kg) per the latest RAP13, so it's a semi-volatile environment around here (at least by late- night standards). Did tweak our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) to increase severe wind potential to 70 MPH, especially if storms form into bowing segments. Hail up to around golf ball size remains on track, but this will probably be the larger exception. Not expecting widespread flooding issues, but some areas could pick up a quick 1-2" of rain, with localized/short-term flooding certainly a possibility. IN SUMMARY: Several strong to severe storms are likely overnight, starting around roughly 11 PM in our far west and spreading eastward overnight. At least an isolated severe storm threat could even last past sunrise (perhaps to around 7 AM). 2) Friday trending somewhat cloudier/cooler: Not as pressing as number 1 above, but latest model data has been trending cloudier and thus at least slightly cooler for Friday. In an earlier update, increased sky cover and lowered high temps generally 2-3 degrees from initial afternoon forecast package, and could easily see our overnight forecast shaving a few more degrees off. If these cloudier trends do in fact verify, it may be tough for much of the northwest 2/3 of our CWA to exceed 80 degrees, and with low 90s less likely over our far south in KS. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 This main focus for this forecast is multiple rounds of potentially severe thunderstorms. Currently, a surface cold front is dropping south across the area, shifting winds from the south to the northwest and north. This feature is forecast to stall out across the area this evening. A few CAMs still show isolated storms near the late this afternoon and evening, but these chances remain low. The stronger signal in the near-term models has been for one or more clusters of thunderstorms to develop over western Nebraska and Kansas and track through the local area late tonight. Activity will likely then persist into Friday morning as we will be on the nose of a 30-35kt low-level jet. These storms should be elevated in nature so I believe the main threat will be large hail. RAP soundings show 2500-3000J of elevated CAPE above 850mb along with ample shear, therefore the strongest storms could easily have hail to the size of golf balls...or larger. The strongest organized cold pools may allow for isolated severe wind gusts as well. The HRRR shows the initial line of storms to be pretty progressive, but shows additional scattered showers and storms developing behind it. As a result some isolated locations could also pick up some heavy rainfall totals as well. Storms may linger into Friday morning, but we should mostly dry conditions return by mid to morning into the early afternoon. Areas near and south of the the surface boundary will have plenty of instability to work with as temperatures surge into the 80s and low 90s. Convective development remain somewhat uncertain, though. For the most part, models show our area remaining free of surface-based convection during the afternoon and evening with developing southeast of the local area. Then additional convection may move in from the west again overnight. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Convective details continue to get more uncertain into Saturday. That being said, it appears that at least southeastern portions of the area still have a shot to see severe storms with the front stalled nearby and the upper trough over the Rockies slowly pushing eastward. On Sunday, the upper trough finally pushes through the area. This will bring us another day with shower and storm chances. The area should then finally see a couple dry days Monday and Tuesday as the system departs and we see rising heights aloft. As we return to westerly flow aloft and southwesterly flow at the surface, temperatures should be able to return to the upper 80s and 90s. A few subtle disturbances move through the area Tuesday night through Thursday bringing low-end chances for rain. Better chances will likely hold off until the next trough moves over the Rockies the following weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday) Issued at 719 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 General overview: There are clearly two main issues during the period: 1) A good chance of thunderstorms (potentially severe) overnight, especially during the 05-10Z time frame...2) What appears to be increasing chances for sub-VFR ceiling through much of the latter half of the period (Friday daytime). Otherwise, OUTSIDE of thunderstorm outflow/influences, surface winds should not be a big issue, with speeds generally at-or-below 10KT and direction generally some variation of easterly through much of the period, but more northerly by late Friday afternoon. Read on for more details regarding thunderstorm/ceiling issues... Thunderstorms: Confidence is high in storm-free conditions through at least these first 4-5 hours, but after that expect a somewhat "bumpy ride" overnight, as there is a decent chance that one or more clusters/lines of storms will pass through. Decided to introduce TEMPO groups covering the 05-10Z period to highlight the overall best window of opportunity for convection, with a "vicinity" (VCTS) mention covering hours slightly before and after. Severe storms are possible with damaging winds/hail, and for now have gone with a basic "VRB30KT" wind mention during the TEMPO timeframe, along with an MVFR visibility mention (although it could certainly be well-below this for brief times). Although the chance of at least isolated showers could linger past sunrise, the majority of the latter 12 hours should be dry, and have refrained from introducing any additional thunderstorm mention into Friday afternoon for now. Ceiling trends/uncertainty: High confidence in VFR through at least the first 4-6 hours, and moderately-high confidence in predominantly VFR through the first 12 hours. However, there are increasing signals that much of the latter half of the period (Friday daytime) will feature MVFR ceiling, with even some potential for periodic IFR. For now, have not bought fully into the most pessimistic solutions, but have introduced MVFR to most of Friday daytime. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && UPDATE...Pfannkuch SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Hastings NE 814 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 211100- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 814 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Overnight. There is a good chance of thunderstorms across most of the outlook area between 11 PM and sunrise, with some storms likely to be severe. The general expectation is for one or two larger-scale lines or clusters of storms to sweep across the area from west- to-east, with perhaps more isolated to scattered activity redeveloping behind them. The main severe weather threats overnight will be damaging wind gusts up to around 70 MPH and large hail up to around golf ball size. Although flooding is not expected to be a major issue, localized areas could receive a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain, which could promote at least brief, minor flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A few thunderstorms may linger across portions of the outlook area into Friday morning, but better chances will return once again late Friday afternoon and mainly Friday night. There will again be the potential for strong to severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rain the primary hazards. There are additional chances for thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday, then again Tuesday night into Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed across various portions of the outlook area overnight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Pfannkuch
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1127 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1125 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE CAMBRIDGE 40.30N 100.16W
06/20/2019 M2.25 INCH FURNAS NE MESONET
2.25 INCHES OF RAIN HAS MOSTLY FALLEN IN THE
LAST HOUR. STILL RAINING AS OF THIS REPORT.
&&
JMBWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1129 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1118 PM TSTM WND GST EDISON 40.28N 99.78W
06/20/2019 E50 MPH FURNAS NE CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
KSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1127 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N ARAPAHOE 40.34N 99.90W
06/20/2019 M60 MPH FURNAS NE MESONET
&&
KSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1154 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1137 PM TSTM WND GST AG VALLEY CO-OP, EDISON 40.28N 99.78W
06/20/2019 M72 MPH FURNAS NE MESONET
GRAIN ELEVATOR ANEMOMETER.
&&
KSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1156 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1153 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N OXFORD 40.27N 99.63W
06/20/2019 M73 MPH FURNAS NE MESONET
&&
KSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1154 PM TSTM WND GST 4.7 NNW OXFORD 40.32N 99.67W
06/20/2019 M72 MPH FURNAS NE MESONET
&&
KSThe Grand Island radar (KUEX), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:00 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 59 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located 1 mile west of Logan.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
A wind gust of 62 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located 5 miles east-northeast of Webber.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 837320, 837322, 837323.