A line of storms developed to the northwest of central North Carolina during the early afternoon associated with a strong mid level disturbance and associated cold front. The storms moved into central NC and interacted with a warm and unstable atmosphere and intensified and increased in coverage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A line of storms developed to the northwest of central North Carolina during the early afternoon associated with a strong mid level disturbance and associated cold front. The storms moved into central NC and interacted with a warm and unstable atmosphere and intensified and increased in coverage. A large percentage of the storms became severe and produced wind damage across central North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 20, 11:30 AM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1230 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A vigorous mid level disturbance will cross the Carolinas this afternoon. A surface cold front will cross the region tonight, followed by high pressure and a drier and more stable air mass for Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1040 AM Thursday... ...Severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon through early evening across central NC... A significant early summer severe weather event appears likely this afternoon through early evening across central NC. The main severe weather hazards will be damaging wind gusts as high as 65 mph, large hail and frequent lightning strikes. 12Z upper air analysis depicts a decent low-mid level jet crossing the Deep South/TN Valley with a 40-45kt jet crossing MS/AL this morning and a 40kt mid level jet overhead. The kinematics are in place to support organized convection with effective bulk shear expected to be 35-40kts this afternoon/early evening. Strong insolation this morning through early afternoon will prime the atmosphere with surface based CAPE projected to be as high as 3000 j/kg and mixed layer CAPE 1200-1500 J/kg. With sfc temperatures warming into the low-mid 90s, anticipate low level lapse rates on the order of 8.5-9 deg C/km, highly supportive of damaging convective wind gusts. Additionally, model soundings for this afternoon depict CAPE in the favored hail growth zone as high as 700- 800 J/kg. This suggest a decent threat for large hail along with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Finally, synoptic lift will be increasing this afternoon as central NC will be in the right entrance region of a 110+kt upper jet lifting newd across the central Appalachians. Expect main convective mode to be broken bands of convection with an isolated supercell or two possible out ahead of the banded convection. Current PoP forecast appears to have a good handle on the coverage. May adjust the timing (slightly slower than earlier forecast) though the bulk of the convective activity will occur in the 4 PM-9 PM time frame. A broken band of convection will depart our eastern periphery prior to 03Z. A surface cold front will drift across the region overnight through early Friday. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or two along the front though the atmosphere will be drying out in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere after 06Z. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 515 AM Thursday... A longwave ridge will amplify across the MS Valley, with related nwly flow aloft developing across NC through early Sat. Associated height rises aloft and subsidence will yield the development of a strong capping inversion that should suppress convective development through most of the period. The exception, however, will be the potential remnants of upstream convection/MCSs in nwly flow, which may cross the Appalachians and affect the NC Foothills and NW Piedmont in a weakened state by daybreak Sat. At the very least convective blow-off/mid to high-lvl cloudiness will cause skies to become mostly cloudy to cloudy through the same time, after a sunny Fri. It will be less hot, and near average, in post-frontal high pressure, with highs ranging from mid 80s across the nrn Piedmont to 90-92 degrees across the srn Piedmont and Sandhills, and with low temperatures in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Thursday... Not much structural changes to the long term portion of the forecast. 06z models have trended a bit further east with the possible MCV type system, forecast to spill southeast out of the Ohio valley, crossing central NC around peak heating Saturday. Have trended POPs further east in response, with showers/storms likely lingering into early Sunday, especially across the western zones. If this scenario were to come true, temps would struggle to reach the 80 degree mark across much of the area due to persistent cloud cover and lingering precipitation. With inherent uncertainties in MCV type forecasts 48 hours+, have sided closer to climatology with my high Ts on Saturday, topping out in the mid to upper 80s (north) with low 90s (south). This could, however, be on the magnitude of 6 to 10 degree too warm depending on the ultimate track and intensity of the MCV. Elsewhere, have trended a bit drier early next work-week with mid to upper level ridging winning out. Most of next week, however, the mid Atlantic region will remain in the battle ground region between the western periphery of the ridge (centered to our SE) and the best upper-level jet support (to our N). Thus, slight changes in either direction could shift the forecast considerably. Previous valid discussion... Saturday morning a strong upper level low will be located over Newfoundland and Labrador with mid-level heights quickly rising over the Great Lakes. For central North Carolina a leftover cold front will be stalled near the SC/ NC border. The main question for Saturday morning remains vorticity that is scheduled to break off from an upper level low located near ND. The overall thinking is for this wedge of PV to dive southeast towards NC/ SC Saturday. The ECMWF, GFS, NAM, and CMC all show this happening in one form or another. The general track of the PV and some type of MCS appears to be anywhere from GA to NC. The current predictability with this event remains extremely low at this point, so for now have kept mostly chance PoPs Saturday. Saturday evening into Sunday morning another weak disturbance is forecast to push across the area in the NW flow with even lower confidence on the eventual track and strength of this wave. Monday into Tuesday mid-level ridging will move overhead as the next shortwave approaches the Great Lakes. Out ahead of this next wave precipitation chances will decrease slightly as mid-level ridging temporarily increases. Forecast soundings for both days show a low level CAP forming with a skinny CAPE profile. 850 mb temperatures Monday and Tuesday also rise to around 20 degrees C which will support high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The above likely means that Monday and Tuesday will be relatively warm with lower chances of convection. Tuesday into Wednesday the wave will eject northeast into Canada with temperatures continuing above normal for central NC. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 AM Thursday... Patches of MVFR stratus will lift and scatter through 14Z. VFR conditions, and a breezy and gusty swly surface wind, will otherwise prevail through early this afternoon. However, the approach of a vigorous mid level disturbance will cause initially discrete storms to develop over the wrn Carolinas between 16-19Z. These storms will subsequently spread enewd across cntl NC, with some merging into fast-moving clusters with 45-60 kt surface wind gusts, and others remaining discrete with large hail, through 00Z. A cold front will cross the region late tonight, with following nwly winds and drier and more stable air that will yield VFR conditions through Sat. Outlook: NW flow aloft, and low level moisture return into a lingering frontal zone over the srn Appalachians and Carolinas, will direct clusters of showers and storms across the region this weekend into early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...JJM/BAH AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 151 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-211800- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 151 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions to their local law enforcement and ask them to relay it to the National Weather Service in Raleigh.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
123 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
NCZ021-201815-
Forsyth NC-
123 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE INTO AND AFFECT FORSYTH COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...
At 121 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Yadkinville, moving east at 45 mph. This storm may strengthen,
requiring a future Severe Thunderstorm Warning Issuance.
Nickel size hail, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and heavy rainfall
will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Kernersville, Clemmons, Bermuda Run, Huntsville,
Lewisville, Walkertown, Rural Hall, Pfafftown and Belews Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
If on or near Belews Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3611 8051 3612 8046 3614 8044 3621 8045
3622 8043 3624 8045 3626 8045 3626 8004
3601 8005 3603 8021 3600 8022 3600 8032
3597 8040 3599 8042 3601 8042 3606 8046
3604 8049 3605 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 275DEG 37KT 3614 8068
MORROWThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:02 UTC.
48 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were reported down and in the roadways across Winston-Salem area.
Several trees were reported down on Pleasant Ridge Road between Lewiston Road and Bunch Road.
One tree was reported down across Spencer Dixon Road near Kellam Ridge Drive.
A utility pole was reported down on a house.
One tree was reported down and blocking Doggett Road near the bridge over Lake Townsend.
One tree was reported down on a house.
One tree was reported down across East Cone Boulevard, near United States Highway 29.
One tree was down across Yanceyville Street near East Cone Boulevard.
One tree was reported on a house on James Place near Guest Street.
Numerous trees were reported down around southern portions of Hyco Lake, especially along Wagstaff Carver Road.
A tree was reported down on house in the Burlington area.
A large tree and power lines were reported down near the intersection of McGhees Mill Road and Mount Carmel Road on the North Carolina side of the border.
A tree was reported down on a house south of Hurdle Mills.
One tree was reported down on a house on the 1800 block of High Plains Road.
One tree and a power pole was reported down across Randolph Street.
Five power lines and three trees were reported down in the Burlington area.
A large tree was reported down on a hours on Chambers Loop Road near Riverbend Way.
One tree was reported down across a roadway near Virginia Avenue and North Main Street.
A tree fell on a vehicle and was blocking the street near the intersection of Tucker Street and Fix Street.
One tree was reported down near the intersection of Hanford Road and Cedarcrest Drive.
One tree was reported down on a house in the 1100 block of Chambers Loop Road.
One tree was reported down along South Fayetteville Street.
Power lines were reported down along East Franklin Street near the intersection with Plant Road.
A large tree was reported down near the intersection of Bradshaw Quarry Road and Vernon Road.
Multiple trees were reported down in downtown Durham.
One tree was reported down on a house in Chapel Hill.
Multiple trees were reported down in Silk Hope.
Multiple trees were reported down from Butner to Creedmoor.
Multiple trees were reported down near Littleton.
Several trees were reported down near Warrenton.
Numerous trees, power lines, and power poles were reported down at Thomas A Betts Parkway and Unites States Highway 301.
A few trees were reported down near the intersection of Old Milburnie Road and Knightdale Boulevard.
Trees were reported down along I-95 northbound near mile marker 140.
One tree was reported down along New Hope Road near the intersection with North Carolina Highway 49.
One tree was reported down on Lassiter Mill Road near the intersection with Waynick Meadow Road.
Several trees were reported down along Highway 109 near Jim Elliott Road.
Numerous trees and power lines were reported down in the New London area.
Numerous trees were reported down in southwestern Chatham County.
Two trees were reported down along New Hope Road.
Numerous trees and power lines were reported down.
Two large trees were reported down.
A tree was reported down across the road.
A tree was reported down across the road.
Numerous trees and power lines were reported down.
One tree was reported down in the road on Pleasant Grove Church Road.
An 11 inch diameter tree was reported uprooted and across Shore Drive in Garner.
One tree was reported down along Vandora Springs Road between North Hall Boulevard and Miriam Avenue.
Two trees were reported down on Deep River Road near United States Highway 1.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 834321, 834322, 834340, 834341, 834342, 834343, 834344, 834345, 834346, 834347, 834348, 834349, 834350, 834351, 834352, 834800, 834801, 834802, 834803, 834804, 834805, 834806, 834807, 834808, 834809, 834810, 834811, 834841, 834844, 834845, 834846, 834847, 834848, 834849, 834850, 834851, 834852, 834853, 834854, 834855, and more.