Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 28, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy approaching the Upper
Mississippi Valley with a weak surface cold front extending from
north central Nebraska into northwest KS.

Pockets of weak elevated convection has been tracking across
northern KS/eastern Nebraska in response to some mid level warm
advection. Current thinking is that a storm or two may develop
along the surface front late this afternoon or early evening, but
feel coverage may increase slightly this evening in response to
increased 850mb theta-e advection with any activity this evening
and overnight expected to be elevated. Better large scale forcing
being well off to the northeast should keep activity from becoming
too widespread. Still thinking the stronger storms will be capable
of 50 mph winds and possibly some small hail.

By 12z Mon storms should be pushing into eastern OK and southern
MO as weak surface high pressure settles over the area. Should see
highs on Mon a degree or two cooler than the last several behind
the weak cold front. There is some model agreement on convection
developing Mon night in response to warm advection along a tight
mid level baroclinic zone that is expected to lift off to the
northeast. Nebraska into northern KS looks to have the better
chances of being affected by showers and storms Mon night. Any
convection that develops Mon night should linger into Tue across
eastern Nebraska into northeast KS as upper ridging continues to
build over the southern Rockies into the central/southern High
Plains. Not out of the question to see elevated storms develop
again late Tue night and again Wed night over eastern KS as the
mid level temps gradient remains in place. In addition, eastern KS
will be under an area of weak upper diffluence.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

GFS and ECMWF continue to agree on tracking another shortwave out
of the Central Rockies and into the Central Plains for Thu night
into Fri which will cause the upper high to retreat slightly to
the southwest. This may bring a more active pattern to much of our
area as the better mid/upper flow also shifts southwest to
encompass more of our forecast area. So will continue the trend of
increasing pops for the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Breezy southeast winds will veer to the southwest ahead of a weak
frontal boundary before shifting to the north and northeast in
the wake of the front late tonight and into the morning hours on
Mon. An isolated storm or two will remain possible through
tonight, but VFR is expected to prevail through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  92  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      69  92  65  93 /  30   0  10   0
Newton          70  91  65  91 /  30   0  10   0
ElDorado        70  90  65  90 /  30   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   73  92  66  92 /  30   0   0   0
Russell         66  93  64  96 /  30   0  10  10
Great Bend      68  92  64  96 /  30   0  10   0
Salina          69  92  65  92 /  30   0  10  10
McPherson       69  90  63  91 /  40   0  10   0
Coffeyville     74  91  66  91 /  40  10   0   0
Chanute         72  90  64  88 /  40  10   0   0
Iola            72  90  64  88 /  40  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  90  66  89 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
424 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-291015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
424 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of Central, South-Central
and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms will spread southeast across the area tonight. The
stronger storms will be capable of 50 mph winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be possible early Wednesday and Thursday morning
for parts of southeast Kansas and for parts of central and southeast
Kansas Thursday night through Saturday. Strong storms look possible
with any storms that can develop for Wednesday through Saturday.

Heat indices around 100 are possible for areas primarily along, and
west, of a line from around Lincoln, thru Hutchinson, to near
Wellington Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Lawson