After a moderate to heavy rainfall event providing 2 to 3 inches just prior to this, the pump was primed so to speak for flooding potential. A generally stationary front resided south of the area into Missouri, but upper level and mid level flow strongly suggested storms would track north of the surface boundary and across portions of southern and central Iowa.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
After a moderate to heavy rainfall event providing 2 to 3 inches just prior to this, the pump was primed so to speak for flooding potential. A generally stationary front resided south of the area into Missouri, but upper level and mid level flow strongly suggested storms would track north of the surface boundary and across portions of southern and central Iowa. The initial wave of rain was initiated by a mid-upper level short wave riding the parent flow, triggering storms in the Oklahoma-Kansas region by late morning and traveled northeast throughout the day, eventually reaching Iowa by the late afternoon and evening. The initial round exited and subsided by midnight, only to see a second round initiated by the low level jet back in northeast and central Kansas. That second round made its way into southern Iowa by around 6 am and continued throughout the morning. When all said and done, heavy rainfall in excess of 5 inches was reported in a few locations, as well as multiple reports of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 28, 11:57 AM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1257 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 .DISCUSSION.../Today through Friday/ Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Main concerns through the forecast period will be on precipitation chances initially, then temperatures toward the end of the period. Currently have some ongoing showers and storms across the far south associated with an area of theta-e advection aloft, with the surface boundary that pushed through the area earlier Friday having sunk into northern MO. Near zonal flow aloft will transition to southwesterly flow through the upcoming weekend as an upper low moves ashore over the Pacific Northwest. This will keep the region in an active pattern into early next week. Today a shortwave trough will lift northeastward toward Iowa from the desert southwest. This energy will lift across Iowa late today into tonight and will allow WAA and moisture advection to be in place across the state with the boundary to the south lifting back north today into Sunday. This will bring additional precipitation chances by late today into tonight, and continue into Sunday. An area of high pressure across the US will retrograde some into Sunday and Monday and sandwich the area between the upper trough across the Rockies and intermountain west. A lobe of the western US trough will lift northeastward toward the northern Plains with a developing area of low pressure at the surface extending from the eastern SD southwestward into eastern CO. A baroclinic zone will be in place aloft across the state with a push of moisture off the Gulf and from the Baja California region streaming into the region. This will allow for much higher than normal moisture to flow into the region. Continued waves of energy aloft will allow for continued chances for showers and storms into early next week, setting up a wet period for this weekend through early to the middle of next week. PWATS late tonight into early next week will range from 1.7 to close to 2 inches at times which are near seasonal max values for this time of year. Still some chance for an isolated strong to severe storm Sunday into Monday with ok shear. Instability looks to wane some toward the middle of the week with more showery activity expected. For now have left some mention of thunder through the week, but can fine tune as that time nears. Otherwise large area of high pressure to build into the region late in the period with precipitation chances diminishing. Much colder air to move into the state by Thursday into Friday with H85 temps dropping to near 0C which will bring the region the first cold snap of the season. For now have lows into the 40s to around 50 for Wednesday night and then into the 40s for Thursday night. Will have to monitor but if get clear skies with the high overhead, could potentially see a few 30s across the far north. Highs will be cooler toward the end of the week, with mainly 60s expected. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/ Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The primary concerns will be MVFR to LIFR stratus spreading northward into tonight as well as convective trends. MVFR was already in place at KOTM and will continue moving northward across all TAF sites by 06z. A fairly extended period of intermittent convection will also follow just behind the stratus. TAFs highlight varied periods of confidence in thunder and/or showers, ranging from -TSRA to VCSH into Sunday morning. Thunder is certainly possible otherwise, but have restricted mention for now until location and timing becomes more clear. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Beerends AVIATION...Small
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Des Moines IA 411 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>086-092>097-290915- Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo- Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun- Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene- Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper- Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union- Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne- Appanoose-Davis- 411 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight Non-severe thunderstorms are expected late today into tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Thunderstorms are expected on Sunday with a few strong storms possible late in the day or in the evening. Periods of rain and storms are likely from late Monday through early Thursday. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is anticipated and may lead to area river flooding and potential flash flooding. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, especially late Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not likely at this time. Ansorge
The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:29 UTC.
5 flash flood, 4 heavy rain, 2 flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Public reported 24 hour heavy rainfall of 5.90 inches 1 mile south of Bridgeview, near Rathbun Lake.
Trained spotter reported a 24 hour heavy rainfall total of 2.09 inches. The two full day total, Saturday and Sunday, was 2.79 inches.
CoCoRaHS observer recorded heavy rainfall of 5.77 inches over the past 24 hours.
A vehicle hauling a trailer attempted to turn around to avoid water over the roadway and got stuck.
Law enforcement reported water over Highway 63 north of Bloomfield. Power was also reported out across Bloomfield. Time estimated.
Public reported heavy rainfall of 1.50 inches from 8am to 3:30pm.
Law enforcement reported water over the road in the 2500 Block of 170th Ave in Appanoose County.
Law enforcement reported water over the road in the 2600 Block of 153rd Ave in Appanoose County.
Law enforcement reported water over the road in the 1900 Block of 520th St in Appanoose County.
Flooding was reported to be ongoing in Centerville as well as on several gravel roads around the county. One gravel road was washed out as well. One bridge abutment was damaged, causing the bridge to be closed.
Flooding was reported across much of the county in rural areas with numerous side and gravel roads closed due to water.
Public reported dime to quarter sized hail at the Casey's in Pomeroy. Time estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 856075, 856076, 856078, 856070, 856071, 856079, 856072, 856073, 856074, 856248, 856249, 856077.