Southward sinking boundary helped provide a focus for rapid thunderstorm development in a moderately unstable but poorly sheared environment. Some of the storms were able to reach severe levels across parts of the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
Southward sinking boundary helped provide a focus for rapid thunderstorm development in a moderately unstable but poorly sheared environment. Some of the storms were able to reach severe levels across parts of the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 12, 2:21 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 321 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop into the evening south of Route 6. There will be a lull in any convection late evening into the overnight before a cold front arrives on Friday with a round of showers and thunderstorms along it. Cooler and less humid weather will then arrive Friday night into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Frontal boundary has settled west to east across the region this afternoon. Convective temps in the mid to upper 80s have been met with cu field expanding, with showers and storms starting to pop south of the front in unstable but poorly sheared environment. As a result, by in large convection should be pulsy in nature with heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds being the main threat. Any storms that manage to interact with the front (and increased shear) as well as outflow boundary/mergers could attempt to become briefly severe. Trends to be monitored into the evening. Focus will shift to cold front well to the west that will begin to work towards the area with stationary front across the area starting to work back north later tonight into Friday. Models generally agree on line of showers and storms still forming upstream and working towards the western parts of the area in the 9 to 12Z Fri window. A non-zero threat for a strong or locally severe storm will exist late tonight with the line, which is the main basis for expansion of marginal risk of severe wind gusts into the area on SPC Day 1 outlook. Most likely, we will see a downward trend in convection during the morning, but uptick in the afternoon along the front as at least some instability will be in place for the eastern half of the area. Amount of cloud cover from morning convection is of concern as to exactly how much we destabilize and inherent severe threat. Marginal risk continues for SE half or so of area and is warranted for the time being. Heavy rain will probably end up the main concern with PWATs over 1.5 inches but decent eastward progress should limit any flood concerns. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Friday night into Saturday will give the A/C units a break with dewpoints in the 50s as the front settles south of the area, for a short visit. However, return flow will attempt to set back up as another disturbance drops southeast into the area with at least a chance for a shower Sat night into Sunday. Once this departs, upper level ridging will build in the Plains and work east with main axis setting up over the area. Highs will climb back into the 80s for much of the period after that point but remaining dry until towards the end of the period when longwave trough will be building to the west with normal timing differences. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A warm front located near the IN/MI this morning is modeled to sink south from 18z to 00z this afternoon allowing the better surface-based instability to really only be restricted to areas south US-30 for this evening's chances for stronger storms. But that front is expected to rise farther north heading into the overnight based on the convection firing in those models. Some of the Hi-Res CAM guidance is showing a few storms firing north of US-30 and if they can get tall enough, perhaps the shear would be able to sustain those storms, but would expect most of those storms to trend toward dissipation especially since shear is expected to weaker today than yesterday. Another issue will be lacking forcing for storm formation. Yesterday, showers and storms were able to form across the forecast area, but didn't really get going until they entered the better shear to our north closer to the front, which was into MI. Based on guidance, feel better chance for showers/storms exists at SBN as opposed to FWA so will include a TEMPO -SHRA for that time frame for now. Also, any showers and storms would have the potential to reduce flight conditions into at least MVFR and perhaps even as far as IFR with lowered ceilings and heavier rain may reduce visibility, but with a lacking confidence in storm timing, will leave that out for now and continue VFR as prevailing. Models have also been indicating post-sunrise MVFR CIGs are possible especially if the front can sag south as it did this morning after overnight convection. Seeing as this is towards the end of the period, will mention it here and let future shifts decide if they want to put it in. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Fisher SHORT TERM...Fisher LONG TERM...Fisher AVIATION...Roller Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 337 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-131945- La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke- Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN- Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien- Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance- Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 337 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 /237 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight will bring the chance for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible Friday. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall in the vicinity of storms are likely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LMZ043-046-131945- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 337 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible into tonight with locally hazardous conditions to small craft in the vicinity of these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible Friday. Conditions hazardous to small craft are likely in the vicinity of storms.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
407 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019
INZ015-122030-
Fulton-
407 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY...
At 407 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Rochester,
moving east at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Tiosa, Lake Manitou, Athens and Talma.
&&
LAT...LON 4117 8616 4117 8608 4109 8608 4108 8606
4104 8605 4104 8634 4111 8635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 258DEG 12KT 4111 8619
HAIL...0.25
WIND...40MPH
CRSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 433 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 INZ016-017-024-025-122115- Wabash-Whitley-Huntington-Kosciusko- 433 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WABASH... SOUTHWESTERN WHITLEY...NORTHWESTERN HUNTINGTON AND SOUTH CENTRAL KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES... At 433 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over North Manchester, moving southeast at 10 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... North Manchester, Ijamsville, Laketon, Liberty Mills, Bippus, Bracken and Luther. && LAT...LON 4098 8589 4109 8578 4103 8553 4084 8569 TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 294DEG 9KT 4098 8579 HAIL...0.25 WIND...50MPH CR
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:37 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
The public shared photos on social media of a tree snapped at the base with some corn stalks blown over on State Route 114, West of North Manchester.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 851320, 851319.