Rivers began rising again by mid-month as a pair of strong low pressure systems lifted northeast from the Plains to the Great Lakes region. The first system produced widespread heavy rain on the 9th, followed by another heavy rainfall event on the 14th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Rivers began rising again by mid-month as a pair of strong low pressure systems lifted northeast from the Plains to the Great Lakes region. The first system produced widespread heavy rain on the 9th, followed by another heavy rainfall event on the 14th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 11, 6:35 AM EST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 635 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019 Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019 The primary forecast concern in the near term is the potential for showers that peaks Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, in addition to a slight chance for thunder. Strong gradient winds are also a concern Wednesday afternoon and evening, but not nearly to the extent as forecast for Thursday. Forecast confidence remains higher than average with good model agreement. Starting with this morning, radar indicates light returns over far southern Missouri and western Kentucky. The closest observation indicating precipitation reaching the ground is Malden, Missouri. As such, we'll introduce a small chance of showers through daybreak for far southeast Missouri and the southern Purchase area in western Kentucky, basically south of Cape Girardeau and Paducah east to the Lakes. The period from daybreak through Tuesday morning should be dry as a mid level ridge builds east from the Plains and surface high pressure slides southeast from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. As the high shifts east of the area, a developing warm advection pattern will result in the return of warmer temperatures and higher humidity heading into mid week. Models continue to indicate the potential for showers as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening as isentropic upglide ensues beneath an initial perturbation streaming east from the Plains. Best chance during this time is in southeast Missouri, with smaller chances further east. An upper low progged over the northern Baja Peninsula early Tuesday will pivot east into the Central Plains by Wednesday and become vertically stacked with its surface low reflection by Wednesday evening. The system is forecast to move northeast towards the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across the forecast area on Thursday. As this occurs, increasing moisture and forcing for ascent will result in a period of showers closely tied to the passage of a prefrontal trough Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Will continue to carry a slight thunder chance across the western half of the area Wednesday afternoon, the entire region Wednesday evening, and eastern portions of the area after midnight Wednesday night with a persistent signal for marginal elevated instability in the NAM/GFS/ECMWF. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible, with storm total QPF forecast to range from around a half inch along the I-64 corridor to as much as 1 to 1.5 inches across southern portions of Missouri and Kentucky. At this time, any minor flooding issues are expected to be localized to areas where elevated river levels have kept soil conditions saturated. Also of interest Wednesday is the potential for strong gradient winds. The current model blended forecast continues to indicate wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. This appears to be just below advisory criteria at this time, but will monitor as the period in question draws closer. A warming trend is anticipated through mid week. Highs are forecast to rise from the lower half of the 50s today into the upper half of the 50s Tuesday, then surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. Lows should rise from the 30s tonight into the 40s Tuesday night and 50s by Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019 Despite a pattern shift expected, forecast confidence is high. As a deep storm system lifts from the Upper Midwest Thursday into the Great Lakes Thursday night, a pattern shift will begin. The persistent upper-level troughing over the southwest will be replaced by a high amplitude ridge along the West Coast, and broad troughing will eventually develop east of the Rockies by next Monday. A few showers may linger over the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky through the day Thursday, as the storm system drags its heels a bit. A strong dry slot will overspread the remainder of the area Thursday, resulting in very strong and deep mixing, possibly up to 8000' or 750mb. The 00Z GFS soundings have 60kt southwesterly winds in the middle of the mixed layer with 70-80kts at the top of the layer. If we can mix down 50+kts we would need a High Wind Watch/Warning. A Wind Advisory is a virtual slam dunk for most of the area. For now we have gusts 40 to 47kts over most of the area, so we will not be issuing a Watch, but this may be a conservative estimate, especially across southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana. In addition to the strong winds, temperatures will climb well into the 70s and some lower 80s are not out of the question. This will lead to fairly low relative humidity, and very strong drying conditions. Despite the heavy rain expected Wednesday night, fire weather will be a concern Thursday. Beyond Thursday, quiet and cool conditions are expected, with surface high pressure influencing the region through the weekend and into next week. After the warm air Thursday, temperatures will drop well below normal with highs only in the 40s Friday and Saturday. A slight warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday, but we will still be around 5 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION... Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through the planning period with mid and high clouds and no visibility restrictions. A few showers or sprinkles are possible through mid morning, mainly at KCGI/KPAH. As high pressure moves overhead, light NNE winds today will become easterly by late tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...RyanP SHORT TERM...RyanP LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...RyanP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-121000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. Refer to river Flood Warnings and Statements for the latest on the river flooding across the region. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast across all or part of the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. While a period of heavy rainfall is possible, any flooding should remain localized. Severe storms are not expected at this time. Southerly winds will gust as high as 30 to 40 mph over most of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. By Thursday, very strong southwest winds will gust 45 to 55 mph. These winds could lead to uprooted trees and very difficult driving and boating conditions. When combined with the expected low relative humidity, an elevated fire danger may develop. If the forecast wind gusts increase any at all, a High Wind Watch may become necessary. Flooding will continue on several rivers and their tributaries. Refer to the latest Flood Warnings and Statements for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. RJP/DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding redeveloped on the White River. Bottomland fields and woods were flooded. Numerous local roads near the river were underwater.
Minor flooding redeveloped on the White River. Most low bottomlands were flooded. Some river cabins were affected. Several rural roads along the river outside of levee protection were flooded. Oil fields were flooded. Flood gates were installed at Hazleton. Flood waters covered the Hazleton softball field.
Minor flooding redeveloped on the Ohio River. Areas of low-lying farm fields and woodlands were underwater. A few rural county roads were affected. Planting season was not yet underway for most crops.
Minor flooding redeveloped on the Wabash River. Low-lying woods and fields and some rural county roads were under water. Crop damage was minimal since planting season was not underway.
Minor flooding redeveloped on the Wabash River. Low-lying woods and fields were underwater. A few local river roads were closed by high water. All oil field production ceased with the exception of pumping units on substructures, which were accessible by boat only. Agricultural losses were minor since crop season was not in progress.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, March 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 807240, 807234, 807229, 807232, 807230.