Following the rain and thunderstorms on October 1st, streams rose out of their banks in Carroll County, Illinois. Several roads were closed due to this flooding the day after the rains fell.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
Following the rain and thunderstorms on October 1st, streams rose out of their banks in Carroll County, Illinois. Several roads were closed due to this flooding the day after the rains fell.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 5:29 AM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 629 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The strong cold front still has not made it's way south of the Highway 20 corridor as of 2 AM. Low pressure is riding up along the boundary, and with that, strong convergence just ahead of it is combining with the high PWAT values to create heavy stratiform rains in our far northern CWA. The flash flood watch will continue until the rain in the north ends early this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Today is just about as challenging as yesterday's forecast! Low pressure moving to southern Wisconsin should allow the cold front and it's low clouds to move south between 3 AM and 9 AM today. This timing is a bit later than anticipated, and makes highs today challenging today, as we're still in the mid to upper 70s in the warm sector, and the cold side of the front seems stuck in the 50s with a chilly wind to boot. This challenging forecast isn't just temperatures, as there is another wave riding along the front today, and the latest model guidance including the ECMWF, GEM, and NAM move this wave's forcing right over the CWA again this afternoon and tonight. This appears to be a stratiform rain event, as CAPE is less available, though close enough to the warm sector, some thunder is likely in the south with this event. I am banking on extensive cloud cover to keep the instability in check that this remains mainly a stratiform event, with embedded thunder. We do still have access to rather high PWAT through tonight, so heavy rains cannot be ruled out. I am not overly confident on placement for a watch tonight, as the north is very susceptible, but the south it a more likely location for heavy rain if it happens. Temperatures today should be flat, with not sun and no waa today to warm up in the Fall, that's not a rare forecast. Tonight, with clouds in place and rain, we will be tied to the dewpoint, which should allow for lows in the lower 50s west to upper 50s east. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Thursday and Friday... Little in the way of any sensible weather impacts are expected across the region during this period. Any leftover rain showers associated with the passing front will exit the area by early morning Thursday, with clouds expected to decrease in coverage by the late afternoon and evening. Northwest winds and high presssure will bring a pleasant, more seasonable air mass across the area, with daytime temperatures in the upper 50/low 60s and night time lows in the 40s/near 50 expected. Late Friday Night through Saturday Night... Guidance continues to remain consistent on a system impacting the area during this period. Behind the departing high pressure, low-level WAA will be increasing across the area ahead of a surface low pressure and cold front, which is progged along the Missouri River by 12z Saturday. Decent moisture transport will take place ahead of the front with the aid of 850mb winds around 35-40 kts, which will be advecting PWATs around 1.50-1.70 inches across the area. Therefore, another round of heavy rain does remain a possibility for this period. The threat for severe weather at this juncture is low, as guidance does not advertise any decent instability (especially with surface temps in the 60s) or favorable lapse rates. However, some guidance such as the GFS do show low values of MLCAPE entering southeast Iowa, west central Illinois and northeast Missouri Saturday afternoon. With this in mind, can't rule out the threat of a thunderstorm with the frontal passage. Sunday on... Model blends continue to favor dry and cool weather for early next week, as broad high pressure follows behind the front. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for the middle of October. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning) ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The heavy rains have ended, at least for now. Low pressure is over northern Illinois, with a cold front moving through southeast Iowa and northwest Illinois at 12Z. As we've discussed extensively, there is very low stratus around 300 to 500 ft found on the cold side of the front, along with some patchy drizzle and light rain. Winds will be strongest today in the first hour or two this morning as the low moves away. The tightly packed low, means winds will be northeast at DBQ and southwest at MLI at 12Z, but this will generally become north to northeast today. Another widespread rain may move into locations south of Highway 30 today and tonight, with low cigs in all locations and rain at MLI and BRL, and possibly at CID. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Heavy rain will fall across the region over the next 48 hours so new rises are expected on several area rivers. Moisture is now streaming into Iowa out of the southwest, with precipitable water values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches. This moisture and deep warm cloud depths will promote efficient rain producers for any showers and storms into tonight. There is a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall (flash flooding) mainly for the Iowa counties into northwest Illinois where the axis of heaviest rainfall is expected by Wednesday morning where amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, while amounts of 3 to 4 or more inches will be possible. The flash flood watch continues for portions of the area due to the heavy rain potential. This rainfall will produce rises on area rivers, primarily impacting rivers across Iowa and the Pecatonica and Rock Rivers. While rises will occur, confidence is not high on extent of the rises due to having some uncertainty still as to what basins will be hit with the heaviest rains. This morning's river forecasts used rainfall through Thursday morning so they do encompass the full amount of rain in the forecast through this event. This forecast rainfall did produce rises to or above flood stage for portions of the Maquoketa, English, Wapsipinicon, and North Skunk Rivers with in bank rises on all others in Iowa. In Illinois, this rainfall will likely produce additional rises on the Pecatonica and Rock rivers, which will extend the period of flooding expected. Moving to the Mississippi, the axis of the heaviest forecast rainfall shifted slightly to the south over the past 24 hours so there remains considerable uncertainty if areas from Dubuque to Le Claire will reach flood stage. Forecasts did lower slightly from yesterday but continued the watches at this time. Going downstream, while confidence is not high in eventual crests, have enough confidence that flood stage will be reached from the Quad Cities through Lock & Dam 17 at New Boston so upgraded those watches to warnings. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Ervin SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Speck AVIATION...Ervin HYDROLOGY...Brooks
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-030815- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll- Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson- Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark- 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Rain and a few thunderstorms are possible again today, with another round of rain tonight. The rain could be heavy at times, mainly south of Interstate 80. A strong storm with gusty winds is possible in the far southern areas, near northeast Missouri during the afternoon hours. Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms is expected Saturday. The threat for severe weather appears low at this time, but rainfall could be heavy in some locations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today and tonight.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
818 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN DUBUQUE REGIONAL ARPT 42.40N 90.70W
10/02/2019 M3.46 INCH DUBUQUE IA ASOS
24 HR TOTAL. ASOS STATION KDBQ DUBUQUE ARPT.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
819 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0818 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S MC CONNELL 42.40N 89.74W
10/02/2019 E2.46 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0817 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE STONE CITY 42.14N 91.33W
10/02/2019 E2.60 INCH JONES IA TRAINED SPOTTER
STILL DRIZZLING OUT THERE.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
828 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW WINNESHIEK 42.32N 89.57W
10/02/2019 M2.25 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W WOODBINE 42.35N 90.19W
10/02/2019 M2.16 INCH JO DAVIESS IL TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HR TOTAL.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N STOCKTON 42.40N 90.00W
10/02/2019 M2.72 INCH JO DAVIESS IL CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HR TOTAL.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SE GALENA 42.40N 90.39W
10/02/2019 M2.16 INCH JO DAVIESS IL CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HR TOTAL.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
841 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE BUCK CREEK 42.30N 91.34W
10/02/2019 M4.16 INCH DELAWARE IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-DW-6 HOPKINTON 5.4 WSW.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S BELLE PLAINE 41.88N 92.28W
10/02/2019 M3.74 INCH BENTON IA CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BLLI4 BELLE PLAINE.
0715 AM HEAVY RAIN WAUPETON 42.67N 90.88W
10/02/2019 M3.68 INCH DUBUQUE IA MESONET
MESONET STATION WPNI4 WAUPETON.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N MANCHESTER 42.50N 91.46W
10/02/2019 M3.68 INCH DELAWARE IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-DW-9 MANCHESTER 1.1 N.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.91W
10/02/2019 M3.65 INCH BUCHANAN IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-BC-8 INDEPENDENCE 0.9
WNW.
0753 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E DUBUQUE REGIONAL AR 42.40N 90.70W
10/02/2019 M3.47 INCH DUBUQUE IA ASOS
ASOS STATION KDBQ DUBUQUE ARPT.
0730 AM HEAVY RAIN INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.90W
10/02/2019 M3.40 INCH BUCHANAN IA MESONET
MESONET STATION IDPI4 INDEPENDENCE.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N INDEPENDENCE 42.48N 91.89W
10/02/2019 M3.36 INCH BUCHANAN IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-BC-7 INDEPENDENCE 1.2 N.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN ASBURY 42.51N 90.77W
10/02/2019 M3.29 INCH DUBUQUE IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-DB-20 ASBURY 0.4 SW.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE LAFAYETTE 42.20N 91.65W
10/02/2019 M3.26 INCH LINN IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-LN-7 CENTRAL CITY 6.7 W.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW JULIEN 42.44N 90.79W
10/02/2019 M3.24 INCH DUBUQUE IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-DB-16 PEOSTA 2.9 E.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CASCADE 42.30N 91.00W
10/02/2019 M3.24 INCH DUBUQUE IA CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CASI4 CASCADE.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N CENTER GROVE 42.50N 90.72W
10/02/2019 M2.92 INCH DUBUQUE IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-DB-19 DUBUQUE 1.4 WSW.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE DUBUQUE 42.52N 90.65W
10/02/2019 M2.86 INCH DUBUQUE IA MESONET
MESONET STATION DLDI4 1.8 NW EAST DUBUQUE.
0645 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E DUBUQUE 42.50N 90.65W
10/02/2019 M2.80 INCH DUBUQUE IA MESONET
MESONET STATION DBQI4 NO.2-RIVER.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW BELLE PLAINE 41.87N 92.28W
10/02/2019 M2.79 INCH BENTON IA MESONET
MESONET STATION BPLI4 IOWA RIVER.
0715 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW MONTICELLO MUNICI 42.24N 91.17W
10/02/2019 M2.75 INCH JONES IA CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MCLI4 MONTICELLO.
0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE VINTON MEMORIAL AI 42.22N 92.02W
10/02/2019 M2.60 INCH BENTON IA AWOS
AWOS STATION KVTI VINTON ARPT.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE MC CONNELL 42.47N 89.72W
10/02/2019 M2.53 INCH STEPHENSON IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-SP-8 WINSLOW 4.3 ESE.
0707 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW MARION 42.04N 91.63W
10/02/2019 M2.51 INCH LINN IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-LN-41 CEDAR RAPIDS 5.2
NNE.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN GORDONS FERRY 42.38N 90.49W
10/02/2019 M2.46 INCH DUBUQUE IA MESONET
MESONET STATION NVRI4 GORDONS FERRY.
0645 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE PALO 42.07N 91.78W
10/02/2019 M2.35 INCH LINN IA MESONET
MESONET STATION PLOI4 0.7 NE PALO.
0735 AM HEAVY RAIN RIDOTT 42.30N 89.48W
10/02/2019 M2.23 INCH STEPHENSON IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-SP-21 RIDOTT 0.1 NE.
0650 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW FREEPORT 42.30N 89.66W
10/02/2019 M2.20 INCH STEPHENSON IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-SP-25 FREEPORT 1.7 NW.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW FREEPORT 42.31N 89.66W
10/02/2019 M2.18 INCH STEPHENSON IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-SP-6 FREEPORT 2.0 NW.
0740 AM HEAVY RAIN BELLEVUE 42.26N 90.42W
10/02/2019 M2.18 INCH JACKSON IA MESONET
MESONET STATION BLVI4 BELLEVUE.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE FREEPORT 42.28N 89.60W
10/02/2019 M2.04 INCH STEPHENSON IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-SP-14 FREEPORT 1.7 ESE.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 N MARENGO 41.85N 92.06W
10/02/2019 M2.02 INCH IOWA IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-IA-18 MARENGO 3.6 N.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE ATKINS 41.96N 91.84W
10/02/2019 M2.00 INCH BENTON IA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IA-BT-12 FAIRFAX 4.0 NW.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
903 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0902 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW MONTICELLO 42.25N 91.20W
10/02/2019 M3.50 INCH JONES IA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
DCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
932 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0835 PM TSTM WND DMG GALENA 42.42N 90.43W
10/01/2019 JO DAVIESS IL BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORT OF NUMEROUS BRANCHES DOWN ALONG WITH
A MAPLE TREE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
ARGThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several roads were impassable, including the Spur Road, north of Mt Carroll, and the Old Galena Trail Road, due to stream flooding and flooding on the Plum River. Other roads were also impacted.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, October 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 860669.