Idaho, 2019Avalanche in Idaho, January 25, 2019
January 25, 2019 · NWS PIH · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A snow mobiler died in an avalanche that occurred around 6 pm on the 25th near Palisades Lake in Bonneville County near the Wyoming border. A 35 year old male died din the avalanche that occurred near Palisades Lake.
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- Deaths
- 1
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A snow mobiler died in an avalanche that occurred around 6 pm on the 25th near Palisades Lake in Bonneville County near the Wyoming border. A 35 year old male died din the avalanche that occurred near Palisades Lake.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 25, 2:57 PM MST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 25, 2:57 PM MST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
257 PM MST Fri Jan 25 2019
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night.
Snow is falling across our northeastern zones of the forecast
area. We're seeing visibilities under 1 mile at times from Island
Park through Driggs and near Pine Creek Pass. This is all evolving
according to the forecast inherited this morning as a shortwave
trough swings through northwest Wyoming. With a boost provided aloft
from the left exit region of an entering jet streak, we should see
a few inches of fresh snow from Island Park south along the
Wyoming border through tonight. Impacts will be limited to the
high terrain east of I-15, however, as there is a dearth of
moisture west.
Tonight, expecting some patchy fog to again develop through the
Snake Plain. We'll need to monitor closely for any potential
related headlines or SPSs.
Little change is then necessary to the forecast through the
weekend as our area remains in limbo between a ridge of high
pressure west and a seemingly ever-deepening low to our east. This
Sporadic waves and modest moisture could spell snow chances
through the weekend along and near the Yellowstone area, but
little to no chances elsewhere until the next organized wave
arrives Sunday evening.
TAX
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Next Friday.
A nearly stationary, longwave ridge will be parked just off the
Pacific coast as we kick off the new work week, with a nearly
stationary, longwave trough sitting to our east over the central and
eastern Continental USA. A north to northwest flow between these two
features will direct a bit of an active storm track across the
northern Plains, with our SE Idaho forecast area generally sitting
on the western periphery of this storm track. The pattern is going
to keep our weather low-impact Mon through Wed, although that
northerly flow will allow colder air to penetrate southward into our
region. High temperatures Mon and Tues will fall 7-10 degrees over
Sun (generally in the 20s), with morning lows Tues morning in
particular falling into the single digits. Readings of 0 to -10 are
likely in normally cold locales such as Stanley and the Copper
Basin, as well as across the Upper Snake Highlands and Teton Valley.
This will especially be the case if skies can predominantly clear,
which is currently indicated by our guidance blends. A few more
clouds may allow lows Wed morning to run just a few degrees warmer.
The only precip expected over the 3 days will be lingering snow
showers Mon morning from the central mntns to areas generally east
of I-15 with the shortwave trough moving through. Was a bit more
liberal with broadbrushing light PoPs this period (15-35%), before
rapidly tapering things down by lunch or early afternoon as the
shortwave axis departs to the SE. Additional accumulations of an
inch or less are expected Mon morning. While dry conditions are
expected Mon afternoon through Wed, some NW flow moisture MAY brush
light snow showers across the Island Park region Wed afternoon.
Confidence in this second bit of precip is low, but should be
light/low-impact regardless.
From Wed afternoon onward, our overall pattern will change. Long-
range models continue to consistently signal the long-wave pattern
will start to move, with the Pacific ridge tracking inland. Although
this should allow a gradual warming trend for the second half of the
week, that's where our forecast confidence ends. 12Z runs of the
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are all over the place, with the GFS
favoring a cleaner (drier) ridge advancing across the Rockies, and
the EC rolling a closed (although weakening) low inland across CA
and NV Thurs with much more precip. The Canadian seems to lean
toward the GFS solution, but both the EC and Canadian paint snow
showers across our eastern highlands Thurs night/Fri morning.
Massive placement differences are noted as well between the GFS/EC
for another potential system approaching by Sat morning. Generally
used a blend of the NBM with varying degrees of the GFS/EC for this
portion of the week, but broadbrushed everything out and capped PoPs
at about 35% or less considering the model uncertainty. Expect
forecast changes in the days ahead as hopefully the models converge
on a solution. - KSmith/TAX
&&
.AVIATION...
Ongoing snow activity at KDIJ should gradually wind down over the
next several hours. Our current TEMPO group ending at 23Z may need
to be extended a bit longer depending on how the radar trends, but
gradual improvement in the worst vsbys has begun. Low stratus is
again expected late tonight and Sat morning at KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ,
with very saturated near-surface conditions on NAM time-
heights/BUFKIT soundings and support from MOS guidance. MVFR
conditions are likely at KPIH, with IFR conditions possible at KIDA
and KDIJ with better fog potential at these terminals as well. Winds
look quite light which may also help support fog, similar to what we
saw earlier this morning if not a bit more coverage. KIDA may again
drop to near airfield minimums if fog indeed develops over the
terminal, and we currently are siding with that solution in the TAF.
KBYI and KSUN should generally remain VFR. Gradually improving
cigs/vsbys are expected late Sat morning/Sat afternoon. -
KSmith/TAX
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
Avalanche, Big Hole Mountains
- When
- January 25, 5:00 PM MST to 7:00 PM MST
- Where
- Big Hole Mountains forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 43.644, -111.494 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A snowmobiler died in an avalanche that occurred around 6 pm on the 25th near Palisades Lake in Bonneville County near the Wyoming border. A 35 year old male died din the avalanche that occurred near Palisades Lake.
- Avalanche
- A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Avalanche in Utah, January 25, 20191 death · 1 event
- Lake-Effect Snow in New York, January 25 to 26, 20198 events
- Dense Fog in California, January 25, 20194 events
- Extreme Cold in Minnesota, January 25, 20193 events
- Extreme Cold in Minnesota, January 25 to 26, 20193 events
- Winter Weather in South Dakota, January 25 to 27, 20191 event
- Winter Weather in Wyoming, January 25 to 27, 20191 event
- Winter Weather in Colorado, January 25 to 26, 20191 event
- Flood in Indiana, January 25, 2019$500 · 1 event
- Dense Fog in Idaho, January 25, 2019$5,000 · 1 event
- Flood in Ohio, January 25, 20191 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 802250.