Idaho, 2019

Avalanche in Idaho, February 15, 2019

February 15, 2019 · NWS PIH · 1 event in 1 county or zone

An avalanche two miles north of Ketchum nearly buried a house. It shattered all windows and made it inside the home.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$5,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PIH wrote it up.

An avalanche two miles north of Ketchum nearly buried a house. It shattered all windows and made it inside the home. No serious injuries occurred.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 5:03 AM MST, 7 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 5:03 AM MST, 7 hours 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
503 AM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday.
One last day of moderate-impact weather is expected today, before
things finally calm down for a few days across SE Idaho.

While a few rain and snow showers are crossing the region this
morning, radar shows a relative break in the precipitation this
morning, which is supported by high-resolution model guidance. By
late morning, one final round of precipitation is expected to
develop along and ahead of a second approaching cold front, which
will cross the region from west to east this afternoon and
evening. The various high-res and short-term models all support
this evolution, with just minor differences on exact timing and
placement of precip. Pushed PoPs into the 65-100% range this
afternoon as this activity works through, and used a blend of the
NBM and GFS for QPF. 850mb winds ahead of the front will be out of
the south, and while the trajectory isn't as ideal as what we saw
with the storm this past weekend, there may be some upslope
enhancement against the southern/eastern central mntns from mid-
morning through mid-afternoon, so we nudged QPF amounts slightly
higher in favored areas including the Wood River Valley. While
instability may be marginal, it should also be noted that model
projections are looking a bit convective along the front this
afternoon, so we can't rule out some brief, heavy snow showers or
squalls as the frontal precip pushes through. Overall forecast
confidence today is moderate to high, with how much upslope
enhancement may come into play making forecast snowfall amounts a
bit more conditional for places like the Wood River Valley and Big
Lost Valley.

Speaking of snowfall amounts, additional totals today and tonight
appear to be on the order of 3-6 inches from the Wood River Valley
across the western central mntns, and 3-5 inches from the Island
Park region into the Teton Valley, Big Hole Mountains, Caribou
Highlands, and Bear River Range (with localized higher amounts
above pass level in both cases). These amounts are barely
flirting with the low end of advisory criteria, and even
considering some impact factors such as breezy conditions
producing localized blowing/drifting snow and some of the heaviest
snow falling during the evening commute, felt it very hard to
justify continuing the Winter Storm Warning. Thus, we converted
all of the warning zones to Winter Weather Advisories and ran them
through 5 PM (the Beaverhead/Lemhi Highlands area was dropped).
It may not be out of the question that some of our eastern zones
may need to be extended a bit depending on the exact timing of the
front and how long precip lingers behind it, but will let
subsequent shifts monitor this and adjust as needed. Precip type
should be predominately snow across all advisory areas.

Finally, accumulations in the eastern Magic Valley, Snake Plain,
and western southern highlands are expected to range from a
coating to 2.5 inches with the frontal band today. We are
envisioning Special Weather Statements or even a short-fused
advisory MIGHT be needed later for these areas, especially if any
heavier snow showers or squalls develop along the front, but our
confidence is low at this time. Precipitation may start out as
rain, but should quickly change to snow due to a combination of
precip-induced adiabatic cooling and cooler air working in with
front itself.

Isolated to scattered snow showers may continue Sat and Sun,
especially in our mntns and highlands, as a low pressure center
passes to our SW and the regional flow remains moist and messy, but
amounts at this time look extremely light and low-impact.
Confidence on this activity is low, and didn't stray too far from
an NBM/GFS blend with some minor adjustments. - KSmith/TAX

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Next Friday.
A broad trough over the western CONUS will keep the potential of
some mountain snow showers Sunday night into Monday. The final
trough axis swings through during the day Monday, perhaps
spreading snow into the Snake Plain, but with moisture eroding
quickly impacts of this activity should be limited.

A break in precipitation chances is then expected as we transition
from one system to the next arriving Wednesday. Models are not
nearly in as much agreement as they were during previous runs with
how to evolve the Weds/Thurs system. The 00z GFS digs the next upper
low over us and drops it to our south, while the 00z EC cuts it off
well to our southwest, splitting the moisture around eastern Idaho.
With this in mind, will stick with the blend of models which remains
close to the middle of these solutions, in line with ensemble means.

After a cold start to the next week, temperatures will slowly
moderate through the latter half of the forecast. - TAX

&&

.AVIATION...
Precipitation activity is really waning across area ports this
morning. Satellite reveals a peeling back of the mid and upper-
level cloud shields with some spotty stratus lingering in their
wake. This will mainly impact DIJ and perhaps IDA for a few more
hours before dissipating further. Improved conditions should then
persist through midday with only spotty showers and isolated
restrictions before a cold front and another round of snow arrives
later this afternoon/evening. Impacts of this band of snow should
be limited to PIH/IDA/DIJ, but cannot rule out at least some
brief restrictions at BYI/SUN as well. Surface flow will once
again be breezy today with gust across the Snake Plain nearing
25kts. - TAX

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The greatest period of concern for flooding was the combination of
moderate rain falling on melting snow yesterday afternoon into
yesterday eve across the Flood Watch area. We have only received
a couple reports of minor flood issues, generally in low-lying
areas and where drains are clogged, with some elevated stream
flows as well. Although a few showers are out there, a relative
break is expected this morning (supported by current radar
trends), with the next round of precipitation either starting as
or quickly changing to snow along a cold front forecast to cross
the region this afternoon and evening. Progressively falling dew
points this morning may support this expectation of predominate
snow, although the day is young. Although temperatures remain near
or above freezing at this hour across portions of the eastern
Magic Valley, Snake Plain, and southern highlands, additional
snowmelt as modeled by NOHRSC guidance over the next 24 hours is
expected to be very minor, generally a few hundredths of an inch.
Thus, as the heaviest rain has ended, a break is expected this
morning, few impacts have been reported, and little additional
snowmelt is expected, we have gone ahead and cancelled the Flood
Watch. Some ponding of water in low-lying areas and where drains
are clogged may continue today. -KSmith/TAX

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for IDZ060-
062>066-071>075.

&&

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.

Avalanche, Sun Valley Region

When
February 15, 1:00 PM MST to 4:00 PM MST
Where
Sun Valley Region forecast zone
Property damage
$5,000
Reported by
Broadcast Media
Coordinates
43.826, -114.131 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

An avalanche two miles north of Ketchum nearly buried a house. It shattered all windows and made it inside the home. No serious injuries occurred.

What these are

Avalanche
A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Idaho in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Idaho, February 2019

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 810256.