Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Georgia, July 6 to 7, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
701 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

A scattering of MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue to impact TLH,
ABY, VLD over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon, with
the highest likelihood of impacting a terminal at ABY, TLH, and
VLD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [329 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Upper level ridging will continue to prevail locally this afternoon,
with a shortwave over the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley's.
A pocket of dry air aloft is noted between the upstream shortwave
and the Tri-State region where deep-layer moisture is bountiful.
Steering flow will remain weakly cyclonic across the northeast Gulf
Coast as a result of yesterday's convective activity, and we'll
continue to have a southeasterly wind component across the southeast
Big Bend, driving an early start to seabreeze convection. A little
further upstream as the boundary layer mixes, a sharp moisture
gradient is expected to be the continued focus for convection as
well as mesoscale boundaries from early afternoon seabreeze storms.
This set-up will result in the highest PoPs along and east of a line
from Panama City through Albany. West of this line, scattered storms
will still be possible, but a later start will mean warmer afternoon
high temperatures. Expect highs west of the aforementioned line to
climb into the middle and upper 90s. Heat indices are forecast to be
around 105 degrees for much of this area. Some pockets of heat
indices above 108 will be possible in the far western Panhandle and
portions of southeast Alabama, and a Heat Advisory has been issued
for these locations.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Precipitation coverage will be less compared to the past couple of
days, with confidence building in advisory level heat on Sunday.

A persistent low to mid-level trough will gradually move south-
east across the region. As this occurs, much lower precip chances
during the overnight away from coastal areas, around 20 to 25
percent. On Sunday and Monday, more seasonable chances of precip
around 40 to 50 percent, focused during the afternoon and evening
with showers and thunderstorms.

With less coverage of precip on Sunday, along with highs in the
mid-90s and dew points in the mid-70s, confidence is increasing
in advisory level heat, especially in the FL Panhandle counties.
This is supported by rather high exceedance values depicted in
CIPS Analogs and WPC Guidance.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Near normal precip coverage will increase by Wednesday, with
the potential for heavy rainfall late Wed into the weekend.
Heat index values near advisory level on Monday and Tuesday.

The main forecast challenge is the aforementioned trough of low
pressure as it moves southward over the Gulf of Mexico. The
extent of low pressure development, including the location of
this feature, remain highly uncertain. With anomalously high
atmospheric moisture, the signal is there for heavy rainfall over
the gulf, which may propagate into nearby coastal areas,
particularly where any surface trough is established. The time
frame for heavy rainfall would be as early Wednesday night into
the first half of the weekend.

Guidance also suggests we may flirt with advisory level heat
on Monday and Tuesday, but this may be limited by afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorm coverage. Low confidence.

.MARINE...

Winds generally 15 knots or less and seas up to 2 feet into
Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be above average
across the waters through the period, so plan on locally higher
winds and waves. Looking ahead to Wednesday night and beyond, an
area of low pressure may develop and lead to elevated winds and
waves to at least cautionary levels.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Precipitation coverage will be near seasonal levels through
Tuesday, then increase to above average by Wednesday, when
the potential for heavy rainfall increases. Heavier rainfall
amounts should favor the coastal areas and may spread inland
along a trough axis, but it's too early for more specifics.
The main impact will be localized, poor drainage flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  74  95  74  93 /  70  50  40  50  50
Panama City   90  79  90  79  90 /  40  20  30  40  50
Dothan        95  75  95  74  94 /  40  30  50  50  50
Albany        92  76  95  75  93 /  70  40  50  50  50
Valdosta      89  73  92  73  91 /  70  50  50  50  50
Cross City    88  75  90  76  90 /  50  50  60  40  70
Apalachicola  88  78  92  78  91 /  50  30  40  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Walton-Holmes-North Walton-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...LF