Heavy Rain in Florida, June 11, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday night)...

A front will remain nearly stationary across Se Ga into tonight
as a weak sf low forms along the front...under diffluence aloft...
and moves into south Ga tonight. Scattered showers/storms will
continue to develop across the area this afternoon as seabreezes
develop and merge near the east coast late this afternoon and evening.
Storms will be slow movers resulting in locally heavy rain.
The concern for Se Ga will be that convection there will be be
further enhanced by the added convergence of the stalled frontal
boundary and sfc low which is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches with possible localized amounts to 5 inches.
Fortunately most of that region has been dry and no flood watches
are anticipated at this time although localized flooding will be
a definite possibility.

On Wednesday an upper trough will begin to dig into the lower
Miss Valley which will lift the surface low Ne to across the
Carolinas by late in the evening which will also nudge the
front further Se to near the state border. This results in
continued high rain chances area wide as there will be enhanced
convergence from both the west coast seabreeze and the frontal
boundary. However SW winds will be increasing some as the low
lifts Ne so not quite as much rain expected although the WPC
has Se Ga under a marginal risk where additional rainfall amounts
there 1 to 2 inches possible. Any storms that manage to get going
will move offshore during the evening. Afternoon high temps held
to slightly below normal due to cloud cover.

.SHORT TERM (Thursday-Friday night)

The frontal boundary will move to south of the I-10 corridor
Thursday and be south of the region Friday. Drier air will
move into the area from north to south as high pressure
builds to the northwest and north. Scattered afternoon showers
and storms will be confined mainly south of the I-10 corridor
on Thursday and most areas dry Friday with the front south
of the area. Temps will trend to near normal.

.LONG TERM [Saturday-Tuesday]...

High pressure will be to the east Saturday into Saturday night,
then to the east Sunday into Tuesday. Moisture will increase
through this period, with mainly diurnal convective chances
increasing each day. Temperatures will trend near to slightly
above normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and storms will impact the TAF sites through
the afternoon and into the early evening hours with IFR
conditions in/around storms. Showers and storms are forecast to
dissipate across the area after midnight. Light southwest winds
overnight will increase to around 10 knots on Wednesday. Showers
and storms will get near the TAF sites again Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Southwest flow with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue to impact the coastal waters through
late Thursday as a weak cold front remains to the northwest. High
pressure will build north of the region which will push the front
across the waters Thursday night shifting the winds to the
northeast on Friday. Winds veer to the south southeast over
the weekend as high pressure moves to the Ne of the waters.

Rip Currents: Low risk expected Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  86  68  88 /  90  70  30  10
SSI  76  85  74  89 /  60  70  40  20
JAX  73  87  72  92 /  50  60  30  30
SGJ  73  87  73  88 /  40  60  20  30
GNV  72  86  71  89 /  40  70  20  40
OCF  72  86  72  88 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

PP/AK/NM