Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 11, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Forecast Highlight: Severe Thunderstorm Potential Increasing For
Tonight.

Tonight:
Synoptic pattern evolving quite closely to what had been depicted
the past 2 days. A STRONG upper-deck jet (100-120 KTS at 300MB)
extends from the Alberta/Saskatchewan border to the NW plains. As
the jet surges SE from the western Dakotas into primarily the
central third of KS as the night progresses, the N/S oriented
upper-deck trough would deepen considerably. Most of KS will be
positioned beneath the left-exit region of the approaching jet
which would enhance the deep-layer shear, both speed &
directional, along the deep-scale ascent. As the associated cold
weak cold front, which this afternoon extends from NE Nebraska to
SW KS, continues its SE push moisture advection would increase,
especially elevated as 850-MB theta-E advection ramps up
considerably. Even though temperatures are only 75-80F, the
markedly increasing 850-MB theta-E advection would operate in
tandem with these temperatures to induce sufficient
destabilizationand with strengthening deep- layer shear, severe
thunderstorms are anticipated. With steepening lapse rates, both
hail around 1-inch diameter and damaging 60-70 mph winds are still
anticipated. The large hail threat would occur early this evening
before transitioning into a damaging wind threat as this evening
progresses, although damaging winds would also be possible early
this evening. The rapidly strengthening mid-upper deck trof would
cause the cold front to accelerate later this evening. As such,
greatest thunderstorm potential would shift SE & by daybreak be
confined to SE KS.

Wed & Wed Night:
All thunderstorms should vacate SE KS around daybreak, but a weak
mid-level shortwave embedded in the continued fast NW regime may
find sufficient moisture to induce a few thunderstorms to develop
over far SE KS in the afternoon, but remainder of forecast area
would be mostly sunny as the strong NW regime would drive fairly
large high pressure into KS Wed afternoon & night.

Thu-Fri:
The dry period would be short-lived as a weak mid-level shortwave
is still scheduled to move into the Southern Plains Thu Afternoon
but should shear as it moves further into the Plains. This would
force the lower-deck ridge axis E of KS that would operate in
tandem with a deepening trof situated along the Front Range to
enable moisture to quickly return Thu Night. Pattern remains
progressive, so the period of thunderstorms should be confined to
southern KS Thu night & Fri morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

These periods are essentially unchanged as the projected pattern
likewise remains essentially unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front sinking
southward across the region for tonight. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible over central Kansas. Winds will switch to
the northwest behind the front and increase by late Wednesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  75  51  76 /  50  10   0   0
Hutchinson      57  74  50  75 /  50  10   0   0
Newton          57  73  50  75 /  60  10   0   0
ElDorado        57  73  50  76 /  60  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   58  76  51  76 /  50  10   0  10
Russell         55  73  49  75 /  30   0   0   0
Great Bend      55  74  49  74 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          57  73  49  78 /  50  10   0   0
McPherson       56  73  49  75 /  50  10   0   0
Coffeyville     59  76  51  78 /  60  20   0   0
Chanute         58  74  50  77 /  60  20   0   0
Iola            58  73  50  77 /  60  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    59  75  51  78 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
500 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-122200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
500 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of Central, South-Central
and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that may produce hail around 1
inch in diameter and 60 to 70 mph winds remain possible across
Central and South-Central Kansas. Both hail and damaging winds would
occur this evening with damaging winds the primary threat
thereafter, In Southeast Kansas, the strongest thunderstorms would
produce 40 to 50 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms remain possible in Southeast Kansas on Wednesday
but should be neither strong nor severe.

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible during most periods from
late Thursday night onward. The greatest thunderstorm potential
should occur Friday night, especially in Central Kansas, and for
Southeast Kansas early next week.

The strongest thunderstorms may produce penny-sized hail and 40 to
50 mph gusts, but thunderstorms that occur in Central Kansas Friday
night may approach severity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

KSZ032-120015-
Russell KS-
650 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Russell County in central Kansas...

* Until 715 PM CDT.

* At 648 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles
  northwest of Luray to near Emmeram...and moving southeast at 20
  mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Russell, Lucas, Gorham, Luray, Dorrance, Milberger, Bunker Hill,
  Paradise, Waldo, Wilson State Park, Wilson Lake and Russell
  Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9904 3913 9892 3913 9848 3870 9849
      3870 9897 3878 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 301DEG 18KT 3919 9875 3895 9905

MCGUIRE