Onshore flow, increasing swells, and rough surf brought hazardous marine and beach conditions to South Florida Atlantic coast beaches. At a beach in Miami, a seven people were rescued by lifeguards.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Onshore flow, increasing swells, and rough surf brought hazardous marine and beach conditions to South Florida Atlantic coast beaches. At a beach in Miami, a seven people were rescued by lifeguards.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 25, 12:36 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1236 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2019
.Aviation...
Improving conditions at most sites though a shield of clouds
lingers along the Gulf coast and over South Dade affecting APF and
TMB with sub-VFR cigs. MVFR is possible with isolated showers this
afternoon, mainly at MIA/TMB/OPF. Atlantic showers remain possible
through the period which could bring brief bouts of sub-VFR to the
Atlantic terminals overnight. Gusty 20-25 kt winds are possible
this afternoon and again on Thursday.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 1001 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019/
Update...
The morning fog and mist is starting to diminish as diurnal
heating and a wind shift out of the northeast allow for some break
in the deck of low clouds late this morning. As the cloud deck
erodes, temperatures will begin to rise towards the mid to upper
70s across most of the area. Forecast is on track with only
minimal tweaks made to account for this morning's fog/mist and the
revised hourly temperatures now that the sun is starting to peek
through some breaks in the clouds. Updated zones were transmitted
earlier to add mention of areas of fog and newly updated zones
were just transmitted to remove that mention and provide the
outlook into the afternoon. Have a Merry Christmas!
Prev Discussion... /issued 306 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019/
Short Term...
Christmas Day and Christmas Night :
Dry weather thus far early this Christmas morning giving Santa and
his reindeer no problem navigating over South Florida. Good thing
Rudolph has that bright red nose of his because it has been cloudy
across the east coast metro and Lake region due to wraparound
moisture associated with an occluded low pressure system over the
western Atlantic waters (the same low pressure system that sliced
through South Florida this past weekend). This system continues to
keep a relatively tightened pressure gradient across the area,
keeping breezy winds around early this morning. Portions of Collier,
Glades, and Hendry County may see some fog early this morning,
though confidence is too low to include in grids at this time.
Models, like SREF, are certainly hinting at fog near the west coast
and portions of the interior, however this could be low overcast
decks being picked up. Winds decoupled a lot more in the
aforementioned regions so will have to monitor closely in case a
short fused Fog Advisory or NOW is issued.
As the previously mentioned low pressure system continues eastward,
winds will veer from the NW to a more NE direction while high
pressure builds in. Consequently, the pressure gradient remains
tightened keeping winds breezy throughout the day. This wind shift
will allow for minor quantities of residual moisture over the
Atlantic waters to advect across eastern portions of South Florida,
moreso the east coast metro area. Furthermore, GOES-16 water vapor
imagery (low, mid, and upper levels) shows an abundance of dry air
over the region. In turn, low-topped shallow showers will be
possible across the Atlantic coastline today and kept PoPs at 15
percent to represent that. Any showers that do develop will be
short-lived and fast moving due to 20-30 kt low-mid level flow along
with the presence of dry air.
Christmas night will have an increase in PoPs across the east coast
and the Atlantic waters has a weak upper-level shortwave passes
through. Nothing too significant, just isolated rain showers at
best. The pressure gradient also begins to relax overnight,
decreasing winds in the process.
Temperatures this Christmas day remain unseasonal at about 2-3
degrees above average (in the upper 70s) with low temps Thursday
morning at 9-11 degrees above average (in the upper 60s to low
70s).
Long Term...
A strong 500mb ridge sits over the eastern US for the end of the
week. However, it does begin to break down on Friday as a
vigorous 500mb trough digs into the SW US, and progresses
eastward. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure sits to the
north of the region on Thursday, sliding to the east, over the
Western Atlantic by Friday. This should bring increasing moisture
and chances of showers Thursday night into the weekend, with
thunderstorms possible from early Saturday morning through
Saturday evening, mainly over the Atlantic waters, and the east
coast of South Florida.
Over the weekend, the 500mb trough slowly progresses eastward, and
an associated surface low develops over the plains on Saturday,
and moves towards the great lakes region by Sunday. This low has a
cold front that extends well to the south, towards the south Texas
coast by Sunday afternoon. As this front moves east, the high over
the Atlantic gets pushed east as well. This should cause the flow
to become more southeasterly on Saturday and southerly on Sunday.
This southerly component will bring a potential, albeit small at
this time, for heavy rain over the east coast of South Florida
this weekend, into Monday, when the front should move across the
area. However, there is a large discrepancy between the GFS and
the ECMWF on what the trough does. The GFS has the trough moving
through as a dry front, and clearing South Florida Monday night,
where the ECMWF stalls the front in the Lake region, and pushes it
back north by Tuesday. Given the uncertainty at this time, kept
the PoPs on the low side for the weekend.
Either way, the models have high pressure building in for Tuesday,
into Wednesday, bringing quieter weather to the area for the
middle of next week. Currently, models are not indicating any
significant cool down with the frontal passage. however, this may
change as the model solutions come into better agreement.
Marine...
For the Atlantic waters, hazardous winds/seas will continue today as
increasing swell builds southward and breezy winds continue. As a
result, the Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters continues
through at least Thursday evening. Isolated to scattered showers
with locally gusty winds will be possible over the waters, with
increasing coverage of this activity expected by the end of this
week.
Beach Forecast...
For the Atlantic beaches, increasing onshore flow is expected to
support elevated rip-current potential from late this week into this
weekend. In fact, a High Risk of rip currents is now in effect for
the Palm Beaches due to breezy NE winds and the influence of
building N-NE swell. For Broward and Miami-Dade beaches, a Moderate
Risk of rip currents is in effect for today.
Furthermore, this swell will be accompanied by elevated surf heights
later today into Thursday for the Atlantic coastal waters.
Therefore, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for the waters off Palm
Beach County early this afternoon through Thursday morning.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach 68 79 69 78 / 20 20 30 30
Fort Lauderdale 70 79 71 78 / 20 20 30 40
Miami 68 79 70 78 / 20 20 30 30
Naples 64 80 66 79 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...None.
&&
Aviation...02/RAGHazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 1125 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 260430- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 1125 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 ...Elevated Risk of Rip Currents along the Atlantic Beaches today... ...Rough marine conditions continue for the Atlantic waters... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT Rip currents: There is a High Risk of rip currents along the Palm Beaches today with a Moderate Risk of rip currents along Broward and Miami-Dade beaches. Wind: Wind speeds around 20 knots with higher gusts remain possible over the Atlantic waters, especially for waters well off the coast. Coastal flooding: A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Palm Beach County. Coastal flooding is possible due to increased surf. Waves: A risk of waves of 6 to 10 feet, with locally higher waves near the Gulf Stream, across the Atlantic waters today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY For the Atlantic beaches, the rip-current potential will be elevated through the remainder of this week and this weekend, owing to the combination of swells building southward and increasing onshore flow. For the Atlantic waters, hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist into at least late this week. This will be the result of southward-building swells that are expected to bring seas of 7 to 10 feet, with locally higher seas over the Gulf Stream. Additionally, breezy northeast to east winds could occasionally reach around 20 knots through late this week over the Atlantic waters. For the upcoming weekend, there will be increased potential for showers to affect South Florida, especially for the east coast metro areas and vicinity. While highly uncertain, this activity could be accompanied by locally heavy rainfall over the Atlantic coast and vicinity. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami. RAG
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Lifeguards rescued 7 swimmers caught in a rip current at Miami Beach around 0137 PM EST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, December 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 866673.