During the afternoon of July 2, 2019, heavy rain developed near San Luis, CO and slowly moved towards the Spring burn scar. 5 inches of rain fell within an hour across the center portion of the burn scar.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
During the afternoon of July 2, 2019, heavy rain developed near San Luis, CO and slowly moved towards the Spring burn scar. Radar estimates 1 to 1.5 inches of rain fell within an hour across the center portion of the burn scar. Debris flows and mudslides were reported by the Huerfano County Emergency Manager.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 10:44 AM MST, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1144 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 359 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Similar to yesterday, there is an upper level low over the Pacific Northwest and a ridge of high pressure located over the southern Arizona and New Mexico border. The upper level pattern will create southwesterly flow from the Pacific Ocean towards southern Colorado. The added moisture in the atmosphere from the Pacific Ocean, upslope flow over the mountains, and a passing shortwave trough (currently located over the Great Basin), will spark thunderstorms during the late morning to early afternoon hours over the mountains. The steering flow aloft is weak, therefore thunderstorms will move slowly. Slow thunderstorm propagation speeds mean that there is a risk for flash flooding over areas with saturated soils and over burn scars. The mountain top CAPE values range from 500 to 800 J/kg, so some strong thunderstorms with small hail and heavy rainfall rates are likely. Now shifting focus towards over the plains and the mountain valleys. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over the San Luis Valley in the afternoon, but CAPE values are low (around 200-400 J/kg) and there is a cap that will inhibit thunderstorm development. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated over the upper Arkansas River Valley. The thunderstorms that develop over the eastern mountains will propagate across the plains during the afternoon, similar to what occurred yesterday. CAPE values range from 1000 to 1500 J/kg, but the bulk wind shear values are <20 kts, so the main risks will be small hail and the potential for wind gusts around 60 mph. Some lingering showers will remain over the far eastern plains during the evening hours, but should dissipate shortly after midnight. The upper Arkansas River Valley river gauges indicate that high river flows continue due to snow melt runoff. Salida and Wellsville are still in Action Stage. Parkdale, Canon City, Portland, and Nepesta are in the lower Arkansas River Valley are in Action Stage as well, but Avondale is in Flood Stage and La Junta is forecast to reach Flood Stage. The Rio Grande at Alamosa continues to flow at Action Stage. High temperatures are forecast to be below average due to cloud cover and thunderstorms outflow boundaries. Expect high temperatures to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s over the plains, upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountain valleys, and in the 50s to 70s over the mountains. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s over the plains, 40s over the mountain valleys, and 30s to 40s over the mountains. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 359 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Wed and Thu an upper level trof will be over the western U.S., with an upper ridge centered to the south of Colorado. There will be limited moisture over the area on Wed and thus chance for showers/tstms will be somewhat limited, although isolated to scattered activity will be possible, mainly over the mtns and high valleys, and over the Palmer Divide region and the Raton Ridge. Temps on Wed will be warmer, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s over the plains, and in the lower and mid 80s in the high valleys. Chances for precip on Thu look even lower, with possibly just some isolated showers or storms over the eastern mtns and the Palmer Divide. Highs will be in the 90s across the plains, and in the lower and mid 80s in the high valleys. Thu night, a disturbance will pass by CO to the north and will send a front through eastern CO early Fri. Later in the day Fri, another disturbance is expected to move acrs WY and northern CO. The GFS and EC show little in the way of precip over southern CO through Fri afternoon, but then for the evening hours, the GFS shows fairly good chances for precip over southeast CO, while the EC continues to be mostly dry. Fri still looks quite warm, with highs that are similar to or just slightly cooler than on Thu. For Sat through Mon, a plume of moisture is expected to be working its way into southern CO from the south, resulting in more available moisture for showers/tstms. A weak disturbance may move through the flow over northern CO on Sun, with another disturbance moving across CO on Mon. Chances for precip this weekend and into early next week look fairly high from about the I-25 corridor and westward. Sat, the southeast plains could see scattered or higher chances for precip, but it looks more isolated for Sun and Mon over the plains. High temps will be a little cooler Sat through Mon, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s over the plains, with upper 70s to lower 80s in the high valleys. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Prevailing VFR conditions at the TAF sites the next 24 hours, with VCTS at the terminals 20z-02z. Could again see some brief MVFR visibility and gusty outflow winds with any stronger storms. Convection diminishes this evening after sunset with clearing skies overnight. Less in the way of thunderstorm activity on Wednesday as air mass dries out. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...PETERSEN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1201 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 COZ058>089-093>099-031815- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1201 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon over the mountains, with storms pushing across interior valleys and onto the plains from mid-afternoon into the early evening hours. The main risk from storms today will be heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over areas with saturated soils and over the Spring, Junkins, and Hayden Pass burn scars. Some of the stronger storms today may also produce small hail, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. High river flows from snow melt runoff will continue, with much of the Arkansas River and the Rio Grande running near bankfull, and some minor flooding will be possible in the lower Arkansas Valley at Avondale and La Junta. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Thunderstorm chances are expected to decrease for Wednesday through Friday as drier air moves into the area. Thunderstorms will be more isolated in coverage, and will mostly be over the mountains and high valleys, and the Palmer Divide. The main storm risks will be lightning and wind gusts up to 50 mph Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase Saturday through Monday. In addition to the risks of lightning and gusty outflow winds, locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding concerns, especially over burn scars. Rivers and streams will continue to run high the next several days, due to run off from snow melt. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be possible over the mountains and the plains this afternoon and evening. 88/28
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pueblo CO 159 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 COZ081-082-084-085-022030- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO- Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Ft CO- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft CO- 159 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT... At 158 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Crystola, or 14 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 20 mph. Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Western Colorado Springs, Woodland Park, Air Force Academy, Manitou Springs, Green Mountain Falls, Pikes Peak, Crystola, Chipita Park and Cascade. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3895 10515 3908 10502 3896 10479 3877 10504 TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 309DEG 18KT 3896 10502 29
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pueblo CO 210 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 COZ084-022045- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft CO- 210 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MDT... At 209 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Black Forest, or 17 miles north of Colorado Springs, moving northeast at 10 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Monument, Black Forest and Gleneagle. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3897 10467 3906 10486 3913 10482 3913 10436 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 215DEG 9KT 3908 10472 29
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pueblo CO 252 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 COZ084-085-022115- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Ft CO- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft CO- 252 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM MDT... At 250 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking multiple strong thunderstorms over over northern El Paso County, moving east at 15 mph. Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Colorado Springs, Monument, Air Force Academy, Calhan, Black Forest, Ellicott, Peyton, Gleneagle, Falcon and Cimarron Hills. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3884 10488 3913 10486 3913 10426 3883 10424 TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 272DEG 15KT 3901 10475 29
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pueblo CO 253 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 COZ074-075-087-088-022130- Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO- Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO- 253 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT... At 253 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Spanish Peaks, or 14 miles southeast of Indian Creek on the southeastern Spring Brun Scar, moving northeast at 10 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Gulnare. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service office in Pueblo. && LAT...LON 3730 10488 3739 10495 3748 10482 3733 10471 TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 238DEG 8KT 3737 10487 MOORE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
255 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0254 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E MONUMENT 39.10N 104.81W
07/02/2019 M1.50 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES.
&&Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pueblo CO 259 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 COZ081-083-085-086-022130- Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Ft CO- Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Ft CO- 259 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL FREMONT... SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT... At 258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Penrose, or 22 miles south of Colorado Springs, moving east at 10 mph. Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Fountain, Penrose and Pueblo West. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3845 10501 3861 10500 3867 10468 3838 10469 TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 272DEG 10KT 3852 10492 29
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 137 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:03 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding and debris-mud flows, from Indian Creek, across portions of CR 421 in and just north of Sulphur Springs was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 846582.