NWS Denver/Boulder, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 29, 3:49 AM MST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 29, 3:49 AM MST, 1 hour 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
449 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2019
...Spring Storm to Bring Heavy Snow to the Mountains and
Foothills Later Today Through Tuesday...
A significant precipitation event is shaping up for a good part
of our area today through Tuesday. The first short wave trough to
impact our area is clearly evident in GOES-16 water vapor imagery,
currently over southern California. A second short wave trough
associated with the polar jet stream is across Idaho. Both storm
systems will impact Colorado today and tomorrow. There is still a
great deal of uncertainly about temperatures for this evening and
overnight into Tuesday morning, which will affect P-type and
snowfall amounts. Those details will be covered shortly.
The southern storm system will move into the Four Corners area by
Tuesday morning. As it does, it will advect rich moisture into the
state, with the standardized anomalies for water vapor transport
in the 3-5 standard deviations range, and precipitable water
values at 2.5 standard deviations. Synoptic scale lift increases
significantly after midnight tonight as the trough gets close,
and precipitation rates should also increase late this evening and
into the overnight hours tonight. Other sources of lift include a
120-130 kt polar jet streak to our north, putting northeast
Colorado in the right entrance region from late this evening
through sunrise Tuesday, then the jet swings to the south and
lifts northeast of us. There will also be a decent upslope
component this afternoon into Tuesday, especially for the Cheyenne
Ridge in Larimer and Weld Counties. Wind should be east-
southeast, advecting moisture-rich low-level air into the northern
foothills and along the terrain gradient of the Cheyenne Ridge.
The expected stronger precipitation rate, good upslope flow, and
this region is also most likely to see banded precipitation from
the jet: All signs point to more favorable ingredients for
accumulating snow, and thus have issued a winter weather advisory
for eastern Larimer/Western Weld County (CO-Zone 38) through 6 AM
Tuesday, in line with the CYS office to our north.
In the mountains, instability also looks very favorable for
moderate snow over a sustained period of time, especially when
combined with west-southwest upslope and high levels of moisture.
The winter storm warning looks on track for elevations above 6,000
feet in the eastern foothills, and the rest of the mountains on
the west slope, including the I-70 mountain corridor. Amounts
could exceed a foot by sunrise Tuesday, especially above 9,000
feet. Travel through the mountains from later this afternoon into
Tuesday morning could get challenging, plan ahead for winter
driving conditions.
Back to the plains. The significant forecast challenge lies in the
temperatures, not so much the QPF. Precipitation amounts look to
be around .2-.4 east of I-25 other than the Cheyenne Ridge near
the WY border. West of I-25 with strong upslope, 0.6-0.8 liquid
equivalent looks likely including Park County. Around an inch (or
more) is possible in eastern Larimer/W. Weld counties under the
advisory, especially if banded precip occurs. Latest model runs,
including those from the HRRR and WRF models (and the global
models) have been trending warmer for this evening and overnight.
Model guidance in general has highs in the mid to upper 40s for
much of the plains below 6,000 feet. We are not buying that
solution as good upslope and dynamic forcing, even in the face of
April 29th high sun angle, should keeps temperatures in the 30s.
Looking upstream across Wyoming and Montana, there are
temperatures right now in the 20s, so it's reasonable that
temperatures will stay in the 30s all day today. However, the
reason we are not as confidence in precipitation type and snow
accumulation in the lower elevations is the fact that the low-
level flow will be out of the east- southeast later today into
Tuesday morning, and the source region for the low-level flow is
not all that cold. Upslope will obviously help, but if
temperatures warm just a few more degrees this evening compared
to what we are currently forecasting, a good amount of the
precipitation would fall as rain, as the HRRR has been indicating
recently. Snowfall amounts south of Larimer/Weld Counties will be
greatest across the west Denver metro suburbs, especially above
5,500 feet, including Boulder, but given the warm ground
temperature and warm road temperatures we do not expect snow to
stick much or accumulate much (melting from underneath a concern),
just 1-4 inches on grass and most likely just wet roads. Take a
look at the 90th percentile snow graphics currently on our webpage,
which show 6-10 inches above 5,000 feet in Denver metro. That
scenario could occur if temperatures are 3-5 degrees cooler than
we have forecast, and QPF a little higher than we have currently
in the forecast. That scenario is however remote, most likely
will be Trace-2 inches below 5,500 feet, and 2-5" around the 6,000
foot level including Boulder, and much more above that elevation
in the winter storm warning areas.
In general impacts across metro Denver should be minimal and begin
once the snow rates pick up late this evening, perhaps a few
slick spots Tuesday morning if the temperatures cool to 30 or 31
degrees. Given the expected heavier snow across the Loveland/Fort
Collins metro area, travel impacts could be a bit greater, but
again not until after sunset this evening, continuing into the
Tuesday morning rush hour. Even there roads should be warm enough
for slushy conditions, hopefully not any significant icy regions.
Winds should also not be an issue in terms of blowing snow. Lift
from the southern short wave trough moves out around 6 AM Tuesday,
and not long after that most areas should be dry until the
northern system takes aim. Impacts from that system are next.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2019
Models still show a weakening upper trough to push across the CWA
on Tuesday. Then southwesterly flow aloft for Tuesday night. A
larger, mean trough moves into Colorado on Wednesday, Wednesday
night and into the extended period. There is some synoptic scale
lift progged Tuesday morning, then subsidence moves in Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Upward vertical velocity moves back in late
Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon, then downward motion
again on Wednesday night. Tuesday and Tuesday night, the low level
flow is mainly southeasterly. There is a cold front to move in
Wednesday with upslope winds behind it into the evening. Normal
drainage wind patterns are a good bet Wednesday night. There is
decent moisture in place for the CWA Tuesday through Wednesday. It
dries out somewhat Wednesday night. It is unstable late day
Tuesday, with some CAPE progged for much of the forecast area with
the exception of the northeastern quarter of the CWA. There is
less CAPE around on Wednesday. The QPF fields have limited
measurable precipitation for the CWA on Tuesday. Tuesday night
there is some over the mountains with a tad over the plains. There
are small amounts around on Wednesday morning, then more late day
Wednesday, especially over the southern half of the CWA. There is
nothing after 06Z Wednesday night. For pops, will keep "likely"s
going in the mountains Tuesday through Wednesday. For the plains,
20-40%s look good Tuesday through Wednesday evening. Temperature-
wise, Tuesday's highs are 2-5 C warmer than today's. Wednesday's
highs now look to be 0-4 C colder than Tuesday's readings. Models
differ somewhat on Wednesday's temperatures, The NAM is colder
than the GFS. For the later days. Thursday through Sunday, models
have a mean upper trough over western North America Thursday into
Friday. The CWA is at the bottom of the feature with zonal flow
aloft. There is some weak upper ridging over the CWA Saturday and
Sunday. It is pretty dry all four days. There could be some minor
late day convective through the period; mainly over the mountains.
Temperatures are close to normals Thursday and Friday, and a bit
above normals Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2019
MVFR conditions are expected into this evening as a spring storm
system takes aim on Colorado. Confidence in precipitation is high,
but confidence is fairly low on how much snow could fall at the
terminals. Temperatures will be above freezing much of this
afternoon and evening, dropping to right around 32 degrees by
midnight tonight. As a result, even as snow falls, it's not
likely to accumulate on the concrete surfaces much if at all.
Best chance for snow at the terminals is after 21Z at BJC, 22Z at
DEN and APA. There is a slim chance precipitation remains rain or
a rain/snow mix at DEN, but feel strong enough in snow chances to
include in the TAF. IFR conditions are expected in the snow,
especially late this evening and overnight. Snow should be
winding down between 6-9 AM Tuesday at the metro area terminals,
with CIGs and VIS improving to MVFR and probably even VFR by
midday Tuesday. In terms of winds, they should not be too much of
an issue in terms of speed, with 10-15 kts expected, generally
out of the northeast and east-northeast through late this evening.
A convergence line may set up near DEN after midnight, with light north
winds to the west at BJC, and southeast winds at APA and probably
DEN, perhaps 15-20 kts. This feature moves east with time,
shifting winds back to the north after 9 AM Tuesday, but
confidence in the timing and evolution of the surface convergence
zone is low at this time.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for
COZ038.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ037.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ030-031-
033>036.
&&
SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION.....Schlatter