Flood and Heavy Snow in California, March 27, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
330 AM PDT Wed Mar 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring showers into much of the Central
California Interior today into Thursday, especially over the
Sierra. Dry weather can be expected from Thursday night through
Sunday. Seasonable temperatures can be expected through Friday
before warming above normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winter storm continues to push through Northern California this
morning ahead of a cold front still over the Eastern Pacific. Once
the cold front pushes closer to Central California, the district
will begin observing increasing precipitation coverage as the
winter storm moves into the area. Current timing has the winter
storm environment entering Central California just before sunrise
this morning and spreading south across the Sierra Nevada during
the day. Therefore, confidence remains high on the possible winter
storm warning and advisory currently in effect for the Sierra
Nevada as almost 2 feet of new snow could accumulate over the
higher terrain in the next 24 hours. Furthermore, locally strong
winds could be observed across the region during frontal passage
this Wednesday.

Short range models continue to show higher confidence in the
strength and timing of this next storm as it hits the region.
With models showing most of the energy tracking toward Northern
California, will expect the storm to be a quick shot of
precipitation once the energy drops into Central California. Upper
air analysis is showing a good 100 knot jet driving into Northern
California this morning which is progged to shift south toward
the district during the day. At which time, significant
precipitation will shift south as well. Satellite precip-water
imagery is showing a good plume of moisture surging through the
area as observed on both upper-air observations of Oakland and
Vandenberg. With both locations showing precip-water at the higher
end of the spectrum, support exist of significant precipitation
accumulation today.

Lingering showers on Thursday under weak cyclonic flow will give
way to possible ridging on Friday as the district begin to dry out
again. Model then showing increasing confidence in developing a
ridge pattern by the end of the week and into the weekend. With at
least a few days of dry conditions under the ridge pattern, will
see a good warm-up of temperatures as values rise above seasonal
averages by Sunday and Monday. Yet, as with many warm-ups, this
will be short-lived as another disturbance approaches the West
Coast early next week. While models are having showing high
uncertainty in the location and trajectory of the next
disturbance, they at least indicate the presences of a possible
storm. Therefore, will maintain a mention of possible weather
toward the middle of next week as the wet weather continues into
the month of April.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR with local IFR conditions developing over the Sierra
Nevada with mountain obscuring IFR conditions becoming widespread
from north to south after 18z Wednesday. Areas of MVFR likely in the
Sierra foothills and north facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains
thereafter. Isolated thunderstorms are possible north of Kern County
from 18z Wednesday through 02z Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the Central CA Interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 AM PDT Thursday
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ097.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
THE CAZ096.

&&

public...Molina
avn/fw...DCH
synopsis...Molina

weather.gov/hanford