High Wind in California, January 1, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
813 PM PST Mon Dec 31 2018

...Updated Air Quality Section and for issuance of Hard
Freeze Watch in the San Joaquin Valley Tuesday night...

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will remain over Arizona through Tuesday
as a strong jet stream pushes to the south over the region. This
will the threat of locally strong winds over the Sierra and
foothills through early Tuesday. The low will move east later
Tuesday and Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure building over
California later in the week.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 144 PM PST Mon Dec 31 2018/

DISCUSSION...Big shot of morning Mono Winds over the Sierra and
Foothills this morning with local gusts to over 55 mph in the
Northfork area and many disease weakened trees falling in the Bass
Lake and Oakhurst areas. Winds have subsided this afternoon
however with low pressure setting in over Arizona...cold air
settling into the Great Basin and a strong jet stream moving
across the region tonight, Mono Winds will increase again this
evening over the Yosemite area as well as the Mariposa and Madera
County Foothill areas. Peak winds this evening could easily
surpass 50 mph in wind prone canyons and over ridges while other
areas will stay sheltered. The latest HRRR and NAM12 models show a
mid evening peak over Yosemite and then stronger winds targeting
areas farther south overnight and into early New Years Morning. By
later in the morning, models all diminish winds over the region as
the cold Arizona low and jet stream move east.

Temperatures on Wednesday morning will be rather cold over the
forecast area and lots of mid to upper 20s are possible in the SJV
with colder mountain and desert areas falling to as low as 10-15
degrees. A hard freeze watch or warning many need to be issued for
the SJV Tuesday night as even though it has been cold, this
airmass may be the coldest yet this season.

Models then are in good agreement in building a ridge of high
pressure over the region Wednesday through Friday before the next
Pacific storm system takes aim on Central and Southern California
this weekend. Latest projected track would target the Southern
Sierra and Kern County areas however the entire forecast area
could likely see some precipitation. Track means everything so it
will be interesting to see if the forecast models hold firm with
the projected trajectory or not. None the less, chances of rain
and snow remain in the forecast next weekend. Happy New Year!

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR conditions in mist for the San Joaquin
Valley through 18z Tuesday. Gusty easterly winds up to 50 knots over
the Sierra crest from Yosemite to Kings Canyon after 00z Tuesday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday January 1 2019... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday CAZ096.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday CAZ093.

Hard Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning CAZ089>092.

&&

public...Durfee
avn/fw...Andersen
prev discussion...Dudley
synopsis...Dudley

weather.gov/hanford