An incoming front brought high winds to portions of northern California.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to portions of northern California.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 7:32 PM PST, 5 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
732 PM PST Tue Feb 12 2019
.UPDATE...
An update has been made to the forecast to add a Winter Storm
Warning to the southern portion of the Shasta Valley from the
Weed Airport and Gazelle areas southward. A Winter Weather
Advisory was also added to the Highway 97 corridor for the Grass
Lake area northward. Each of these products is valid now through
10 AM PST Wednesday morning.
Additionally, a slight chance of freezing rain has been added to
most of the areas that are getting snow tonight for Wednesday
morning between 1 AM and 10 AM PST as warmer air glides over the
colder air that's along and near the surface.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Heavy snow from the Mount Shasta area is spilling over into the
southern Shasta Valley this evening and is expected to continue
overnight. The temperature at Weed Airport this afternoon reached
38 degrees, but has fallen to 31-32F, snow is falling and
accumulating, and winds are gusting 45 to 55 mph. This is
resulting in blowing snow. While not a sure bet, model guidance
suggests very little change in the temperature profile tonight
through 5 AM PST and heavy precipitation is expected to continue,
so expect impacts there to continue. In past similar events we've
seen temperatures cool further overnight with snow extending
further north with time, which is what we're expecting. Also,
warning level amounts are expected a few miles south of Hilt
northward onto Siskiyou Summit. 7 to 18 inches of snow is
expected in the warning area, with locally higher amounts
southwest of the town of Weed. Lighter amounts are expected in
the remainder of the Shasta Valley.
Along highway 97 northeast of there into the Grass Lake area a
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to address the
combination of snow and wind there over a wider area.
The HREF, as well as other model guidance, suggests warmer air
pushing in aloft tonight into Wednesday morning as colder air
remains along and near the surface. This will result in a slight
chance of freezing rain on Wednesday morning across much of the
area that's getting snow now. Past similar events suggest that
snow could get very wet overnight into the morning and freeze on
many surfaces resulting in tree and power line damage across the
area. BTL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM PST Tue Feb 12 2019/
SHORT TERM...A major winter storm is poised to impact Southern
Oregon and Northern California with heavy snow, strong winds, and
heavy rain. An Atmospheric River (AR) will reach the area
tonight. We are forecasting near-record 24-hour snowfall amounts
for Mount Shasta City tonight as 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall
rates are expected to occur. Interstate 5 travel will not only be
impacted by heavy snow in Mount Shasta City, but also at Siskiyou
Summit. We are particularly concerned about the potential for tree
fall due to this very heavy snow. The other heavy snowfall
locations through tomorrow include all the Cascades and Siskiyou
Mountains, portions of the East Side to include Highway 97 from
Modoc Point north to Crescent. Advisory snow amounts will impact
the rest of Northern California and areas east of the Cascades.
There are two aspects of the forecast that have considerable
uncertainty with them. First, there are enough data to support 1
to 3 inches of snow between 1500 and 2500 feet in Josephine and
Southern Douglas Counties. Heavy precipitation rates and near-
freezing temperature profiles in the low levels support snow
around Hayes Hill at Highway 199 and Sexton Pass/Canyon Mountain
Pass on Interstate 5 north of Grants Pass. We've issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for this overnight. The other, more nuanced
portion of the forecast is freezing rain potential. As warm air
pushes north Wednesday morning, valleys in California and higher
elevation areas in Southern Oregon (Cascades and portions of the
East Side mainly) could received freezing rain. We've added a
slight chance of this in the forecast for Wednesday morning.
We will monitor river levels and any flooding potential, but no
main stem rivers are expected to reach flooding stage from this
storm.
Snow levels creep up during the day Wednesday, so by afternoon,
gradually the impacts should diminish. Precipitation rates
decrease too. Another round of heavier precipitation is expected
to arrive Thursday, but snow levels should be higher than tonight,
so we expect less in the way of heavy snow impacts. We'll be
focused on this next event during the next several shifts.
LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...The extended period is
going to be relatively showery through much of the extended
forecast. The snow levels are expected to crash back down as a low
pressure system currently moving toward our area from Hawaii
pushes through our area. A second low pressure system will move
through the area which will continue to lower snow levels. Snow
levels on Friday will be around 1500 to 2500 feet, and will lower to
the valley floors, around 500 to 1000 feet, by Saturday night. The
showers will continue to decrease in coverage and intensity by the
time the snow levels lower to the valley floor, so it will really
depend on which occurs first. After that, high pressure will build
in over the area on Monday evening, which should provide a small
break in systems. -Schaaf
AVIATION...For the 13/00Z TAFs...From the Cascades west...Areas of
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in rain and snow along with gusty winds and
obscuration of higher terrain will all occur along the coast and
over the coastal waters through Tuesday night as a front approaches
and stalls nearby. Much of the same will occur over the inland west
side as well, although winds will trend weaker east of the Coast
Range. The exception will be the Rogue Valley, including KMFR, which
will see gusty south winds, but rain will hold off until later this
afternoon or evening. LLWS will also be an issue, affecting KOTH and
KRBG today, and KMFR today into this evening. Conditions will
slowly improve Wednesday.
East of the Cascades...Cigs will be mainly VFR with local MVFR, but
winds will be gusty at times. Snow and blowing snow will make for
areas of MVFR/IFR vsbys. Conditions will slowly improve Wednesday,
especially near valleys floors where the snow will be changing to
rain.
MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday 12 February 2019...A front will
move onshore this afternoon and evening, then a surface low will
move onshore near Brookings Wednesday night. South gales and very
steep seas will persist through this afternoon, but will be
diminishing from the northwest. Winds will shift to the east and
northeast tonight, but seas will remain very steep through
Wednesday night due to continuing west swell and fresh southerly
swell.
Fronts will move onshore Thursday and Friday. The fronts won't be
strong, but very heavy west to northwest swell will develop Friday,
and this will bring very steep seas, heavy surf, and hazardous bar
conditions to the area Friday into Saturday afternoon. The Wavewatch
model is trending up with the swell, and is now advertising it
peaking at 27 feet at 16 seconds Friday evening. Conditions will
gradually improve beginning Sunday.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
ORZ029>031.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday below 3000 feet
in the for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ024.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday above 2500 feet
in the for ORZ024.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ023.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday above 2500 feet
in the for ORZ025.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ027.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ028.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday above 2500 feet
in the for ORZ026.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
CAZ083>085.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday above 3000 feet in
the for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ082-083.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ080.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ081.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ081.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
- Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 PM Wednesday to
4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
- Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
BTL/NSK/BTLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1150 PM PST TUE FEB 12 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM HEAVY SNOW MOUNT SHASTA 41.32N 122.31W
02/12/2019 M6.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
AMOUNT SINCE 530 PM PST.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1212 AM PST WED FEB 13 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 NW MOUNT SHASTA 41.35N 122.36W
02/13/2019 M14.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL.
&&
BPNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
101 AM PST WED FEB 13 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM SNOW 2 SSW OBRIEN 42.05N 123.71W
02/13/2019 E2.0 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
3 HOUR TOTAL.
&&
BPNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Callahan RAWS recorded a gust to 59 mph at 13/0216 PST.
The Weed Airport RAWS recorded a gust to 65 mph at 13/0748 PST, a gust to 63 mph at 13/0848 PST, and a gust to 67 mph at 13/0948 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in California, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 799942, 799941.