Hail in California, April 29, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
207 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely
though this evening as a low pressure system moves through the
area. Additional showers are likely tomorrow across Lincoln county
as a weak cold front pushes through the region. Warmer and drier
conditions are expected for the remainder of the week with
temperatures climbing above normal by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday evening.

Widespread convection is ongoing this hour as a compact closed
low pivots out of Southern California and into the Four Corners
region. High resolution forecast models have done a decent job
today highlighting thunderstorm activity concentrated in Clark
county this afternoon, and they continue to advertise this
activity shifting into Northeast Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave
Counties this evening. Steep lapse rates and strong forcing within
a broadly diffluent flow pattern ahead of the low, along with
moderate southerly shear have promoted a few stronger updrafts.
Numerous reports of small, pea sized hail were received in the
Vegas Valley. Even had a couple reports of hail up to the size of
pennies. As activity consolidates and pushes eastward, the threat
for hail and gusty winds will shift eastward as well, favoring
Mohave county and northeast Clark county. Rainfall rates of up to
1 inch per hour are possible as well, suggesting at least an
isolated flash flood threat.

By late this evening, the closed low will push east into Arizona
and convective activity will wane. A few showers may persist into
the late evening across Lincoln and Northern Mohave counties, but
should clear by the early morning hours. Drier conditions are
expected Tuesday, however a weak cold front sagging south into
Lincoln county will be the focus of some additional showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday through late this week as mean
layer troughing over the western U.S. weakens Wednesday into
Thursday leaving nearly zonal flow over the region. By Friday, a
weak ridge will build over the Desert Southwest ahead of the next
approaching low pressure system making its way onshore of the
central Cali coast over the weekend. Breezy, northerly winds will
linger into Wednesday behind an exiting shortwave trough but lessen
over most areas through the end of the work week. Ahead of the
approaching Pacific trough, widespread southwest winds will become
gusty for the weekend with gusts of 20-30 mph. Precip chances will
begin over the higher elevations of Inyo and Esmeralda counties on
Saturday before isolated showers spread eastward across the southern
Great Basin on Sunday. Isolated chances for storms look to be
possible, especially over the higher terrain in the aforementioned
areas, both afternoons. Confidence in specifics for Sunday onward is
still on the low-end as models begin to diverge in the handling of
this system once it moves onshore.

Temps will warm well above normal by Friday/Saturday before trough
ushers in a downward trend early next week.

&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Thunderstorms with erratic and gusty
winds will begin to subside by 00Z, with northwest winds favored
through the evening. CIGs will likely remain at or above 5 Kft.
Sporadic southerly gusts are also possible, before winds subside
and favor a lighter west to southwest wind after midnight. Expect
turbulence, low level wind shear, and icing hazards with the
thunderstorms through the evening hours. Southwest winds will
increase for Tuesday with low level wind shear potentially
returning after sunset with lighter southwest winds at the surface
and stronger northwest winds just above.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Erratic wind gusts, turbulence and icing hazards
associated with thunderstorms for much of the area, with much of the
thunderstorm activity ending or increasingly confined to southwest
Utah by sunset. Some flavor of west to southwest winds expected to
takeover tonight, with gusty southwest winds expected to takeover
once again Tuesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Reports of hail...high
winds...or flooding are encouraged through this evening with
numerous thunderstorms expected in the region. &&

Short Term...Outler
Long Term...Guillet
Aviation...Steele

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
501 PM PDT MON APR 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW MESQUITE          36.80N 114.09W
04/29/2019                   CLARK              NV   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWNED BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN
            MESQUITE.

&&

JA