Tornado and High Wind in California, April 16, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
325 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moving through the region will bring precipitation
and increased winds through Tuesday. Temperatures will cool to
a little below normal on Tuesday. Dry conditions return Wednesday
with a warming trend for the latter half of the week, followed by
a slight cooldown and possible mountain showers by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
System diving south will bring precipitation to our area. Radar is
beginning to fill in to our north, in agreement with the short
term high res models, which show the main precipitation area
moving into northern portions of our area around 00Z. Winds will
pick up and precipitation will spread southward as the system
pushes through tonight and Tuesday morning. QPF guidance still
shows snow amounts around 8 inches possible at the higher
elevations north of Kings Canyon and a Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect there above 5000 ft through Tuesday morning.
Rainfall amounts will mostly be around 1 to 2 tenths of an inch in
the SJ Valley, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch in the surrounding higher
terrain. Desert locations are expected to remain mostly dry. As
winds pick up, gusts over 50 mph will be possible through and
below mountain passes in Kern County. The Wind Advisory remains in
effect there through Tuesday evening.

The passing frontal trough will lower temperatures a few degrees
below climo for Tuesday with just some lingering showers through
the afternoon. By Wednesday, models show a ridge building behind
the departing trough. This will bring dry and warming conditions
to our area through the end of the week. By Friday, temperatures
will be as much as 10 to 15 degrees above climo, with highs around
90 degrees at many SJ Valley and desert locations.

Models undercut the ridge with a weak low moving into southern CA
later Friday, while another shortwave trough drops through the
Great Basin region Saturday and Sunday followed by more shortwave
ridging over our area on Monday. There are model differences in
timing and trajectory of the synoptic features, but we can
generally expect a slight cooldown for the weekend, with a return
of some showers, mainly over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR in the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent higher terrain through
18Z Tuesday due to showers and ceilings. IFR conditions due to rain
and snow showers with mountain obscurations over the Sierra Nevada
through 03Z Wednesday. IFR also expected over the Kern County
mountains due to showers and mountain obscurations, mainly after 06Z
Tuesday. Local gusts around 40-50 kts expected near the passes and
canyons in the Kern County mountains and desert at times through
Tuesday evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected over the Central
CA Interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
Tuesday ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE CAZ192-193.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday CAZ196-198-199.

&&

public...JEB
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford