Flash Flooding and Hail in Arkansas, September 24 to 25, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
649 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.UPDATE...

Update to include the 12z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

Currently, VFR conditions prevail at all locations, however MVFR
conditions will overspread TAF locations as ceilings lower and
visibilities reduce due to SHRA/TSRA. Convection will continue to
develop over southwest and west AR and move northeast across the
state today. Winds will be easterly at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 413 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Surface observational data suggests a slow moving cold front was
sagging southward across portions of north central AR early this
Tuesday morning. North of this boundary, temperatures were in the
lower 60s with dew points in the upper 50s. Along and south of the
boundary, temperatures and dew points were in the lower to middle
70s. Current dew point depressions are less than 1 deg C immediately
along and south of the boundary, thus I think areas of fog will
develop towards daybreak including low-level stratus across the
aforementioned area. Looking at regional radar reflectivity, showers
and thunderstorms were already developing along a stalled portion of
the frontal boundary across eastern OK. This precipitation is
expected to expand in coverage and move into western AR which may
improve visibilities in some locations this morning.

Looking aloft, ridging was centered over the FL panhandle with a
closed low over the Desert Southwest and a secondary closed low over
New England. Closer to home, the ridge axis begins to shift east
allowing for southwesterly flow to recommence. Upper level vorticity
moving through the flow should interact with the front to trigger
additional shower and thunderstorm development across AR this
afternoon. At the surface, drier air will filter into portions of
central AR before the front becomes quasi-stationary. Late Tuesday,
the front begins to lift north as a warm front as southerly winds
return to the Natural State.

Wednesday, upper flow becomes northwesterly as the upper ridge moves
south into the eastern Gulf as pronounced troughing moves into the
Northern Plains. An active upper level flow regime will allow
impulses to move through and interact with a surface front to
trigger additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Once again
cooler air will move towards northern AR late in the short term.
PoPs will remain highs across western and northern AR through early
Thursday. At this time, severe weather does not appear likely and
overall rain amounts will average less than half an inch.

High temperatures across northern and northwestern AR will be very
comfortable today with readings topping out in the mid 70s. Central
and southern AR will be in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Abundant
cloud cover is expected today which will help temperatures feel a
little cooler. With return flow becoming established on
Wednesday, temperatures and moisture will be on the increase,
resulting in highs in the 80s across the north and near 90 to the
lower 90s central and south. Overnight lows will also begin to
creep upwards each day in response to higher moisture returning
across the state. By early Thursday, a frontal boundary dips into
portions of northern AR.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Similar to the current setup across the country, Thursday will
feature a brief intrusion by a cold front from the north with upper
level ridging to the southeast and a progressive trough across the
northern US. Temperatures across northern Arkansas(north of the
front) will be a bit cooler while temperatures across southern areas
remain well above normal. Rain chances will be confined to mainly
northern areas, closest to the front.

By Friday, as surface ridging shifts eastward, the front will lift
back to the north. Aloft, a closed low will begin to open and lift
northeastward as the ridge across the southeast expands
northwestward over the area. By this weekend, rain chances would be
limited to northwestern parts of the state with mostly dry
conditions and above normal temperatures expected areawide as the
upper ridge sets up shop. Beyond Monday, the H500 ridge looks to
remain in place across the region which will keep hot and dry
conditions present into the 7-10 day period...

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...JONES

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
433 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
433 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning
across Arkansas. While there may be strong storm this afternoon
widespread severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

A few thunderstorms will be possible across mainly northern Arkansas
through mid-week. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Some
storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

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