Showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon of the 6th across central and eastern Oklahoma, and became more widespread and intense during the evening and overnight. This precipitation continued into the morning hours of the 7th across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon of the 6th across central and eastern Oklahoma, and became more widespread and intense during the evening and overnight. This precipitation continued into the morning hours of the 7th across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Widespread one to three inch rainfall amounts occurred from this activity, with three to five inches falling across portions of northeastern Oklahoma and far northwestern Arkansas. This heavy rainfall resulted in localized flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 6, 11:33 PM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1133 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019
.DISCUSSION...
The discussion regarding the 06Z TAF forecast follows...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Poor IFR or blo flight conditions ongoing across the region ahead
of a cold front. Behind the cold front, flight conditions will
improve gradually and will eventually return to VFR during to the
day on Thursday. Strong north winds, with gusts 20 to 35 kts, will
affect much of E OK behind fropa overnight. Winds not quite as
strong over in NW AR.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 924 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
The much advertised strong cold front had finally reached Osage
county of Northeast Oklahoma at 03z this evening. Ahead of the
front...widespread rain showers with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms remained ongoing across the majority of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Latest mesoanalysis indicated
that the elevated instability had weakened some late this evening
which was evident by the reduced number of lightning strikes
compared to 00z. In response...severe weather potentials have
become isolated at best and should continue to dissipate over the
next hour or so. Also with the widespread precip...precipitable
water values around 1.5 inches continued to hold across the CWA
which has allowed for heavy to very heavy rainfall to develop
across the region this evening...with some locations already
receiving an estimated 1-2 inches of rain.
Through tonight...widespread rain showers along with isolated to
scattered thunderstorm potential will continue across the CWA
overnight as the strong cold front makes its way through the
region. The greater thunder potential and widespread heavy
rainfall should shift southeast through the night with the
movement of the cold front. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches with locally higher amounts remain possible into Thursday
morning and will thus keep the current flash flood watch going.
Decided not to expand it northward this evening...since the
heaviest rains should be pushing out of far Northeast Oklahoma now
the that front has moved into the CWA. For the evening
update...have adjusted the hourly pop/wx and QPF grids based on
the mentioned the mentioned above.
Behind the cold front...gusty to strong northerly winds of up
toward 40 mph and quickly falling temperatures are expected to
spread across the CWA during the night. Temperatures by early
Thursday morning should range from the mid 30s near the Kansas
border to the mid/upper 50s just ahead of the front...along the
Red River. These winds combined with the much colder temps will
help to create wind chill values in the upper teens to near 30
degrees behind the front by Thursday morning. For the evening
update...have adjusted hourly temp/dewpoint/wind grids to account
for the timing of the front and to ingest latest trends/obs. The
rest of the forecast seems to be in good shape at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 37 44 23 51 / 100 50 0 0
FSM 49 51 29 52 / 100 90 0 0
MLC 44 46 29 51 / 100 80 10 0
BVO 36 43 17 50 / 80 30 0 0
FYV 41 45 22 48 / 100 80 0 0
BYV 37 43 24 48 / 100 80 0 0
MKO 41 45 26 51 / 100 70 0 0
MIO 33 42 21 48 / 90 40 0 0
F10 38 43 26 50 / 100 70 0 0
HHW 53 57 34 52 / 100 90 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053-
060>076.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
&&
AVIATION.....30Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 936 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071130- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 936 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 ...Widespread Heavy Rainfall Tonight into Thursday... This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Along and South of Interstate 44 and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Significant. AREA...Along and South of Interstate 44 and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and East of a Line from McAlester to Muskogee to Bentonville Arkansas. THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...Limited. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... Widespread rain showers along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue overnight tonight across much of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as a strong cold front pushes through the region. Widespread rainfall amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range with locally higher amounts of 4 to 5 plus inches remain possible tonight into Thursday morning, with the greater potentials along and east of a line from McAlester to Muskogee to Bentonville Arkansas. These rains will increase the potential for flash as well as mainstem river flooding, and a flash flood watch remains in effect for most of Eastern Oklahoma and all of Northwest Arkansas through Thursday morning. Behind the cold front, gusty northerly winds up toward 40 mph and much colder temperatures are forecast to spread into the region tonight into Thursday. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. THURSDAY...High Wind Potential. Heavy Rainfall Potential. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards. SUNDAY...Winter Weather Potential. MONDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential. TUESDAY...No Hazards. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Gusty northerly winds and sharply colder temperatures will prevail on Thursday with rains ending during the day. Additional rainfall amounts around a half inch and locally greater will be possible across far Southeast Oklahoma...which could continue flooding concerns. Cool and dry weather returns Friday with a quick warm up on Saturday. The next strong cold front arrives late Sunday with a low chance of a light wintry mix across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures are forecast to remain well below seasonal normals for early next week. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several roads were reported closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, November 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 864826.