Hail in Arkansas, May 20, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
856 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Large complex of storms continues generally along and north of
I-44 at this time, with a potentially significant flash flooding
threat developing as individual cells continue to train along and
north of the outflow boundary as it slowly pushes south. OUN
soundings from 21z and from 00z did show strengthening subsidence
layer in the mid levels likely resulting from the large MCS, which
has largely inhibited convection in the warm sector through the
evening. A recent uptick in coverage has occurred however and
given still-favorable sever weather parameters, the threat of
severe storms is by no means over. Later tonight a complex of
storms is still expected to form over west Texas and eventually
lift northeast into eastern OK roughly y09-12z, and into western
AR Tuesday morning. This line of storms will pose a damaging wind
and QLCS tornado threat.

Main forecast updates were to adjust POP and QPF forecast as
areas of NE OK and possibly extreme NW AR could see 3-5 inch rain
amounts. Lesser amounts anticipated to the south but rainfall
rates should support at least a limited flooding threat and thus
the Flash Flood Warning will be maintained.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur at the northeast
Oklahoma sites overnight, with more isolated convection elsewhere.
A squall line will then sweep through the area Tuesday morning
into early afternoon. Mainly MVFR to low VFR conditions will
prevail, with some lower conditions in storms. All sites will
become VFR later Tuesday afternoon. LLWS will be mentioned at KFSM
overnight into Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

.A few strong tornadoes possible this afternoon/evening...
.Significant flash flooding likely across NE OK into tonight...

DISCUSSION...
Warm front currently located near a Drumright, Bixby, Inola line.
Elevated strong convection continues north of the front with
mainly a large hail/heavy rainfall threat. Atmosphere is very
unstable along and south of boundary and a few isolated supercells
are still expected to develop near warm front and/or south in the
warm sector. All modes of severe weather are possible, including
a few strong tornadoes. In addition, very heavy rainfall expected
in the stronger storms overnight with a significant flooding
threat, especially north of I-44 and west of highway 75. Numerous
rivers are forecast to go into flood based on the forecast
rainfall amounts expected through Tuesday across the northern
basins.

Thunderstorms over western/central Oklahoma should become more
linear with time overnight, moving into eastern Oklahoma late
tonight. Very strong low level wind fields are expected and QLCS
tornadoes and damaging downburst winds will remain possible. The
severe threat will likely persist as convective line pushes east
into far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day
Tuesday with additional surface heating. The main thunderstorm
line is forecast to move east of northwest Arkansas by mid
afternoon with the severe threat ending.

Strong upper high will build over the southeast CONUS mid to late
week. Short waves embedded in stronger southwest flow aloft will
continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the
best chance remaining over northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  63  88 / 100  80  10  20
FSM   68  79  62  90 /  40  90  10  20
MLC   72  83  65  86 /  60  80  10  20
BVO   65  82  58  83 / 100  80  10  20
FYV   68  72  59  84 /  50  90  10  20
BYV   66  75  61  86 /  60  90  10  10
MKO   68  79  61  88 /  60  80  10  20
MIO   68  77  61  85 / 100  80  10  20
F10   69  82  63  85 /  60  80  10  20
HHW   69  79  65  86 /  30  80  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ054>074.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1042 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Mainly East Central Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of I-44 and North of I-40 .

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered severe storms will continue especially southeast of
I-44 and north of I-40. Conditions continue to support the threat
for all modes of severe weather through early Tuesday morning. A
brief lull in severe weather is possible toward the early morning
hours on Tuesday, however a line of storms is expected to re-
intensify while spreading eastward. This line of storms is likely
to move into eastern Oklahoma after 3 AM with potential for
leading edge tornadoes and locally damaging winds.

Significant flooding is likely to develop through tonight,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Flash flooding
will develop quickly due to the saturated soils, and there remains
potential for life threatening flooding across portions of
northeast Oklahoma where recent excessive rains have fallen.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning as the
line of storms advances eastward. The risk for tornadoes and
locally damaging winds will continue. Any additional heavy
rainfall will further worsen any ongoing flooding. Flooded
roadways are likely to remain an issue for several days as waters
will be slow to recede. Thunderstorm chances continue through the
week, however an organized severe weather threat is not apparent
at this time.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Weather warnings highlighting significant severe and flooding potential
are likely through the night. The severe weather risk will remain
present through Tuesday morning.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N TULSA               36.19N 95.92W
05/20/2019                   TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROADWAY COMPLETELY FLOODED AT 41ST NORTH AND LEWIS AVE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAREMORE               36.31N 95.62W
05/20/2019                   ROGERS             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MAJOR STREET FLOODING IN CLAREMORE. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT
            RELAYED BY MEDIA, WITH PICTURE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N TULSA               36.22N 95.92W
05/20/2019                   TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TURLEY FD CONDUCTING WATER RESCUE AT 66TH ST NORTH AND
            LEWIS AVE. MULTIPLE STREET CLOSURES IN TURLEY DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1136 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ063-068-069-210500-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
1136 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN ADAIR AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1136 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northeast of Chloeta to Scraper. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Grove...
West Siloam Springs...            Colcord...
Kansas...                         Watts...
Oaks...                           Leach...
Chloeta...                        Scraper...
Twin Oaks...                      Dodge...
Cayuga...                         Lake Eucha State Park...
Zena...                           Natural Falls State Park...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3611 9456 3593 9508 3616 9503
      3616 9501 3629 9501 3652 9496 3662 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 241DEG 34KT 3649 9489 3610 9485

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE ONETA              36.05N 95.67W
05/20/2019                   WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

            MAJOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
05/20/2019                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 69 AND PARK ST IN PRYOR CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

JDS