A stalled frontal zone led to training showers and thunderstorms causing minor flash flooding during the early morning hours on May 20th with a few driveways and roads washed out in Worcester and Woodbury.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A stalled frontal zone led to training showers and thunderstorms causing minor flash flooding during the early morning hours on May 20th with a few driveways and roads washed out in Worcester and Woodbury.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 20, 4:02 AM EST, 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 502 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A pre frontal trough and surface cold front crossing the area today will interact with heat and moisture to bring another round of strong to locally severe thunderstorms. The primary threats will be isolated damaging winds and brief heavy downpours. Cooler and drier weather returns for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Monday...Pre frontal trough pushes across our forecast area this morning and will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as surface cold front approaches and crosses the area this evening. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected, with main threat being strong winds with perhaps some small hail. Ongoing convection this morning may damper the surface based instability a bit. But, should see enough clearing after morning convection moves out for some destabilization and stronger storms this afternoon. Across Vermont, maximum temperatures should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, and with dewpoints nearing 60 will see CAPE values surpass 1000 J/kg from the Champlain valley eastward. Window is a bit small though, mainly 15-21z. Good upper level support as well with strong jet moving overhead today. Additional brief heavy rainfall is possible, and some areas have already had heavy rainfall in the past 24 hours, so will need to monitor for possible flash flooding concerns. After showers move east of the region this morning, looks like convection will fire between about 11 and noon. As cold front pushes through during the evening hours, bulk of the stronger storms will be pushed off to our east as well. SPC has parts of our area in Slight risk for today, mainly eastern and southern Vermont. Overnight as flow turns northwesterly behind the departing cold front, will have some orographically enhanced showers during the overnight hours. Showers may even linger into Tuesday a bit as upper trough and upper level shortwave cross the area. Tuesday will also be much cooler than today, highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 60s, about 20 degrees cooler. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 408 AM EDT Monday...Quieter weather returns for the short-term period as vertically stacked low pressure exits thru the Canadian Maritimes, and a dry nwly flow develops across northern NY and New England. Resulting air mass will be relatively cool/crisp, as 850mb temperatures fall to - 1C to +1C across the North Country by 12Z Wednesday. Any lingering rain showers should end before midnight Tuesday night, with gradual clearing expected throughout the overnight period. Should see Tuesday night lows in the low-mid 40s, with highs on Wednesday in the mid 60s following MOS-based consensus. Continued NW winds on Wednesday at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will contribute to dewpoints falling into the 30s with PBL mixing/deepening throughout the day. High pressure moves in from the west late in the day and crests across the region Wednesday night, resulting in lessening wind speeds toward early evening. Wednesday night will continue dry with low temperatures again mainly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 408 AM EDT Monday...Relatively good consistency noted between the operational 00Z GFS/ECMWF this cycle. Two precipitation events are anticipated across the North Country. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded in WNWLY flow with 80-90kt 500mb jet will traverse the region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. With sfc low moving eswd along 850mb frontal zone, appears mesoscale and synoptic-setting will be favorable for showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. Carried a slight chance of thunder at this point, and we'll need to monitor for possible strong thunderstorms if low-level moisture return is adequate for higher instability than presently indicated. Valley highs on Thursday presently expected in the lower 70s. Should see a period of dry weather for Friday and Friday night with seasonable temperatures. Next shortwave trough arrives Saturday/Saturday night with periods of showers and PoPs 60-70%. Early indications suggest drier weather returns for the latter half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Showers and thunderstorms continue overnight across Vermont, ending by about 12z. Further convection is expected from 15-00z Monday across Southern and Central Vermont. Some storms will be strong to severe this afternoon. Strong turbulence and gusty winds to 35 kts near any convection. Winds will trend southwesterly later this morning. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Neiles
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 400 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-210800- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia- Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor- Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- 400 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible today across Vermont and Essex County in New York. The combination of warm temperatures and increased moisture will create an environment favorable for thunderstorm development. The primary threat will be localized strong to damaging wind gusts. In addition, frequent lightning and heavy down pours are likely with the stronger convective elements. The severe weather threat should quickly dissipate by sunset. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1150 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019
VTZ004-006>008-010-017-018-200445-
Essex-Caledonia-Eastern Chittenden-Washington-Lamoille-Eastern
Addison-Orange-
1150 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LAMOILLE...SOUTHERN
CALEDONIA...NORTHERN ORANGE...SOUTHERN ESSEX...NORTHEASTERN
ADDISON...SOUTHEASTERN CHITTENDEN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
At 1149 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Moretown,
moving east at 40 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm, in addition to
heavy rainfall.
Locations impacted include...
Barre, Montpelier, Calais, Orange, Waterbury Village, Websterville,
Worcester, Middlesex, Marshfield, Cabot Village, Washington, Ryegate,
Cabot, Moretown, Newbury, Newbury Village, Williamstown, E F Knapp
State Airport, Plainfield and East Montpelier.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 4434 7185 4435 7191 4434 7193 4434 7198
4432 7203 4430 7204 4428 7206 4423 7205
4419 7207 4413 7203 4411 7206 4410 7205
4410 7203 4409 7205 4408 7203 4406 7207
4402 7209 4412 7296 4448 7288 4436 7183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 277DEG 35KT 4424 7270
BanacosSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
104 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019
VTZ004-007-008-010-200530-
Essex-Caledonia-Washington-Orange-
104 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CALEDONIA...
NORTHEASTERN ORANGE...SOUTHERN ESSEX AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...
At 103 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lower
Waterford, moving east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm, along with
brief heavy rainfall.
Locations impacted include...
St. Johnsbury, Lyndon, Waterford, Ryegate, Gilman, Kirby, Barnet,
Concord, Groton Village, Ricker State Park, Lunenburg, Peacham,
Groton, Danville, Lower Waterford, Lyndonville Village, Guildhall,
Victory, Stannard and Walden.
LAT...LON 4452 7159 4450 7158 4449 7160 4448 7164
4444 7166 4441 7171 4440 7179 4438 7181
4435 7182 4434 7187 4435 7191 4432 7203
4430 7204 4428 7207 4424 7205 4419 7207
4418 7228 4452 7219 4454 7157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0503Z 264DEG 32KT 4434 7196
BanacosThe Burlington radar (KCXX), 51 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:43 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency managers report several minor washouts of roads and driveways.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Vermont in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Vermont, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 825145.