Heavy rain brought flooding to the area during the middle part of February 2019.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the area during the middle part of February 2019.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 11, 11:46 PM CST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1146 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .AVIATION... Rain will continue across the area overnight with mainly MVFR to IFR conditions. Low clouds and visibilities are expected. A cold front will move through overnight and will decrease cloud cover and rain chances during mid to late morning. Conditions will become VFR for the last half of the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 526 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019) UPDATE... Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below. AVIATION... Widespread rainfall along with MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected through 12/12z. A cold front will sweep across the area changing southerly winds to NW rather quickly with sustained winds 10-15kts and gusts to 20-25kts. VFR conditions and clearing skies will return by 12/18z after cold frontal passage. PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019) DISCUSSION... Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a strong shortwave trough over the Texas panhandle, moving to the east- southeast towards Arkansas. This trough was spreading strong large scale forcing for ascent from north Texas northeast across eastern Oklahoma and over all of Arkansas. Afternoon radar estimates combined with weather observations across the state indicated that an axis of three to five inches of rain fell from northeast Arkansas to the southwest over central and southwest Arkansas. In addition to the lift provided by the shortwave trough, there was a clear connection to the tropical Pacific Ocean...an upper level atmospheric river often referred to as the "Pineapple Express". The lift combined with this atmospheric river of moisture will continue to cause rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop from Texarkana to the northeast over much of the state of Arkansas through tonight. Heavy rain will continue along the axis of maximum rainfall from overnight through this morning across Arkansas. Early afternoon radar and infrared satellite imagery showed that redevelopment was already occurring and a second round of heavy rainfall may fall over the same locations that have already received 3 to 5 inches over the past 24 hours. Additional heavy rainfall will likely lead to additional flash flooding through this evening, and will leave the flash flood watch in effect from central Arkansas northeast through northeast Arkansas as a result. Several county roads were already flooded, and it may become difficult to distinguish already present areal flooding from additional flash flooding due to the next round of heavy rainfall. We will likely have a mixture of both types of warnings through this evening with the bottom line being...flooding will continue or worsen through this evening for central and northeast Arkansas. WPC has placed central and northeast Arkansas under a rare High Risk of flash flooding for this evening as a result of these factors. Models indicate that the axis of heaviest rainfall may shift off to the southeast after midnight tonight which would be ideal as southeast Arkansas has received less than 1 inch of rain for the most part. A shift of the heaviest rainfall to the southeast would likely not cause any flooding problems over southeast Arkansas, so did not expand the flood watch southeast with this forecast package. As the axis of heaviest rainfall shifts to the southeast a cold front will move southeast across Arkansas, bringing cooler and thankfully drier air across the state. Unfortunately this will not occur until Tuesday morning...but behind the front it does appear dry enough to completely shut off additional rainfall. We've got a rough 12 hours to get through here rainfall wise, but it will shut of quickly Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon hours of the day. Behind the front on Tuesday we will dry out, and it will become quite windy with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph. This is just below our criteria for issuing a wind advisory, so we will hold off on that for now. The winds will definitely be brisk and out of the west-northwest with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Weak shortwave ridging will lead to a couple of dry days across Arkansas with Wednesday remaining completely dry and Thursday offering up only a small chance of rain as another shortwave trough approaches Arkansas from the west Thursday night. This shortwave trough will not dig as far south and will be pretty fast moving, so do not anticipate any flooding threat with this end of week upper level storm system. It will send another cold front across the state, and depending on how cold we get, this could set the stage for some wintry precipitation Sunday night into Monday of next week. For the wintry weather potential will not delve into a lot of detail here because the models have been wildly swinging back and forth between a high impact winter storm to an all rain event over the past 48 hours. Not to pick on the GFS, but the 06Z GFS indicated almost no snowfall across Arkansas while the 12Z GFS places an axis of 16 inches of snow over southern Arkansas. At this time have a 30 percent chance of precipitation in the forecast with rain changing over to snow from Monday into Monday night. This forecast will likely change several times before we get to Sunday - Monday night, but we will continue to watch this system closely and will be quick to revise the forecast as models hopefully converge on a solution in the coming days. Cavanaugh && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight FOR Baxter-Cleburne- Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Independence-Izard-Jackson- Lawrence-Lonoke-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski- Randolph-Saline-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell. && Aviation...51
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 903 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121100- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 903 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Widespread rainfall will continue into the early overnight period before rainfall begins to exit to the east by early Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts should remain less than 1 inch fore most areas...though some isolated areas could see over an inch of additional rainfall. Storm total rainfall amounts ranged from 2 to more than 5 inches from west central Arkansas into northeast portions of the state. AS a result...there will remain a threat for areal flooding with plenty of standing water...in additional to rivers and creeks already flooding. Use caution on area roadways overnight as some roads may become or remain impassible due to high water. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday Winds will increase Tuesday morning...becoming breezy at times. Expect northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph...with gusts exceeding 25 mph occasionally through midday Tuesday. This could cause rough conditions on area bodies of water...and could also bring down some trees in areas of very saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall. Winds will then begin to diminish Tuesday afternoon and evening. While there will remain some ongoing river flooding across the state...expect the threat for additional hazardous weather will become low by Tuesday night. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 62
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita River at Arkadelphia on February 12.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the White River at Newport on February 12.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the White River at Des Arc on February 12.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita River at Camden on February 13.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 809898, 809901, 809907, 809900.