A storm force low pressure system in the western Gulf of Alaska weakened to 972 MB by the afternoon of 3/13. A strong associated front moved over the Panhandle on the evening of 3/13 with a low level jet 60 to 70 mph out of the southeast.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A storm force low pressure system in the western Gulf of Alaska weakened to 972 MB by the afternoon of 3/13. A strong associated front moved over the Panhandle on the evening of 3/13 with a low level jet 60 to 70 mph out of the southeast. Surface winds were observed up to 65 mph for Prince of Wales and the Ketchikan area during that evening although no damage was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 13, 2:36 PM AKST, 24 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2019
.SHORT TERM...An impressive 970 mb low in the western gulf can be
seen on satellite imagery moving NW along with a storm force front
extended along the gulf coast impacting SE Alaska. The front will
continue to move across the panhandle this evening through tonight
with the main impact being very strong winds, especially across
the southern panhandle. The High Wind Warning for Prince of Wales
Island and the southern inner channels, including Ketchikan,
remains as expected with wind gusts to 60 mph anticipated to occur
between 4 PM and 10PM Wednesday night as the front moves from
west to east.
Rain will also continue to spread across the panhandle through
Wednesday night before shifting to showers behind the front.
Temperatures have warmed this afternoon from the upper 30s to low
40s and are not expected to cool much tonight. The exception is
the Klondike Highway near White Pass where temperatures will
remain in the 20s and still expecting 3 to 5 inches of snow there.
Have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for the Haines Highway
due to the warmer temperatures, although some snow may be
possible if cooling occurs as precipitation falls with dew points
currently in the 20s. Colder air will advect in behind the front
with showers developing in a more convective regime. Slight chance
of thunderstorms will be possible along the outer coast Thursday
morning. Across the northern and central inner channels, showers
will likely produce a mix of rain and snow Thursday. Not expecting
any significant accumulations of snow. A surface ridge will build
in over the panhandle later Thursday which could provide a brief
break again in the precipitation.
Late Thursday into Friday morning a warm front will lift north
across the gulf. A strong thermal gradient along the front will
likely form a gale force barrier jet along the northern gulf
coast. Rain will also move into the NE gulf coast. Warmer air will
continue to push into the panhandle Friday. Expect the front to
become occluded later Friday with more rain spreading across the
panhandle.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ as of 10 pm Tuesday.
Longwave pattern headed into the weekend and early next week will
be highlighted by very strong anomalous ridging over western
Canada, with deep upstream troughing south of the Aleutians to
just north of Hawaii. Strong deep layer southerly flow east of the
long wave trough axis will direct the primary storm track into
the Gulf of Alaska. Ensembles and operational models are in
relatively good agreement on this pattern leading to higher
confidence in warm temperatures, and periods of heavier rainfall
through early next week. GEFS ensemble probabilities of
atmospheric river conditions are favorable at several time
periods, once on Friday and again Sunday into Monday. The question
will be, how strongly does the ridge build over the region? A few
operational solutions indicate the ridge will be strong enough to
eventually push the best moisture transport back to the west,
leading to a potentially record warm but drier period early next
week. At this time range it is almost impossible to pin point any
dry periods so kept high rain chances through the period.
What we can say with high confidence is that a big warm up is on
the way. Ensemble 850mb temperature anomalies are 2 to 3 standard
deviations about normal by Monday of next week. This could
potentially lead to high temperatures well into the 50s for many
areas depending on the amount of mixing that occurs. Strong south
to southeast flow in the low levels and an active storm track will
lead to windy conditions at times from Friday through Tuesday
with gales likely over the outside waters.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ026.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027.
Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ021>023.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
Thursday for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ051-052.
Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-053.
&&
DDH/DEL
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Ketchikan Tide Gauge observed gusts to 67 mph during the evening. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 806315.