Alaska, 2019

High Wind in Alaska, January 31, 2019

January 31, 2019 · NWS AJK · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Strong arctic high pressure built into the Yukon Territory on 1/31 through 2/1. This caused a Taku wind event for Downtown Juneau and Douglas on the evening of 1/31 into the morning of 2/1.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

Strong arctic high pressure built into the Yukon Territory on 1/31 through 2/1. This caused a Taku wind event for Downtown Juneau and Douglas on the evening of 1/31 into the morning of 2/1. One gust at the AJ Dock got to 90 mph. No damage was reported.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 2:44 PM AKST, 6 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 2:44 PM AKST, 6 hours 16 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
244 PM AKST Thu Jan 31 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday/...An arctic front with deep layer
cold advection is pushing south across SE Alaska, bringing in its
wake clear skies and much colder temperatures, along with very
strong winds across the inner channels. An upper trough over NW
Canada is digging toward the panhandle and will continue to dive
south through Saturday. According to satellite imagery Thursday
afternoon, the arctic front has pushed through the northern
panhandle just north of Angoon. A southern stream trough will
continue to move east across the SE gulf Thursday night before
exiting the area by Friday morning. Rain currently being reported
from Prince of Wales to Ketchikan will gradually diminish
overnight from west to east as the arctic front continues its
southward push.

Main forecast concerns through the next few days will be the cold
air outbreak throughout the panhandle, and northerly outflow
winds, especially across the northern inner channels. Temperatures
will gradually cool tonight through Saturday. Expect temps to be
15-20 degrees below normal by Saturday morning. Across the far
north, wind chills below zero could be a factor in the windier
spots Friday and Saturday nights. A wind chill advisory has been
issued for zone 18 near White Pass for wind chills to -45 F.
Northerly winds have increased quickly behind the front with storm
force winds being reported through Lynn Canal. Expect S Lynn to
push upwards of 65 kt through Friday before gradually diminishing
into the weekend. Gales are expected to continue across the
central inner channels through a similar period, and could reach
storm force out of Cross Sound. With these cold temperatures and
strong winds, locally heavy freezing spray will develop over the
northern channels tonight through Friday night, with some freezing
spray into the central areas. High seas may also build to near 15
ft by the persistent strong N winds in Lynn Canal through N
Chatham Strait. A High Wind Warning has also been issued for the
downtown Juneau and Douglas area starting tonight 06z through
Saturday night. Anticipate a Taku wind event developing Friday
with a good critical layer setting up then.

Model agreement has been quite good, so confidence is above
average in this arctic outflow event. Did not need to make many
changes to the inherited forecast.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Cold, windy and dry conditions continue into Sunday with mid level
ridge over the AK gulf and deep arctic air flowing in from
western Canada. A surface low/front does move into the ridge
Saturday night into Sunday but as of now stays well to the west of
the panhandle. This wave will likely bump up outer coast gulf
winds. Strong northerly and outflow winds and freezing spray will
begin to diminish Sunday night into Monday as pressure gradient
weakens. Temps will increase but still be well below freezing.
Next low overing riding surface ridge possible moves into the NE
gulf Sunday night into Monday but large amount of model spread
with this feature. In fact all potential waves upstream of the
gulf ridge are showing large differences between models and from
run to run. GFS most aggressive moving in the next wave. If this
solution is correct could see some good snow with an over running
event, however don't count on it yet. Used a blend of GFS/NAM for
Saturday then transitioned to WPC for the rest of the long range
with some GFS/ECMWF on Sunday. Forecast confidence is below
average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Saturday
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Friday afternoon
     for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind through Friday afternoon for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Hurricane Force Wind Warning for PKZ013.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012-022.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-031>034-043-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-035-036-041-042-052.

&&

DDH/PRB

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Event by event

1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island

When
January 31, 9:00 PM AKST to 11:59 PM AKST
Where
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island forecast zone
Measured
78 kt (90 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Official NWS Observations

On 1/31 at 2048, SDIA2 wind gust 65 mph. At 2/1 0213 JLXA2 (library) observed a wind gust 61 mph. At 2/1 0302 AJ Dock gust 90 mph. No damage reported anywhere. Impact was that the LeConte of the AMHS canceled sailing for Lynn Canal on 1/31 and 2/1.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2019

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 798425.