High Wind in Alaska, December 8 to 10, 2019

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 PM AKST Sat Dec 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of systems will keep weather pattern active for the west
coast through Tuesday night. The first system is currently moving
north along the coast while the second system will move in on
Monday. A warming trend will continue tonight and Sunday across
the Interior. A weather system will move north across the Interior
on Sunday, bringing a quick shot of precipitation. The Arctic
Coast will see increased winds tonight as a front moves over the
area resulting in blowing snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall, the models initialized well and are in decent agreement
out through the weekend. Thereafter, the models all depict a
strong low moving through the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday;
however, there is still some disagreement in the strength and
track of this system.

Central and Eastern Interior: Cloud cover associated with a low in
the Bering Sea continues to push to the north today. This has
caused temperatures to warm across the Interior. A trough on the
north side of the Alaska Range has caused strong gap winds to
develop in the Alaska Range along with strong easterly winds to
develop in areas that typically see Tanana Valley Jet winds.
Southerly winds with gusts of 60 to 65 mph will persist in the
Alaska Range into the day on Sunday before weakening Sunday
afternoon, while easterly winds with gusts to around 50 mph are
expected near Delta Junction. The Wind Advisories for zones 223
and 226 look to be in good shape. I also added a Wind Advisory for
zone 225. Another (likely stronger) round of winds is expected to
develop in the same areas on Monday. A front will move to the
north across the Interior on Sunday. This system will bring a
quick shot of snow to areas from Fairbanks north and west.
Fairbanks will see less than one inch of snow. Areas north and
west of Fairbanks will see 2 to 4 inches. Temperatures aloft
south of Fairbanks will have an above freezing layer as the
precipitation moves in. Downsloping should prevent precipitation
from making it to the ground south of Fairbanks; however, it is
not out of the question that areas from Fairbanks south could
briefly see some light freezing rain. Fairbanks may also briefly
see freezing rain early Sunday morning; however, we expect that
if freezing rain does fall it will quickly change over to snow.
Strong winds will develop along the Dalton and Elliott Highways
north of Fairbanks on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior: A 960 mb low is currently
situated near Nunivak Island. This low will track northeast this
evening, passing just south of St. Lawrence Island around
midnight tonight and reaching the Gulf of Anadyr by Sunday
afternoon. This system will bring snowfall to coastal areas north
of the Seward Peninsula this evening as well as much of the
western Interior. Easterly to southeasterly winds with gusts of
40 to 60 mph will continue along the coast this evening, with
winds gradually dissipating after midnight. The strong winds
winds will persist for St. Lawrence Island and Diomede on Sunday,
but will become more southerly. The next low to affect the west
coast will move into Bristol Bay early Monday morning. Easterly
winds south of the Bering Strait will begin to increase after
midnight Sunday night as this system advances. Winds south of the
Bering Strait look peak Monday afternoon and evening, before
gradually diminishing on Tuesday. Strong east to southeasterly
winds will likely persist over St. Lawrence Island and Diomede
into Wednesday morning. This system looks to bring stronger
easterly winds than the system that is currently moving through.
In addition to winds, snow and blowing snow is expected. Winter
headlines are likely needed along the west coast for this system;
however, will hold off in issuing due to headlines currently in
place.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Easterly winds will increase this
evening along the coast as a front moves north over the area.
Guidance suggests that blowing snow that will reduce the
visibility to one half mile or less at times will develop when
the wind picks up. I opted to post Winter Weather Advisories along
the coast in anticipation of the blowing snow. Some light snow
will move across the area tonight and Sunday. 1 to 3 inches of
snow is possible west of Wainwright as well as in the Brooks
Range. Southerly gap winds will likely pick up for tonight and
Sunday. Winds will diminish Sunday night; however another round of
strong winds is expected to develop Monday evening.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Minor rises are expected
along the west coast on Sunday as winds become more southerly;
however, winds will quickly become easterly again Sunday evening
and water levels along the west coast will go down.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ209.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

DEC 19