An overrunning snow event for the Chilkat Valley including Haines.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
An overrunning snow event for the Chilkat Valley including Haines.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 17, 2:56 PM AKST, 10 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
256 PM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019
.SHORT TERM...Vertically stacked low moving eastward just south
of the Gulf of Alaska. By Thursday the low has managed get east to
near 143 west or about 600 nm west of Haida Gwaii. The associated
frontal band will move into the outer coastal area Wednesday
morning. A pre-frontal trough will be moving into the panhandle
Tuesday night. As the low gets closer to the panhandle there will
be several small vorticity lobes and small troughs rotating about
the low. These troughs should pass along the outer coast and
spread chance to likely precipitation chances.
Overall rain will be in the forecast for Southeast Alaska,
although the northern portion of Lynn Canal it should stay as
snow. Minor accumulations of up to 2 inches in the day/night
periods to Wednesday night, though further out the Haines road may
have some better snow totals.
The Wednesday frontal band will have high end small craft to
minimum gale force winds, with the stronger winds in the northeast
gulf. Not expecting more significant winds through the inner
channels.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday night/...We begin this
forecast period with a closed low over the central Gulf well to
the southwest of the panhandle. While we are still seeing
discrepancies between the models, decided to lean toward the
ECMWF for consistency as per the WPC discussion, they favored that
particular model for the start of their extended forecast period.
This particular forecast has the low progressing northward and
weakening before the circulation center comes over land near
Yakutat Saturday. This system will maintain a wet pattern across
the region under southerly flow. Most locations will remain warm
enough to maintain p-type as rain in the central and southern
panhandle. At least a rain/snow mix could be possible for some
locations as far south as Juneau, Hoonah and Tenakee Springs with
best chances of seeing occasional switch to just snow at least
back in the Mendenhall Valley away from the water. Haines/Skagway
also may cool enough at times to support accumulating snow, but as
per normal, biggest impacts look to be at the higher elevations
of the highways. Best chance for any sort of break from wet
weather looks to be brief at best on Monday as another low which
crossed over the Aleutians will already be on its way. Have opted
not to really advertise this in the forecast as enough
uncertainty exists within the models to stick with persistence,
but thought it worthy of a mention for future forecast
considerations.
Aside from some small craft criteria winds along the coastal
waters at onset of this period, winds do not look to be very
impactful during the period at this point. For obvious reasons,
will need to monitor the track and evolution of not just the low
at the onset of this period but also the second one next week to
determine if this will change.
Forecast confidence in timing/duration of any particular round of
precipitation is below average, however, confidence that the long
term will be featured by more wet than dry weather is fairly good.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041-042-053.
&&
Bezenek/JDR
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Over running snow event starts early on the 18th and continues to early on the 19th. Snow amounts at daybreak in the Haines area was 7 to 8 inches. By late afternoon roughly a foot of snow had fallen. Final 2 day totals in the Haines area were 12 to 15.5 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 864515.