Hail in Wisconsin, June 6, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
615 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Much advertised MCS rolling across the Dakotas/northern MN early
this morning per latest GOES IR and regional radar mosaic. This MCS
will continue rolling east but should weaken in time as it moves
into the area this morning as it pulls away from better CAPE pool
support. Forecast challenge is whether we will see redevelopment of
convection (mainly west of the Mississippi River this afternoon)
along the MCS outflow/cold frontal boundary sinking south through
the area. Bulk of latest CAMs do develop convection this afternoon
just south of our area across central IA. However, will have to keep
an eye across our northeast IA counties for the possibility of
earlier development this afternoon. Could see a brief window for
severe weather across that area with large hail and damaging wind
being the main threat. Otherwise, look for high temperatures today
in the 70s east of the Mississippi River, to the upper 70s/lower 80s
west of the river.

Lingering chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will exist
mainly south of I-90 tonight as the cold frontal boundary hangs up
across southern WI into IA. Plan on lows ranging from the
lower/middle 50s north of I-94, to the lower/middle 60s south of I-
90.

Shower/thunderstorm chances will continue Thursday, increasing
Thursday night as a mid-level trough propagates from the Plains into
the region. Look for highs Thursday in the middle 70s to lower 80s
and lows Thursday night dropping back into the 50s/60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

NAM/GFS have the mid-level wave pushing east of the area by Friday
afternoon but the ECMWF model is slower, lingering
shower/thunderstorms through the day. As a compromise, will carry
mid-range pops through the morning, tapering off through the
afternoon.

Mid-level ridge/surface high over the Great Lakes should keep the
area mainly dry through the weekend. However, any have to watch for
a couple weak disturbances rippling through the ridge for small rain
chances. Look for highs Saturday and Sunday in the 70s to the lower
80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase once again
Monday/Monday night as a mid-level trough/surface cold front pushes
into the region from the Plains.

Tuesday will see diminishing shower/thunderstorm chances as the
front exits east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Watching a weakening band of showers and thunderstorms approach
RST from the west. That weakening trend should continue, with just
a brief shower or storm and probably a burst of 30 knot gusty
winds as it passes. LSE may well end up dry this go around, but
can't rule out a brief shower or storm through 15Z or so based on
current trends. Overall conditions will remain VFR with some
clearing possible into the afternoon. Any additional showers and
storms increasingly look like they will develop south of LSE and
RST, with a cold front turning winds to the north and clearing
things out by late afternoon and evening. Can't rule out a little
fog developing later tonight, but confidence in that is quite low
at this time.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Lawrence

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
338 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-071200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
338 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A weakening complex of storms will move into the area this
morning. A few wind gusts to 40 mph and small hail will be
possible with these storms.

There will be another chance for storms developing between 3 and
10 pm today, mainly west of the Mississippi River. A few could
become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy
rain. However, widespread severe storms are not expected at this
time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm chances will continue through this weekend into
early next week. The threat for severe weather looks low at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

DAS